The Yankees finished second in the majors in runs in the way Twice a Prince came in second in the 1973 Belmont – 31 lengths behind Secretariat.
The Blue Jays scored 891 runs in 2015, the Yankees 764. The 127-run gap was the largest between the leaders since the 1953 Dodgers outscored the Yankees by 154 runs. Consider the 2015 Yankees managed 119 runs in May (29 games). So they could have repeated that entire month and still finished second to the Blue Jays.
Toronto lost no one significant from that devastating lineup and can envision better production with full years from Troy Tulowitzki, Ben Revere and Devon Travis. That lineup filled Blue Jays management with two strong impulses: 1) It was so dominant, you don’t want to waste it by neglecting the rotation; 2) It was so dominant, greatness was not necessary in the rotation.
“With our offense, we feel consistent starting pitching was going to be key,” Blue Jays interim general manager Tony LaCava said by phone.
But this was the puzzle: The Blue Jays did not want to trade from the offense to upgrade the rotation. They did not want to give up prospects or draft picks because they had so depleted their farm last year to secure their first playoff berth since 1993, including dealing two 2016 rotation options: Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd. They knew internally they would never go to the financial stratosphere necessary to retain David Price, and they anticipated Mark Buehrle might retire and would not be back.
“We felt that if we did not act quickly, we could end up with a lot of guys who were not even replacement-level starters and, for us, that would have been a catastrophe,” LaCava said.
They have acted quickly, picking up R.A. Dickey’s $13 million 2016 option, dealing a good setup man (Liam Hendriks) to Oakland for Jesse Chavez, and investing $62 million in Marco Estrada and J.A. Happ.
Dickey was about innings certitude (only James Shields has started more games the past five years). Chavez is a swingman whom Toronto hopes to use for about 15 starts.
Estrada and Happ offer intrigue. They can go bust: Neither has sustained excellence in their careers. They could be around league average and carried by the elite offense. But what intrigues is what both did late in the year to suggest maybe their best is yet to come – in which case Toronto would be the AL team to beat.
The Blue Jays believe Marcus Stroman could top a rotation. Toronto plans to ask Aaron Sanchez to come to spring training ready to be stretched out as a starter, though there’s growing belief his future is in the bullpen. The Blue Jays toyed with doing the same with Roberto Osuna, but do not think he has the innings built up, plus they feel he is their long-term closer after his 20-save performance in his age-20 season.
But how this rotation goes depends on who Estrada and Happ are.
Estrada used an awesome changeup to have his best season (13-8, 3.13), and then was Toronto’s best postseason starter (2.33 ERA in three outings). But he turns 33 in July and never has thrown more than his 181 innings from 2015. He did not risk free agency in full while attached to the qualifying offer, signing for two years at $26 million.
Happ’s 2 1/2 seasons with Toronto (2012-14) reflect his reputation: very good stuff and mediocre results (19-20, 4.39 ERA). The Blue Jays dealt him to the Mariners, who last July 31 traded him to Pittsburgh. Like so many other pitchers who have fallen under the Pirates’ tutelage, Happ got remarkably better results. The Pirates got his delivery more streamlined north-south, which enabled him to get a higher release point. He threw more fastballs and continued a recent trend of limiting walks.
In 11 Pirates starts, Happ was 7-2 with a 1.85 ERA. Pitching is in such demand, teams will gamble even on glimpses. The A’s just gave $6 million to oft-injured journeyman Rich Hill because he had four good starts for the Red Sox to end the year. The Blue Jays were willing to risk $36 million over three years on Happ. They didn’t want to roll the dice on older starters who had draft pick compensation tied to them, such as Hishashi Iwakuma or John Lackey. And they know recent graduates of the Pirates pitching academy, such as Edinson Volquez and Francisco Liriano, continued to pitch well after their initial success and after signing multi-year free-agent deals.
“These were not the sexiest moves of the offseason,” LaCava said. “We are not going to win the offseason, but that was not the focus. The focus was on adding capable starters with potential upside.”
Dodgers content to let Howie Kendrick walk
Howie Kendrick has hit between .285 and .299 seven times in his career. Only one other second baseman, Jeff Kent, has done that more often (eight times) in a season of at least 250 plate appearances.
Kendrick hit .295 for the Dodgers last year and has a .293 career average, and the steadiness should continue for the next few years. The Dodgers loved Kendrick’s consistency on and off the field, and there were points during the season when they imagined signing him long-term.
But Kiké Hernandez proved himself a good major league hitter and the Dodgers obtained Jose Peraza from the Braves. Both bat right-handed, like Kendrick, and will cost about the major league minimum. Though they seem to have no qualms about spending, the Dodgers decided they want to get younger where they can and re-direct money elsewhere, notably to their rotation. So they put the qualifying offer on Kendrick, which he rejected, and the Dodgers will accept a draft pick when he signs elsewhere rather than sign Kendrick for the three- or four-year deal it will likely take to retain him.
Instead, the Dodgers are looking for a lefty-swinging option at second as a counterbalance to Hernandez/Peraza. They like Daniel Murphy, but again do not want to get involved in the three or more likely four years it would take to sign him, plus they would forfeit their first-round pick. The Dodgers are looking at short-term solutions, which is why they are considering a reunion with the No. 1 enemy of Mets fans, Chase Utley, who also has drawn interest from the Mariners, among others.