After a long hiatus, I’m back with more redistricting plans. Gerrymandering is one of the primary reasons Democrats are in such a deep hole in the House of Representatives; I’ve been hooked on Dave’s Redistricting App, drawing up plans to remedy the problem in each state. I was planning on doing a group of Midwestern states (Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa), but Louisiana’s raucous gubernatorial runoff made me take a second look at that state’s congressional map. Hopefully a map along these lines can become a reality under Gov. John Bel Edwards in 2019.
LA-01 (blue)
Obama-McCain: 59-40
Total population: 756,063
Total VAP: 568,028
Race (VAP): 50% Af-Am., 45% white, 2% Hisp., 1% Asian, 1% 0ther, <1% Nat.
Incumbent: None
Predecessor district: None
Based in: Shreveport, Natchitoches, Alexandria, Opelousas, Baton Rouge
Includes: Parts of Shreveport, Natchitoches, Alexandria, Opelousas, Baton Rouge; all of Avoyelles, East Feliciana, West Feliciana, Pointe Coupee, West Baton Rouge, and St. Helena Parishes
Louisiana should have two majority-minority districts, but Republicans packed the state’s black voters into what is currently LA-02. I created a second majority-minority district, stretching from Shreveport to Baton Rouge; compactness matters much less in a state as racially polarized as Louisiana. This district is (barely) black-majority, but with racial polarization, black voters will consistently be able to choose the candidate of their choice.
There’s no incumbent here, although Democratic Rep. Cedric Richmond of the aforementioned LA-02 may move here from New Orleans to ensure he’s safe in the primary (Richmond is black and represents the Baton Rouge portion of my new LA-01; such a move would allow another New Orleans politician, potentially Mayor Mitch Landrieu, who is white, to climb up the ladder.)
If Richmond decides to stay in the New Orleans district, we could see Shreveport mayor Ollie Tyler, state Rep.-elect (and Tyler’s predecessor) Cedric Glover, or East Baton Rouge Parish Mayor-President and 2015 Lt. Gov. candidate Kip Holden win the Democratic nomination in this district. All three of those candidates are black; Ollie Tyler is a woman. In this district, winning the Democratic nomination is tantamount to election. Safe D, no matter what.
LA-02 (green)
Obama-McCain: 33-66
Total population: 757,178
Total VAP: 572,376
Race (VAP): 67% white, 28% Af-Am., 2% Hisp., 1% Asian, 1% other, 1% Nat.
Incumbent: John Fleming (R), Ralph Abraham (R)
Predecessor district: LA-04 and LA-05
Based in: Metro Shreveport, Monroe, Minden
Includes: Essentially all of northern Louisiana aside from the narrow strip covered by LA-01
This district is conservative to its core. Rep. Fleming is almost certain to run for David Vitter’s Senate seat (and he's said as much), meaning that Rep. Abraham would probably be unchallenged for this seat, despite Fleming’s edge in seniority. Safe R no matter what.
LA-03 (dark magenta)
Obama-McCain: 33-66
Total population: 757,745
Total VAP: 563,357
Race (VAP): 73% white, 22% Af-Am., 3% Hisp., 1% other, 1% Asian, <1% Nat.
Incumbent: Charles Boustany (R)
Predecessor district: LA-03
Based in: Lafayette, Lake Charles
Includes: Lafayette, Lake Charles, much of southwest Louisiana
This is quite a conservative district, encompassing much of Acadiana. Like Rep. Fleming, Rep. Boustany is likely to run for the Senate (see the link in the LA-02 description); unlike Rep. Fleming, Rep. Boustany doesn’t get drawn into an incumbent-on-incumbent primary battle, meaning that he’d leave the seat open when he runs for Senate. Scott Angelle lives here; he could snag this seat and put his political career back on track after his narrow loss for the second-place spot in the 2015 gubernatorial jungle primary. He performed well here in 2015; it’s easy to see him turning that into a job in Congress. Safe R.
LA-04 (red)
Obama-McCain: 33-65
Total population: 755,766
Total VAP: 560,898
Race (VAP): 71% white, 22% Af-Am., 4% Hisp., 1% Asian, 1% Nat., 1% other
Incumbent: None
Predecessor district: None
Based in: Houma, New Iberia, outskirts of metro NOLA, part of metro Baton Rouge
Includes: All of Louisiana’s coast south of Lake Pontchartrain, outskirts of metro NOLA, outskirts of metro Baton Rouge
Again, quite conservative. This district has no incumbent, so Rep. Garret Graves (R), who currently represents a chunk of it, could run for it. (Graves’ hideously-gerrymandered district gets dismantled with my map.) Other potential candidates include House Majority Whip Steve Scalise (he gets drawn into a safely blue district), outgoing Lt. Gov. and 4th-place 2015 gubernatorial candidate Jay Dardenne, and incoming Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser, both Republicans. Safe R.
LA-05 (gold)
Obama-McCain: 57-41
Total population: 753,043
Total VAP: 586,361
Race (VAP): 47% white, 40% Af-Am., 8% Hisp., 3% Asian, 1% other, <1% Nat.
Incumbent: Cedric Richmond (D), Steve Scalise (R)
Predecessor district: None
Based in: New Orleans, Jefferson Parish
Includes: New Orleans, most of Jefferson parish, other minority-heavy parts of metro NOLA
My favorite part of this map is that House Majority Whip Steve Scalise, also known as "David Duke without the baggage", gets drawn into this safely Democratic district. Sure, he’d probably move into LA-04 or LA-06, which each contain large chunks of his current turf, but I’d enjoy seeing the man squirm. A NOLA politician, like Mayor Mitch Landrieu or his sister, former Sen. Mary Landrieu, would almost certainly take this seat if Rep. Richmond moves as discussed above. Despite the fact that the Landrieus are white, this seat wouldn’t be forever held by a white Democrat; I doubt a white candidate not named Landrieu could win the Democratic primary here. Sure, the district has a good chunk of white voters, but they’re mostly Republicans, allowing black voters to dominate the Democratic primary. This isn’t a second VRA district, but it’s a second majority-minority district, and there’s a good chance it elects a black Representative. Safe D.
LA-06 (teal)
Obama-McCain: 26-72
Total population: 753,577
Total VAP: 564,337
Race (VAP): 76% white, 17% Af-Am., 5% Hisp., 1% Asian, 1% other, <1% Nat.
Incumbent: None
Predecessor district: None
Based in: The Florida Parishes, northern metro NOLA, metro Baton Rouge
Includes: Most of the Florida Parishes, northern metro NOLA, metro Baton Rouge
Ironically, Louisiana’s Democratic governor-elect lives in the reddest district in the state (JBE lives in Amite, in Tangipahoa Parish.) This district covers the areas along the northern shore of Lake Pontchartrain, as well as a chunk of metro Baton Rouge. Either Graves or Scalise runs here, while the other runs in LA-04; alternately, they could face off against each other—under the jungle primary, Graves could potentially slip past Scalise in a runoff by reminding voters that Scalise is a racist, thereby uniting Democrats and moderate Republicans against him; in a non-jungle primary state, Scalise would be invincible, but in Louisiana, the jungle primary can produce unexpected results. Safe R.
***NOTE***
I was unable to determine which district Rep. Garret Graves would live in under this map; Rep. Graves is a resident of Baton Rouge, which is split between LA-01, LA-04, and LA-06. Louisiana’s five other representatives all live in cities that are wholly within one district.