Prize was there on a plate but Martin has lost his appetite

As we broke up from the morning session of negotiations, someone from the Fianna Fail team told us that lunch was ready upstairs. We wandered up to the Leinster House cafe for the tea and sandwiches where a section was cordoned off for us. We waited a few minutes for our hosts and then, waiting no longer, tucked into the grub. It was a modest menu. There was only one missing ingredient: Fianna Fail.

No one from Fianna Fail turned up. The food was there, but the hosts were missing. No Micheal Martin. No Barry Cowen. No Michael McGrath. No Charlie McConalogue and no Jim O'Callaghan. We sampled the Fianna Fail fare with relish, but alone. We were welcome, but unloved. There was none of the schmoozing, the "let's get to know each other, we'll soon be united in government" feel of Fine Gael lunches.

The day before, in Government Buildings, we had been unable to avoid the attention of Cabinet members. One Independent complained that he couldn't even go to the loo without being tailed by a minister.

We should have twigged a terrible truth. The two major parties' appetites for government formation could not have been more different. Fine Gael was obsessive, pulling out all the stops to hang on to power. Fianna Fail was less hungry. It could afford to wait. Fianna Fail's visitors could have lunch, but that did not mean the soldiers of destiny would feel obliged to join us in the cafe. Or in the loo.

Not for the first time we were beginning to wonder: Were these guys really serious?

Perhaps we had been too optimistic about the prospect of a deal with Fianna Fail. Had we turned a blind eye to an obvious truth way back on the Dail's first sitting day? Fianna Fail was happy to lose a precious Dail vote to land Kildare South TD Sean O Fearghail into the Ceann Comhairle's chair. Old Fianna Fail would have tempted a Labour Party TD, a maverick Independent or even a Fine Gael opponent into the €160,000-a-year job. Not this time. It accepted the loss of a crucial vote in the Taoiseach stakes. Micheal wanted his man in the Dail chair even though it widened the gap between him and Enda Kenny.

There were other straws in the wind. We had queried the absence of Micheal at some earlier talks but were pacified when it was explained he would be there at the endgame when decisions needed to be made. We noted another crucial difference: Enda was at almost every session with Fine Gael.

We were even a trifle puzzled by the absence of key Fianna Fail frontbenchers from the negotiations. Martin loyalists like Billy Kelleher, Sean Fleming, Timmy Dooley and Willie O'Dea never appeared. Nor did one of its brightest and best, Dara Calleary. We were blessed with the talents and attentions of others, but it was not the first team. When Martin was there, his sparkling intelligence compensated, but when he was absent his team was less energised. We wondered what authority they carried, but dismissed such unhelpful thoughts. Fine Gael rolled out the entire Cabinet team.

The burning question among our Independent group was increasingly being asked: does Fianna Fail want power or is it going through the motions? Was it playing a longer game, intent on allowing Fine Gael to continue in office, holding a sword of Damocles over it until it was overwhelmed by an economic crisis or a political disaster? Then, it would strike. We might be mere decorations on a Grand Plan.

One of the reasons why we refused to believe we were being 'played' was because Micheal Martin is one of the most decent politicians in Leinster House. Some Independents wanted to see him lead a government because they trusted his integrity and ability. He is allergic to deception or strokes. He is urbane, convincing, able and honest. Other Independents preferred him for Taoiseach just because he was not Enda Kenny.

Nevertheless, many did not believe he could bridge the numbers gap. Martin had 43 votes. Enda had 51 (his own TDs plus Michael Lowry). The 15 Independents were kingmakers, waiting for white smoke to emerge from the endless Fine Gael/Fianna Fail conclaves.

Early last week it appeared a majority of Independents were leaning Martin's way because they were receiving messages from their constituencies not to re-elect Kenny. The clamour was not enough to elect the Fianna Fail leader but a minor Martin bandwagon began to roll.

On Wednesday evening, a few Independents believed that a serious upset was brewing. One or two wobblers suggested that others might jump ship. Martin had been working the phones but still needed a tidal wave.

Suddenly, late on Wednesday evening, as the big prize beckoned, the Fianna Fail chief blew it. An extraordinary message from a Fianna Fail "senior source" hit the media. The party shafted its well-wishers. The 'senior source' revealed that the Independents would have their last chance to elect Micheal as Taoiseach on Thursday. He would be submitting his name to the Dail for the final time.

Independents who had been leaning his way were spooked. Here was a man asking the impossible. In the middle of unfinished negotiations he was issuing an ultimatum: vote for me tomorrow or Kenny is the only game in town. Many were incensed: they had already pledged not to declare until they saw the result of Fine Gael/ Fianna Fail talks. Martin only needed to wait a week. Instead his "senior source" destroyed his chances. All the goodwill vanished. The Fianna Fail leader did not receive a single extra vote. It was game over, self- inflicted. Fine Gael could not believe its good fortune.

Perhaps Martin is a reluctant Taoiseach? Echoes of his equally likeable Fianna Fail predecessor Jack Lynch. His fellow Cork man consistently claimed that he did not wish to hold such high office, but lasted in his unwanted vocation for 13 years. It is more likely that Martin aimed to pass on the poisoned Taoiseach's chalice, but only for a few years or even months…

If that has been Martin's game all along he is in good company. This is the election almost all the parties whisper thankfully that they have lost. Sinn Fein's exit pass - it claims that "unfortunately we only won 23 seats" - is touchingly modest. The Greens came to the government formation talks and fled after a few days. The Labour Party seemingly wishes to go into opposition to rebuild. The Social Democrats have retreated for unknown reasons and the multitude of far-left groups have resisted all contamination. The only party that seems to want power is Fine Gael. And it had a disastrous election.

An ambitious politician has given up the chance to be Taoiseach. Micheal was raised from the near-dead by the General Election. Cool as a cucumber, he opted for opposition when he still had a chance of the big prize.

Perhaps he is a rare, far-seeing politician. Perhaps he has been thinking long and hard about the consequences of Brexit? Perhaps he is dreading the industrial turmoil brewing in the public service, among the gardai, nurses and others. Perhaps he is worried about the global turndown and Ireland's unconvincingly overblown growth rates. Perhaps he has decided to wait until the conditions are right and then he will pull the rug from under Fine Gael and Independents.

No wonder the soldiers did not turn up for lunch.