Cong-CPM alliance may only pinch TMC

Kolkata: The recent clamour for a pre-poll understanding between CPM and Congress is not going to bring anti-Trinamool forces to power in Bengal. Trinamool is way ahead by sheer arithmetic though polls are all about chemistry. Political parties had a test of it in Bihar, where Lalu Prasad began the race as a liability for the Mahagathbandhan but finished with the largest number of seats.
Things have changed a lot since the 2014 Lok Sabha polls in Bengal. It looks difficult for the state BJP to hold on to the 17% vote share it had got riding the Modi wave. Trinamool eyes a portion of the BJP vote share in the 2016 assembly polls.
But what about the Left vote share that swung to the BJP in 2014? The Left can reclaim that share only if it emerges as a viable alternative. But the biggest challenge for the Left is to regain the booth-level presence it once had. The urge to checkmate Trinamool at the booth level has brought the state CPM and Congress closer to each other, with the Siliguri municipal poll acting as an eye opener for leaders of both parties.
A peek at the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, where Left Front, Congress, Trinamool and BJP fought independently was the worst election for Left and Congress. Both parties suffered a near rout in south Bengal though the Left ended up losing by margins of less than 10,000 votes in as many 40 assembly seats. Lok Sabha assembly segments such as Krishnanagar, Diamond Harbour, Bankura and Birbhum show a relatively weak Trinamool scraping through due to a split opposition.
But a Left-plus-Congress scenario appears to be runaway winner in Joynagar, Kultali, Patharpratima and Magrahat East seats.
Assembly segments under Diamond Harbour Lok Sabha constituency are tension points for the ruling party if the Lok Sabha poll result is anything to go by. Trinamool's Abhishek Banerjee's leads fall way below the 10,000 vote mark in five assembly constituencies, Metiabruz being the worst.
Congress is a threat to Trinamool in Satgachia assembly seat. And in Bankura, a similar script unfolds in Raghunathpur (SC), Chatna and Taldangra assembly seats. Rampurhat, Hansan, Nalhati and Murarai assembly constituencies in Birbhum may not be safe for Trinamool.
But then there is the poll arithmetic. In the last two years, the Mamata Banerjee government has done some good work and the party followed it up by expanding its network and poaching a host of Opposition leaders, thereby managing to get a majority in many municipalities and panchayats. This apart, many high profile leaders - especially former Forward Bloc MLA Udayan Guha from Dinhata, former Congress MLA Ajoy De, former Congress MLA and Katwa Municipality chairperson Rabindra Chatterjee - may help to improve Trinamool's position in Shantipur, Ranaghat (SC) and Katwa assembly seats, where Congress has a steady following, polling over 20,000 votes in 2014. The defection of Congress MLAs to Trinamool invariably follows this hidden script. It isn't without reason that Trinamool has been wooing Congress legislators like Joseph Munda, Keshab Roy, Nepal Mahato and Shankar Malakar. Some of them are likely to join Trinamool before the 2016 assembly elections.
What's more, the ranks of both CPM and Congress are at a loss ahead of the polls. Congress veteran and Alipurduar MLA D P Ray said in the assembly on Tuesday that Congress workers will ensure Trinamool wins in his constituency even if there is an alliance between Congress and Left.
Yet, Trinamool is the main challenge for Trinamool itself. The continuing faction feuds in a host of assembly seats have prompted Mamata Banerjee to sound a word of caution to the ranks at a recent meeting in South 24-Parganas. Trojan horses such as Kaiser Ahmed are under the party scanner.
The Opposition, on the other hand, hopes to cash in on anti-incumbency to take on the might of Trinamool, once people get a chance to vote. The people's alliance model worked wonders in Siliguri, but failed miserably in Salt Lake. An alliance could be the minimum condition for putting up a fight, but not enough to make the kill.