How can it be possible that Belgium, a small country with a population of 11 million and not exactly renowned as a men's tennis superpower, has reached this year's Davis Cup final?
There are two answers to why David Goffin's Belgian team now finds itself just three rubbers away from the most improbable of victories, with the tie against Great Britain opening on a clay court in Ghent, Belgium, on Friday. The first is luck -- nothing less and nothing more than outrageous good fortune.
But a team cannot progress this deep into the competition on luck alone; some players are required -- even ones lacking in star power. So, the second answer is that Belgium's size (or lack thereof) works to its advantage. Filip Dewulf, a former Roland Garros semifinalist who is one of the most successful Belgian male tennis players of all time, told ESPN the country is helped, rather than hindered, by being so small. With everything on such a limited scale, it's harder for anyone of any talent "to get lost in the system," Dewulf said.
When the draw was made for this year's World Group, it was widely thought that Belgium, after being paired with defending champion Switzerland, wouldn't advance past the first round. But the tie looked very different when both Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka made themselves unavailable, and even then it was tight with Goffin called upon to win a decisive fifth rubber.
In the quarterfinal, Belgium again played depleted opponents with Canada missing both Milos Raonic, a former Wimbledon semifinalist, and Vasek Pospisil, a quarterfinalist at the All England Club this year. And its semifinal opponent, Argentina, was without former US Open champion Juan Martin del Potro, still sidelined with injury.
"We've been very lucky, and people in Belgium are of course surprised that the team is in the final," said Dewulf, who played 42 matches in Davis Cup, including in the 1999 semifinal against France.
"The luckiest moment was for the first-round tie when Federer and Wawrinka didn't show up. It's been a big surprise as for the last few years Belgium has been losing in the first round, then needed to win playoff ties just to stay in the World Group for the following year. But if you're a small country like Belgium, you always need a little bit of luck along the way and that's what has happened this year. And if you are given some luck, you then have to take your chances."
This isn't the first time that Belgium has punched above its weight on the international tennis stage. Justine Henin gathered seven majors and Kim Clijsters scored four, and both women held the world No. 1 ranking in their careers. Belgian men have also run deep at the Grand Slams, with Dewulf making the semifinals of the 1997 French Open and Xavier Malisse reaching the semis of the 2002 Wimbledon Championships. Both men were on the last Belgian Davis Cup team to make the semis, in 1999.
But nothing that came before would be as shocking as Belgium winning this year's Davis Cup, even if it is essentially facing opposition drawn from an even smaller area -- a small town in Stirlingshire, Scotland, called Dunblane, where both Murray brothers learned to play. So Belgium is in the final round for the first time in 111 years, though this is much more of a feat than its "run" in 1904, as only three nations entered the competition that year -- the British Isles, Belgium and France -- and the Belgians had to defeat only the French to play for the title, ultimately losing to the British Isles 5-0 in the final.
Belgium has one player ranked No. 16 in Goffin, and another ranked No. 84 in Steve Darcis, best known for defeating Rafael Nadal in the first round of Wimbledon in 2013, and there are two others lurking just outside the top 100 in Ruben Bemelmans and Kimmer Coppejans. While Belgium lacks players in the absolute elite, it does have decent pros.
"Because we are a small country, if there is a talented tennis player, he will get noticed. People will find him," said Dewulf. "So not many talents get lost in the process."