INDIANAPOLIS — The NCAA hosted 16 media members from around the country to participate in its annual mock selection. The seminar began Thursday at 2 p.m. and concluded Friday at the same time. The group met for 13 hours over the two days, giving reporters a snapshot into the process.
Below is the bracket the mock selection committee put together, following the guidelines, process and steps the actual committee follows. David Worlock, the NCAA director of media coordination and statistics, led the exercise, and NCAA Tournament Selection Committee members Mark Hollis of Michigan State, chairman Joe Castiglione of Oklahoma, Bruce Rasmussen of Creighton and Peter Roby of Northeastern offered help and guidance.
To create debate, several mid-major teams leading their conferences at the moment didn’t receive automatic bids, and became part of at-large consideration: Monmouth was debated in the MAAC (with Siena winning it), Valparaiso in the Horizon League (Oakland) and Chattanooga in the Southern Conference (Mercer). Also, Columbia was credited with winning the Ivy League, not Yale, the leader at the moment; St. Bonaventure won the Atlantic 10; UConn won the American; and San Diego State won the Mountain West.
Below are some of our takeaways from the mock selection process.
- Seton Hall has work to do. The Pirates’ resume, which includes eight wins over top-100 teams and two top-50 victories over Wichita State and Providence, didn’t impress the committee. Their No. 51 RPI needs a boost. The Pirates were one of the first four teams out. But all is not lost. Seton Hall has six regular-season games left, including dates against quality Big East foes Butler, Providence and Xavier, all of whom were included in the field. Had coach Kevin Willard’s team defeated Butler on Wednesday, it likely would’ve been included, instead of the Bulldogs.
- Teams on the bubble should be just as worried about losing bad games as stockpiling quality wins. When discussing these teams, just as much was made of their bad losses (such as defeats to teams with a sub-150 RPI) as their high-caliber wins. Monmouth, for instance, received the final at-large bid, beating out LSU. But several members of the mock committee had a difficult time getting past the Hawks’ losses to Army, Canisius and Manhattan. Their wins over USC, UCLA, Georgetown and Notre Dame weren’t discussed nearly as much. Advice to Monmouth: Don’t lose to anyone in the MAAC other than Iona or Siena if you want to get in without winning the postseason tournament.
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The bubble The Big 12 is going to produce the No. 1 overall seed. Villanova may be ranked No. 1 by the Associated Press, but the Big East wasn’t looked at too favorably by the mock committee, receiving just four bids, including Butler, which was selected to play in the First Four. Oklahoma got the nod for now, but Kansas remains in the mix, as the No. 3 overall seed and third No. 1. The two meet again on Saturday. The winner may have the inside track to the coveted top spot. Of the top 16 seeds, five came from the Big 12.
- The most debate, predictably, revolved around the final bubble teams, pitting mid-majors against power-conference teams. Valparaiso, the best defensive team in the country according to KenPom.com, was left out. So were Chattanooga and William & Mary, who also were considered. But there was a strong sentiment to include Valparaiso over the likes of Butler, Michigan, Wisconsin and Temple. Losing to good teams only goes so far. We’re talking about you, Michigan, which has only two top-100 wins. Time to pile up some victories.
- Perhaps the media is tired of Ben Simmons, but LSU was not given the benefit of the doubt, despite injuries to key players Craig Victor and Keith Hornsby early in the season and recent victories over Kentucky and Vanderbilt. The Tigers, with an RPI of 76, better finish strong, because right now, they don’t have an NCAA Tournament resume despite all that talent. Beating Texas A&M on Saturday would be a nice place to start.
