Monsoon forecast 2016: Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency, today predicted an “above normal” Southwest monsoon this year. The forecast of above normal monsoon would augur well for the agriculture sector which is under stress due to two consecutive years of poor seasonal rainfall. On its part India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that after two consecutive drought years, the country will receive “above normal” monsoon with a fair distribution of rainfall across major parts of country and it will be a “good year”. Check out what the weathermen from both these institutions said:
Skymet: “There is 35 per cent chance of above normal seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110 per cent of Long Period Average (LPA), while there are 30 per cent chance of normal (between 96 to 104 per cent of LPA),” the institution said in its forecast for this year. The Skymet’s monsoon forecast last year had not come true. The agency had to revise its prediction and lower its monsoon forecast from 102 per cent to 98 per cent.
IMD: India Meteorological Department Director General Laxman Singh Rathore said there are 94 per cent chances of country receiving “normal to above normal” rainfall while there is only 1 per cent probability of “deficient” rainfall. IMD was very successful in predicting the monsoon last year. The monsoon seasonal rainfall will be 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of plus or minus 5 per cent. “Above normal” monsoon is between 104-110 per cent of the LPA and anything beyond 110 per cent of the LPA is considered as “excess”.
Skymet: Central India and West Coast are expected to receive a good amount of rainfall while Tamil Nadu, Northeast India and South Interior Karnataka may witness less rainfall, it said.
IMD: “Currently, the intensity of drought is high in Bundelkhand and Marathwada region. Usually, when the monsoon is good, the monsoon trough is active. The systems and depressions that get created occur over Gujarat. Monsoon is likely to be good in the Western coast and the trough zone, which includes Central India and these (drought) affected areas,” Rathore said. Rathore also cautioned of “extremely heavy rainfall” in some areas.
Skymet: In June, the Skymet said, there is 50 per cent chance of a normal monsoon. “Normal onset (of monsoon) is expected, resulting in good rainfall over peninsular India,” it said. However, it cautioned that “progress of monsoon might be sluggish over North India”. In July and August, the MeT agency said, there will be 60 per cent chance of normal rainfall. In July, “normal to above normal rainfall (is) expected over most parts of the country. Tamil Nadu and Rayalseema might be at moderate risk,” it said. In August, good rainfall is expected particularly over Central and West India, while in September “normal to above normal rainfall” is expected over most parts of the country.
IMD: “By and large, there will be a fair distribution of monsoon across the country. It will be a good year. During good monsoon conditions there still remain some pockets… which is North-East India, where slightly less than normal monsoon is expected. Also the South-East part of the Peninsula like Tamil Nadu and adjoining Rayalseema districts, may get slightly less than normal rainfall,” Rathore said.
Skymet: “September, too, will witness 50 per cent chance of a normal rainfall…Northern plains may see excess rains.”
IMD: “We are also expecting good month-wise quantitative distribution which may accentuate in the later half or the middle of the monsoon,” Rathore added. IMD scientist D S Pai said the El Nino conditions are “weakening”, a phenomena that not only affected the monsoon last year, but also resulted in warmer winters.
(With Agency Inputs)
