If Milton's 'morning shows the day' holds true in a political battlefield, the first phase of West Bengal elections can give an interesting insight into how the elections are likely to pan out.
In an unprecedented move, the Election Commission has decided to hold the elections in seven phases keeping in mind the law and order situation in the state. In fact, the first phase will be actually held in two phases— 18 constituencies on April 4 and 31 constituencies on April 11.
The first phase is being held in an area predominantly known as Jangalmahal where the state government claims of having done massive developmental work in the past. The TMC, as evident in the 2014 general elections, has developed significant political clout in the area, but this remains an old political powerhouse of CPI(M). Congress too has pockets of dominance in the area, though it continues to be a minor player. The main matter of contention is whether the combined force of the Left and Congress will be able to offset TMC's increased presence. This is also a predominantly tribal belt.
What happened before
In 2011, out of these 18 seats, TMC won eight seats while Congress won two. Eight others were won by the Left Front. The point to be noted is that Congress was in alliance with TMC at the time. So effectively the alliance took 10 out of the 18 seats.
Pressing issues
Jangalmahal is part of the red corridor where the dreaded Naxals used to hold considerable clout. After Operation Lalgarh, which began in 2009, and the death of Maoist leader Kishanji in 2011, the situation in Jangalmahal has settled down considerably. The government has also run a massive outreach programme to reach out to people with schemes like rice at Re 1/kg, development of roads and setting up educational institutions. Didi has repeatedly said 'Jangalmahal hasche' to indicate that the region is now much better off than before.
With developmental projects underway, in some areas there have been some grievances of land being taken for government work. Some of the TMC MLAs have also not struck a chord with the electorate. Mamata Banerjee, in the run-up to the polls, has travelled extensively throughout the area and campaigned hard. She is well aware that these seats may be key in the final analysis. The TMC is in general projected to sweep the southern part of Bengal and the Left-Congress alliance has the upper hand in North Bengal.
Jangalmahal may become the turf for a keenly contested fight and the role of the Election Commission will also be key in ensuring that free and fair elections take place. All set for the battle to start now!
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 "West Bengal elections 2016, West Bengal, Trinamool Congress (TMC), Congress, CPI(M), Jangalmahal, Mamata Banerjee,")
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