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Aggressive Russia Makes Sweden Rethink Military, NATO

Swedish Rangers
Swedish Rangers

Gotland is Sweden's largest island, home to some 57,000 people and a popular tourist destination during the short Swedish summers for its many beaches and hiking trails. During the Cold War, the island also served as a key military base in Sweden's defense against the Soviet threat, which loomed just 80 miles away to the east along the Latvian coast.

Today, more than 27 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, soldiers are returning to Gotland.

Russia's expansionist rhetoric and increasing number of military maneuvers has prompted Sweden to raise defense spending by 10.2 billion kronor ($1.18 billion) for the period 2016- 2020. And a part of the defense build-up will be the reinstallation of soldiers on Gotland.

Finland, which itself has grown wary of Moscow since the crisis in Ukraine, constitutes a buffer zone between Sweden and Russia to the north. But the Baltic Sea is an open crossway to Sweden, which makes the island crucial in any eventual threat coming from the East. The new Gotland battle group will initially consist of 300 men, a far cry from the 20,000 soldiers who were placed there during the height of the Cold War, but it is all part of "showcasing a heightened threshold," Swedish Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist told Stockholm daily Dagens Nyheter.

In its 2015 annual report, NATO states that Russia has conducted at least 18 large-scale snap exercises over the last three years, some of which have involved more than 100,000 troops — levels unseen since the height of the Cold War.

"What we can see is that there are more exercises, more military activities in the Baltic Sea," Hultqvist says. "We can also see more proactive activities, flying close to our aircraft."

The 2015 NATO report claims that one of these exercises was a mock nuclear strike against Sweden during war games less than three years ago.

The Russian threat has also reignited the discussion over Swedish membership in NATO. Opinion polls conducted last year showed, that nearly almost half of all Swedes were in favor or joining NATO, a sharp increase since 2012 when fewer than one in five supported the idea.

Also writing in Dagens Nyheter, Jean-Pierre Olov Schori, a Swedish diplomat and former International Secretary in the Swedish Social Democratic Party, notes that NATO membership would risk changing the country's nuclear policy. "Sweden has pursued a consistent anti-nuclear policy since 1960," he said. "This policy, which has given Sweden massive support and credibility for many years in the UN, would not possible if Sweden becomes a member of NATO."

Indeed, despite the skittishness that comes with a newly emboldened Moscow, Sweden is a country that has not fought a war since 1814, and which prides itself on a tradition of neutrality and non-alliance. Major changes, like NATO membership, will not come lightly. Michael Byden, Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces, emphasizes the need to better analyze and understand the situation as the most pressing necessity.

"Did we understand, before it happened, the annexation of Crimea?," Byden wondered in a recent BBC interview. "Did we understand that they were very close to starting something in Eastern Ukraine? This is one of the great challenges right now: what are they up to and why do they do it?"

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FOCUS: Israel-Palestine War

Another Ceasefire Rejected? Why Gaza War Is Good For Netanyahu — And Hamas

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leaders both have deeply cynical reasons to prolong hostilities. Meanwhile, it's in the self-interest of both the U.S. and Arab regimes to try all avenues to broker a ceasefire to ease the suffering of those caught in the crossfire.

Photo of people walking by destroyed building in Rafah, Gaza

Scenes of destruction in Rafah, Gaza

Pierre Haski

-Analysis-

PARIS — How does one halt a war that has been going on for nearly seven months, with ripples felt across much of the world? Once again, rumors of an imminent ceasefire are circulating in the Middle East, where the quiet dance of negotiators serves as a diplomatic barometer.

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At the same time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared on Tuesday his intention to go through with the Israeli offensive on the Gaza city of Rafah, home to more than one million people, "with or without a deal" to free hostages. This statement by the Israeli leader is two-pronged: It can be seen as a proof of his inflexible stance, meant to better prepare for an imminent agreement — or it could seek to escalate the situation.

Last week, Qatar's Minister of Foreign Affairs, one of the behind-the-scenes negotiators between Israel and Hamas, commented that every time a deal seemed within reach, both parties duly proceeded to sabotage it.

Indeed, both the Israeli government and Hamas leaders seem to have an interest in prolonging hostilities.

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