Sushma Swaraj, Nitin Gadkari and others next in queue, with promises to make

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already launched the campaign, having addressed a rally in Kokrajhar on January 19, and is scheduled to visit Friday, when he will inaugurate the Games in Guwahati after attending three events in upper Assam, including an address to party workers.

At his meeting with the council of ministers last week, Modi reportedly expressed unhappiness with the party and government machinery for not being able to create a “goodwill factor” ahead of the polls. The party, which has declared “Assam Nirman” as its main theme, will unveil a vision document being prepared with the guidance of Rajan Sethi, a public policy graduate from Harvard.

The party having announced Sonowal as its CM candidate, the fight is now between him and Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, “rather than what the Congress expected – a fight between Gogoi and the PM”, said a party leader. “The announcement has given the party time to mobilise the cadre. Those who have issues with Sonowal’s leadership can be convinced before the campaign picks up.”

The BJP holds half the 14 Lok Sabha seats and has party has set itself a target of 84 assembly seats, a two-thirds out of 126. It is trying to build on the support won in 2014 by cobbling a coalition of small groups of various ethnic communities. The BJP has already announced its alliance with the Bodoland People’s Front and is negotiating with various tribal groups, including those of tea garden employees, the BJP leader said.

Tea garden employees, traditionally Congress supporters but seen as upset with the state government, are crucial. “They have influence in at least 30 seats, while the Bodos have their say in 15 seats,” said the leader. In 2011, the BPF won 12 seats and was the third largest party in the assembly.

The Centre is expected to announce some schemes for the state targeting these populations. A pending assurance is revision of the guidelines for Scheduled Tribe status. Six communities – Koch-Rajbongshis, Tai Ahoms, Morans, Sutiyas, Motoks and the Sah Jonogosti (tea tribes) – have been demanding ST status and the BJP had promised the Centre would take a decision soon. “The Tai Ahom community is likely to get ST status soon,” said a BJP leader.

However, government sources said, the decision is unlikely to get cleared before the elections. According to Census 2001, STs form 12½% of Assam’s population; 15 assembly seats are reserved for them.