Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy
WINX, the nation’s best racehorse and the sport’s biggest drawcard, is set to extend her winning sequence in the Group 2 $250,000 Apollo Stakes (1400m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
Chris Waller’s super mare has won her past five starts, three at Group 1 level, including the rare Epsom Handicap-Cox Plate Mile last spring.
HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS
Bookies are taking no risks with Winx who is at $1.50 in TAB Fixed Odds betting for her comeback race.
LISTEN TO THE SUPERRACING PODCAST PREVIEW FOR RANDWICK
On a day where most races are wide open, The Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form guru Ron Dufficy agree on one thing — the Apollo Stakes is Winx’s race to lose.
ROYAL RANDWICK
R3: LIGHT FINGERS STAKES (1200m)
Thomas: I’m leaning to Kangarilla Joy on the score of race fitness. She has won three of her four starts and her two wins this preparation have her primed for Saturday. Ghisoni and Pearls from the Godolphin stable are big dangers and Stay With Me is a Group 1 winner well placed at level weights.
Dufficy: A very interesting race but I like Ghisoni. I know she is still learning and there is not much form out of her two wins but I was taken by her recent trial and she looks a filly oozing quality. Stay With Me is the obvious danger and she has also trialled very well. I concede Kangarilla Joy is trying to catch them on the hop here, she is third-up, in form and very likeable. But I just feel Ghisoni and Stay With Me are pretty special fillies with a slight preference to Ghisoni.
TAB market movers: Stay With Me $6-$4.20 ($640 @ $5, $543 @ $4.60), Ghisoni $3.80-$3.50 ($5,000 @ $3.80, $1,000 @ $3.50)
R5: SOUTHERN CROSS STAKES (1200m)
Thomas: I feel it is a race in two between Generalife and Rich Enuff. I have Generalife just on top as he has had two trials going into this race, he goes well fresh and will appreciate the firmer track. Rich Enuff is outstanding at his best but has only had one barrier trial leading into this race. Big Money has been placed in his two runs back from a spell.
Dufficy: I agree but I think we will learn more in the enclosure before the race but I have Rich Enuff from Generalife. Rich Enuff has only had one trial but he is a high profile horse with a future at stud and the owners are trusting Team Snowden to get it right. I know he only had a soft trial and it is understandable some have reservations as he is a big, strong four-year-old “colt” but if there is any market confidence about him on track then I’m happy to go with him. Generalife is the big danger as his two trials have been good. Big Money is third-up on a dry track and is better off at the weights in this race. If Rich Enuff can find his best form he would win this easily.
TAB market movers: Generalife $3.20-$3, Rich Enuff $4.80-$4-$3.60 ($1,000 @ $4.40)
R6: GIFTS.COM.AU HANDICAP (1600m)
Thomas: Muraqaba is a horse on the rise. His Australia Day comeback run was excellent where he ran up to win before a lack of race conditioning told when second to Lunar Rise. Muraqaba will improve off that run and I like him to beat Moral Victory who has raced consistently through an extended summer campaign. Testashadow is also holding his form and Alegria is the other main contender.
Dufficy: I’m with the Victorian raider Duibio here. He is a promising horse and presents at the top of his game fourth-up from a spell. He won up the straight at Flemington then was anchored under his big weight of 59.5kg when second at that track last start. Duibio is a horse capable of going to a better level than his rivals but he needs Hugh Bowman’s help to get him to relax. The danger is Muraqaba after his very good first-up effort. Moral Victory is at good odds and will be very competitive.
TAB market movers: Moral Victory $13-$9 ($500 @ $13), Duibio $5-$3.80 ($1,000 @ $5, $630 @ $4.80, $500 @ $4.40, $700 @ $4)
R7: APOLLO STAKES (1400m)
Thomas: Winx is a potential superstar. She was untouchable in the spring and after a couple of easy trials, is set to make a winning return to racing. She has sprinted well fresh previously and just needs even luck in running and her stunning finishing speed will sweep her to victory. Solicit was game chasing Our Boy Malachi in the Expressway Stakes and will give Winx something to chase. Magic Hurricane is over the odds and Centre Pivot is fit and racing well, albeit against mush easier opposition.
Dufficy: Winx has only had two short trials leading into this race but that was offset by a pretty searching gallop between races last Saturday. I can just see her mapping to be in touch with him them early as most of the stayers in the race will settle behind her. Hugh Bowman will ride her like a good thing and she will pounce on the leaders in the straight. I don’t want to take the $1.55 about her but because she is a high profile mare Chris Waller will have her pretty close to the mark and she should win. Leebaz is trained right up to run well after two hard trials and he will get on-pace favours. Magic Hurricane won over this track and distance first-up last preparation and like you I can’t believe they are betting such big odds about him. Dibayani has also trialled well but it is impossible to tip against Winx.
TAB market movers: Winx $1.55 unchanged ($2,300 @ $1.55, $1,000 @ $1.55, $2,050 @ $1.50, $1,000 @ $1.50 MULTIPLE TIMES)
R8: TRISCAY STAKES (1200m)
Thomas: Private Secretary — she is my best bet. She had little luck first-up in the Razor Sharp and then ran a blinder at the Magic Millions meeting on the Gold Coast when second to I Am Zelady. She loves Randwick, excels at 1200m and the track conditions are in her favour. Private Secretary has a powerful finishing burst and is well weighted on the limit. Peeping is all class but she has to concede 4-5kg to her rivals. Sultry Feeling and Slightly Sweet are capable of sprinting well fresh.
Dufficy: So many good fresh mares in this race but I’m a huge Private Secretary fan. She is a lovely mare who was trapped on the worst part of the track on the Gold Coast. There was a lot of merit in her second placing. She will be very hard to hold out. Peeping has a lot of weight but there is no denying her quality, Her trial was very good but I am concerned about her wide barrier draw. Sultry Feeling is very good fresh and will be getting home strongly.
TAB market movers: Peeping $4.60-$4.20, Private Secretary $4-$3.20 ($1,000 @ $4, $1,300 @ $3.80, $2,000 @ $3.80, $1,317 @ $3.40)
R9: THE NEXT GALAXY HCP (1200m)
Thomas: Tough race but I think Le Cordon Bleu gets his chance here. He is racing well and has been freshened since a very good effort on the Gold Coast last start. From his inside draw, he may not get as far back as he has been in recent starts and will prove hard to hold out. Meursault gets the dry tack he needs and will be in the finish. Supreme Effort is awkwardly drawn but only needs even luck to be competitive and I have a big watch on comeback galloper My Favourite.
Dufficy: I’m going to have a throw at the stumps with My Favourite. He hasn’t been let go in his three Australian trials and looks ready to go. I want to see him first in the yard before I get too confident but Clarry Conners has done a great job to get him back to the races. Supreme Effort has trialled nicely since his very good second-up effort and I’m also wary of Metallic Crown. I like the fact Chris Waller has given Metallic Crown two very fast trials. Le Cordon Bleu is also quite likeable here.
TAB market movers: War Jet $6-$5 ($500 e/w @ $6/$2.25, $500 @ $5.50), Meursault $7.50-$6, Metallic Crown $15-$10
CAULFIELD
R7: C.F. ORR STAKES (1400m)
Thomas: What a race — you could have 10 picks and still miss the winner. In a very open race I do like Bow Creek each way. He showed ability last spring and this horse has a lot of quality about him. If he gets any sort of luck from the turn, he will be finishing hard and $10 is the right odds. Entirely Platinum is not the worst in this race. He is an on-pace runner and he did lead until the last bound in the Memsie Stakes over this trip last spring. Boban has trialled very well in Sydney and he was first-up when he won the Memsie.
Dufficy: This is a very good race but I’m with you, I rate Bow Creek the value bet of the day. I have loved his two trials and I’m convinced he should have beaten Turn Me Loose first-up last preparation. I’m happy to be on him at the price. Turn Me Loose might be better than a good horse, he could be special. His wins in Melbourne last spring were outstanding. Fenway is another good long shot and has a beautiful draw and they have found Damien Oliver. I’m also sure Boban will race well.
TAB market movers: Lucky Hussler $4.60-$4.20 ($400 @ $4.60), Turn Me Loose $6-$4.80 ($600 @ $5, $1,000 @ $4.80, $700 @ $4.80), Bow Creek $12-$10 ($200 @ $12)
DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS
RANDWICK
BEST BETS
Race 3, No. 7 GHISONI
Race 8, No. 4 PRIVATE SECRETARY
CAULFIELD
VALUE BET
Race 7, No. 13 BOW CREEK
TAB MARKET MOVERS
RANDWICK
Race 1: Telperion $4-$3.60-$2.80 ($300 @ $4, $500 @ $3.80, $2,000 @ $3.60, $720 @ $3.60), Spright $8.50-$4.60 ($200 @ $8.50, $580 @ $7)
Race 2: Magical Stance $7-$6 ($600 @ $7), Another Cocktail $6-$4.20 ($400 @ $6, $500 @ $5, $970 @ $4.60, $700 @ $4.60, $1,000 @ $4.20), Lord Disick $6-$5.50
CAULFIELD
Race 1: Abbasso $7-$6-$4.60 ($300 @ $7, $700 @ $6, $600 @ $5)
Race 2: Risque $2.80-$2.70-$2.80 ($2,000 @ $2.80, $2,000 @ $2.70), Mossin Around $3.50-$3.20 ($1,800 @ $3.50)
Race 3: Concealer $7.50-$8.50 ($500 @ $8.50), Calliope $2.80-$2.90 ($2,000 @ $2.80, $1,000 @ $2.90), Samara Dancer $17-$8 ($230 @ $15, $350 @ $13), Dream First $15-$9 ($350 @ $13, $200 @ $13)
Race 4: Flying Artie $7.50-$5.50-$4.20 ($2,000 @ $4.40 TWICE), Weatherly $5.50-$6-$4.80-$4.40 ($1,000 e/w @ $6/$2.25). Deductions: Defcon 16c Win 14c Place
Race 5: Politeness $4.20-$3.80 ($1,200 @ $4.20), Husson Eagle $12-$11, Heatherly $3.80-$3.60 ($500 @ $3.80, $500 @ $3.60), The Monstar $14-$12-$13 ($460 @ $14, $200 @ $12)
Race 6: Mahuta $3.40-$3.30-$3 ($500 @ $3.40, $2,000 @ $3.20, $1,000 @ $3.20 TWICE), Holler $3.60-$3 ($3,000 @ $3.60), Snoopy $11-$9.50-$10 ($650 @ $11)
Race 8: Amorino $10-$8.50 ($300 @ $10)
Race 9: Wawail $4.80 unchanged ($3,000 @ $4.80), Shakespearean Lass $10-$9, Miss Steele $21-$12, Choose $12-$11 ($500 @ $12), Azkadellia $2.30-$2.60
MAJOR MULTIS
$2,000 @ $9.30 on Stay With Me (Randwick r3) / Winx (Apollo Stakes)
$2,000 @ $8.53 on Stay With Me (Randwick r3) / Winx (Apollo Stakes)