Lessons BJP must learn in 2016: Think Ramayana, not Ram Temple!

For a party which professes to lay great store by ancient Indian wisdom, BJP needs to read the Ramayana and Mahabharata again. Apart from the ‘moral’ lessons these epics provide, they are also masterpieces of political strategy and since BJP is a political party, it must take those parts of the stories to heart rather than get carried away by emotions of the moment. So let us examine some of BJP’s big domestic failures in 2015 to see what the great epics would tell it to do differently in 2016.

Allies and Opponents

The actions of Rama and Krishna/Yudhishthira in Ramayana and Mahabharata underlined the importance of splitting the opposition and gathering allies, the exact opposite of what BJP has been doing at the national level for the past year and a half. It has bullied its existing allies like Shiv Sena and Akali Dal at every opportunity and its perceived arrogance has ensured that the opposition managed to put up a façade of unity even in tough places like Bihar. It needs to be underlined that the heroes of the epics thought this aspect to be important enough to permit some bending of their hugely advertised ethical standards. Rama, for instance, ensured Sugriva’s victory over Bali with an unsportsmanlike attack, and since a victor commits no sins, ample post-facto justification has been provided for this act. Equally, Rama welcomed defector Vibhishana with open arms instead of lecturing him about the importance of brotherly loyalty, otherwise a much showcased feature of the epic. The earthy logic of ‘expediency’ triumphs, and rightly so, over lofty considerations of ethics or morality in matters of practical politics.

Among the opposition, Congress has long historical connections to call upon and so it is putting up a fight beyond its Lok Sabha numbers. BJP needs its cooperation in 2016 because it has important bills, including GST, to push through. Much as BJP toughies want a fight on every issue, every day, the smart thing to do is follow the epics. Yudhishthira faced a hundred provocations—from the poisoning of young Bheema as a child to the burning of the lac palace to the fixed dice game to exile—Bheema was perpetually straining at the leash. But no, Yudhishthira held on patiently till the odds were a little more even after 13 years of exile, with Arjuna securing Shiva’s and Indra’s divine weapons. Even so, it was only after getting Drupada, Virata and Krishna’s formal backing that Yudhishthira went in for a martial confrontation. The lesson here is that this is the time for BJP to stoop patiently in the hope of conquering later. BJP should accommodate Congress in minor matters like delaying eviction from palatial Delhi bungalows and provision of security to important leaders. A couple of Cabinet berths in the next reshuffle should calm down Shiv Sena and Akalis.

Media Management 

A year and a half into its term, it appears that BJP’s A team after Modi viz: Sushma Swaraj, Rajnath Singh, Arun Jaitley, Nitin Gadkari is doing fairly well and its B team of Piyush Goel, Suresh Prabhu,  Prakash Jawadekar and Nirmala Sitaraman is doing alright. It is the C and D teams of sundry Maharajs, Sadhvis, Sharmas and Soms that can land BJP in trouble anytime. Yes, for the moment they seem to be gagged, but that is strictly a band-aid. Their conditioning is such that it won’t take too much to trigger their reflexes and you can be sure that one nasty sound byte is always around the corner. 2015 has also shown that the media, especially English TV media, is merciless in exploiting every stumble by any minor BJP functionary. What next?

Early on in his term, Modi had issued a gag order to all his ministers till they got familiar with their jobs and his leadership style. The end result has been an unmitigated disaster. All the ‘BJP talk time’ the channels had was cornered by the C and D teams. BJP veterans and followers must have squirmed on seeing Mahesh Sharma and Som articulate BJP’s stand on crucial issues like Dadri while master wordsmiths like Sushma Swaraj, in PR terms, were twiddling their thumbs. On the flip side, nothing has shown up English TV media’s bias more than the Aamir Khan episode and many observers have pointed out the incongruity in his talking of running away from India while taking money to promote Indian tourism. That some English News channels found ‘intolerance’ in this scenario speaks more of their discomfort in being excluded from the charmed Delhi Lutyens inner circle than any real conviction. The pathetic defence (distance from Delhi studios!) by some ‘National’ TV anchors of poor Malda coverage, compared to the saturation one given to Dadri, could have been laughed off but for the fact that, for all their faults, English TV News channels are watched by many opinion makers and can trigger seriously damaging episodes like ‘Award Wapasi’.

The point to note is that for fighting Meghnad, Ram deployed Laxman and for fighting Bheeshma, Pandavas put forward Arjuna. So when the heavyweight English TV channels get hold of the next ‘burning’ issue, BJP needs to get it’s A or B team in the studio in a flash.

Elections and Hindutva

Bihar elections should have taught BJP some important lessons. One, projecting Modi in state elections may have worked in states like Maharashtra but that strategy is well past its sell-by date. In Maharashtra, there was some local sympathy after the death of Gopinath Munde which helped while the afterglow of Lok Sabha elections lasted. In the BJP-ruled states, there was the reasonably positive local governance factor which Modi’s appeal could piggy back upon. There were no such factors in Delhi and in Bihar.

Second, not projecting a credible local face hurt BJP severely. Voters in Delhi and Bihar knew very well that Modi could not be held accountable for local delivery of good governance and dumped BJP. Voters in Assam and all the states going to polls in 2016 know this too and BJP’s best bet would be to start projecting potential CM candidates early.

Third, in terms of strategy alone, ‘Hindutva’ seems to be a very poor card to play during election times. It unites large sections of media and the entire opposition against BJP, exactly what a Rama or Yudhishthira would have avoided. At the tactical level too, Hindutva makes no electoral sense. The numbers just do not add up and in electoral strategy, that must be the final decision marker. In the LS elections, Modi’s ‘development’ agenda seems to have added around 12 percentage points to the votes tally over BJP/ NDA’s  loyal vote in the upper twenties. In Delhi and Bihar that vote deserted NDA/ BJP the moment dubious Hindutva of ‘crackers in Pakistan’ variety was injected into the discourse. With no compensating additional votes whatsoever.

The lesson could not be clearer. As the voices from the sangh flock and get louder, asking for Ram Temple to be built quickly, BJP must shout out its message to all of them loud and clear: concentrate on Ramayana in 2016 please, leave the Ram temple for another day.