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The working assumption of how ISIS operates in Europe is 'shifting'

Brussels police
Masked Belgian police secure the area around the Palais de Justice courthouse in Brussels, Belgium, March 24, 2016. Reuters/Christian Hartmann

The terror cell behind the Brussels attacks had originally planned to strike France again, but was surprised by the speed of the investigation and therefore attacked Brussels instead, the Belgian federal prosecutor's office announced on Sunday.

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These findings are the latest to show that three weeks after the deadly attacks in Brussels, and five months after the attacks on Paris, investigators are still scrambling to figure out how the terrorist cells in Europe are structured.

Early on, investigators thought that ISIS had developed an overarching network of coordinators throughout Europe that could supply foreign fighters with weapons and take care of the logistics behind the preparation of an attack.

But, in a new report by the New York Times, Matthew Henman, the head of IHS Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Center in London, said the assumption of how European cells are structured has been evolving following the Brussels attacks.

"Mr. Henman, reflecting the views of half a dozen intelligence, counterterrorism and military officials interviewed in Europe last week, said the authorities’ working assumption of how the Islamic State structures its external operations in Europe might be shifting," the Times writes.

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Rather than being part of an overarching network, experts now believe that ISIS cells in Europe are self-contained "with individuals who can perform multiple jobs as needed," and that they rely on local criminal networks and committed extremists.

Self-contained cells pose an added danger as tracking and surveilling them is even harder than with cells that are part of a network.

Eiffel tower, Brussels attacks
Philippe Wojazer / Reuters

The theory that ISIS cells in Europe are fairly independent is not a completely new one. Last month, the Associated Press reported that ISIS had trained at least 400 fighters who are working within semi-autonomous cells to attack Europe "with orders to choose the time, place and method for maximum carnage."

The European Police Office (Europol) director Rob Wainwright has also warned about "international fighters" — Europeans who leave to gather combat experience in a terrorist training camp abroad and then came back to Europe. According to Europol, between 3,000 and 5,000 international fighters have already come back to Europe.

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Abdelhamid Abaaoud, who is thought to have been the leader of the Paris attacks, had also claimed, before being killed in a raid by French police, to have entered Europe with 90 other international fighters who dispersed throughout the continent.

Clint Watts, a senior fellow at the George Washington University Center for Cyber and Homeland Security, also suggested after the attacks on Brussels that an "iceberg theory" was likely to apply to the plot.

"The iceberg theory of terrorist plots suggests we should look for two, three, or possibly four dozen extremist facilitators and supporters between Syria and France. This same network is likely already supporting other attacks in the planning phase," Watts wrote in War on the Rocks after the Paris attacks.

Intelligence and counterterrorism officials assume that ISIS — also known as the Islamic State, ISIL, and Daesh — has networks in two or more countries in Europe in addition to France and Belgium, Britain, Germany, and Italy are thought to be high on the terrorist group's target list, according to the Times

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abrini abdeslam
Mohamed Abrini and Salah Abdeslam are both suspected to have been involved with the Paris attacks and are currently held by Belgian authorities. Europol/Business Insider

“Other Islamic State cells are highly likely to be in existence across Western Europe, preparing and organizing further operations, and awaiting direction from the group’s central leadership to execute,” Henman told the New York Times. 

Overall, investigators are finding that ISIS's operations in Europe are "larger and more layered" than expected, according to the Times. 

Reda Kriket was arrested in Paris on March 24 and accused of planning a huge attack on France. Four men who were in contact with him were later arrested in the Netherlands with enough ammunition to supply a dozen gunmen with multiple magazines. 

Kriket's connection to the Paris and Brussels attack is not clear, though. Neither Salah Abdeslam — one of the main suspects in the Paris attacks who was arrested in Brussels on March 18 — or Mohamed Abrini — who is thought to be the logistician behind the Paris attacks and part of the Brussels plot and was arrested on Friday — could give the authorities much information about him, according to the Times.

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“The cells are kept quite separate,” Claude Moniquet, a former French intelligence officer who now works in Belgium, told the New York Times. 

Read the full New York Times report here.

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