Why Arunachal Pradesh matters to India

On Monday the Supreme Court will hear the petition of the Congress party challenging the Centre’s imposition of President’s rule in Arunachal Pradesh, one of the five Congress-ruled states in Northeast (NE) India that have been on the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) radar since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Both the assembly and Lok Sabha elections were held simultaneously, although there was a lot of cross-voting. Result:
voters gave a clear majority to the Congress in the assembly polls (42 out of 60 seats, which later increased to 47) but the BJP’s vote share in the Lok Sabha segments was significantly higher at 47.8% against Congress’ 43.7%.

On the night of Republic Day, the state assembly was once again up for grabs courtesy of the President’s approval of a Cabinet recommendation to impose Central rule in Arunachal and keep the legislative assembly in suspended animation. The Cabinet reckoned this had to be done because of a “constitutional breakdown” in the state, as reported by the state’s governor Jyoti Prasad Rajkhowa.

For the Congress, the way ahead is simple:

parade 31 MLAs as it claims it still has, provided of course the apex court offers it that option on Monday. That may not be easy, considering that 21 Congress MLAs have ‘rebelled’; and five-time MLA Kalikho Pul, the leader of the pack, has a shot at becoming chief minister with the support of the 11 BJP MLAs. The stage may indeed be set for a repeat of 2003 when the BJP briefly ruled Arunachal Pradesh with the help of Congress defectors.

Strategic Importance Arunachal Pradesh may be located in India’s easternmost part, too far flung from the nation’s collective conscience to figure in drawing room conversations in Lutyens’ Delhi or in the politically hyperactive cow belt of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. But as far as the BJP and Congress are concerned, aside from the four big states that go to polls in a couple of months (West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Kerala), Arunachal perhaps today is of the most strategic importance.

For starters, as neighbouring Assam, the largest NE state in terms of population, is scheduled to go for polls in April, the BJP’s bid to net Arunachal is loaded with political implication. Though it will clearly be a backdoor entry, if BJP succeeds in conquering Itanagar, the message emanating from the Capital will be clearcut: that the saffron part has dislodged one “corrupt” government in the region, and Assam is next in line.

“The governor (Rajkhowa) was appointed with the sole purpose of destabilising and dislodging my government. He converted Raj Bhawan into the state BJP’s political headquarters,” alleges Nabam Tuki, chief minister of Arunachal till President’s rule was imposed. Commenting on the governor’s report where it was alleged that a Mithun (a bovine) was slaughtered outside the Raj Bhawan to intimidate the governor, Tuki said: “Yes, there was Mithun slaughter, but it was done at the residence of an ex-BJP MLA. Lies were spread through social media.

Also, where is the question of threatening the governor? No one can even throw a stone at the Raj Bhawan which is guarded by Central forces,” Tuki adds, dismissing the law and order problems as cited in the governor’s report. He also denies his linkage to underground Naga group, the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K), as underlined in the governor’s report, leaked to a section of the media though the apex court wanted the report in a sealed envelope.

BJP’s national spokesman Sudhanshu Trivedi counters that Arunachal witnessed a constitutional breakdown, forcing the Centre to take the route of President’s rule. “As many as 34 MLAs (out of 60) were in favour of dislodging the government. The Congress did not have the numbers and that’s why it could not convene the assembly session,” he says. As many as 11 BJP MLAs and two independents lent support to the 21 rebel Congress MLAs, making it a total of 34 MLAs who opposed the Tuki government.

Amid the political tug of war, rebellion and potential for horse-trading, New Delhi can’t ignore one harsh reality: Arunachal Pradesh borders three of India’s neighbours — Bhutan, China and Myanmar, stretching up to 1,630 km. And this NE state is more important than many others because China has been persistently staking claim over its entire 83,743 sq km territory even after 53 years of India-China war when the Chinese soldiers briefly occupied parts of its land.

Residents in Walong, located in extreme east of India, where brave soldiers of the Kumaon Battalion fought in 1962, can’t erase the memories of that war. “The 1962 war still haunts us. But we are cent percent Indians and we don’t want to be secondclass citizens of China,” Chaitom, an elder in Mechong village of Changwinti circle said, when this correspondent visited the area in November 2014.

Also, Arunachal is the only pre-Sikkim Northeast state that has not witnessed home-grown insurgency (Sikkim was merged into India in 1975), although Naga underground outfits, particularly the NSCN-K have been active in Tirap, Changlang and Longding districts, the area adjoining Nagaland. Most Arunachali youth were never attracted to insurgency despite the Northeast region being a hotbed of militancy.

Thus, the risk of the youth of Arunachal, who are till date patriots to the core, going astray against a backdrop of political turbulence is a risk that can never be underplayed. And it’s not rocket science to understand that China, which claims Arunachal as its own, will find opportunity in the insecurity.