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ESPN's QBR is the dumbest stat in sports (Tom Brady was fifth, behind Ryan Fitzpatrick!)

In 2011, ESPN tried to create a better way to rate quarterbacks, as the standard system — a ridiculous, indecipherable QB rating that had, for some reason, a maximum score of 158.3 — was deemed illogical. Enter QBR which is so logical that, entering Week 10, Ryan Fitzpatrick was rated ahead of Tom Brady. Mission accomplished, eh ESPN! So, we dug into that startling finding and other absurdities of the dumbest stat in sports (which is saying something).

1. Prior to Thursday’s game, here were the stat lines for the aforementioned quarterbacks:

Screen Shot 2015-11-12 at 2.14.39 PM

Screen Shot 2015-11-12 at 2.15.06 PM

So, Fitzpatrick had fewer wins, completions, completion percentage, yards (by almost 1,000!), touchdowns, Y/A, Y/C, QB rating and more interceptions. But his QBR is 76.7, third in the league, while Brady is slumming it at 73.9, good for fifth. Yeah. I don’t know either.

2. When QBR was unveiled to no fanfare in 2011, it required nearly 2,500 words of explanation. As much as one can sum up 2,500 words in one paragraph, this one seemed to hit at the core of QBR:

What underlies QBR is an understanding of how football works and a lot of detailed situational data. What it yields are results that should reflect that. It illustrates that converting on third-and-long is important to a quarterback. It shows that a pass that is in the air for 40 yards is more reflective of a quarterback than a pass that is in the air for 5 yards and the receiver has 35 yards of run after the catch. These premises should sound reasonable to football fans. They come out of a lot of statistical analysis, but they are also consistent with what coaches and players understand.

That’s totally great. But Ryan Fitzpatrick is ahead of Tom Brady, so it’s really, really not.

(USA TODAY Sports Images)

(USA TODAY Sports Images)

3. Some other facts, according to QBR, through Week 9:

Ryan Fitzpatrick > Aaron Rodgers

Tyrod Taylor >  Ben Roethlisberger

Jay Cutler > Philip Rivers

Brian Hoyer > Russell Wilson

Ryan Mallett > Cam Newton

(USA TODAY Sports Images)

(USA TODAY Sports Images)

Ryan Mallett > Matthew Stafford

Ryan Mallett > Andrew Luck

Ryan Mallett > Joe Flacco

Ryan Mallett > Nick Foles

Ryan Mallett > Sam Bradford

(USA TODAY Sports Images)

(USA TODAY Sports Images)

4. The fourth best game of the year, according to QBR, came from Teddy Bridgewater who went 14/18, 153 yards, with one touchdown in a game against the Detroit Lions.

5. This one’s my favorite: The all-time best game in QBR history was when Charlie Batch (!!!) beat Tampa in early 2010. Here’s Batch’s stat line for that game (oh, I love this so much): 12/17, 186 yards, 10.9 avg, 3 TD, 2 INT, 106.5 rating, 99.9 QBR, all in a game in which the Steelers won 38-13! Two interceptions! A blowout! A QB rating that was nice but hardly anything special! And that was almost perfect according to QBR.

(AP)

(AP)

6. So in this new-fangled stat that was going to unlock the mysteries of football, a game not normally given to statistical analysis, ESPN of course normalized for defenses right? I mean, it’s one thing to have Tom Brady to throw for 360 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Lions but to do that against the Broncos is much different and much more impressive. That defensive talent is surely taken into account, right? NOPE!

With this rating, we have intentionally not adjusted for opponents. This doesn’t mean that we won’t adjust for opponents as we use it but that we want QBR to be flexible for many purposes, and keeping opponents’ strength out gives us that flexibility.

Translation: “We didn’t know what to do with this and we already have a system that is making a decent Charlie Batch game our best game ever, so just get off our backs already.”

(USA TODAY Sports Images)

(USA TODAY Sports Images)

7. With Fitzpatrick playing a usual mediocre game on Thursday in a Jets loss, he actually moved below Brady, one of the sadder development of the NFL season.

8. I don’t blame QBR for being horrible. I blame football for being a game that’s not like baseball. There are too many moving parts to rate a quarterback on a great game — his offensive line, speed of receivers, tipped balls, drops, closing speed of corners, situational passes, down-and-distances, etc. It’ll never work. But good on ESPN for trying. Just realize when you’ve failed and pull the plug on this idiocy.

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