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Talking Points:
- GBP/JPY Technical Strategy: Flat
- Four consecutive days of selling at 184-184.80 may be marking a near-term top in the pair.
- GBP/JPY continuing to hold on to last week’s gains; breaks above 185.18 set bullish-continuation stance.
GBP/JPY continues to hold on to gains from last week, albeit reluctantly as we’ve now seen four consecutive days of resistance in the 184-184.80 region. There are numerous levels-of-interest in this vicinity, as 184 is a confluent Fibonacci zone, as 50% of the ‘big picture’ move (taking the 2007 high to the 2011 low), as well as 23.6% of the most recent move (taking the 2015 high to the September 2015 low).
Continued resistance in this confluent zone is marking a near-term top that could open the door for short-side reversal plays. Traders can look to lodge stops above the 185.18 resistance area, as this would get risk levels outside of a key psychological level of 185 while also taking into account the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the secondary move (taking the October 2014 low to the June 2015 high). Targets could be set to 182.50 (major psychological level, as well as previous price action swing-low), and 181.88 (50% of the secondary move).
Breaks above 185.18 should be construed bullishly, and traders can look to cast top-side targets at 186.25 (38.2% of the most recent major move) and then 188.00 (50% retracement of the same move).
Longer-term support in the 180 region marks the lower bounds recent price action on the pair. Should prices move to this area, 180.30 becomes a level of interest (the six-month-low) as does 180-even (major psychological level). Projecting just below 180 is a long-term trend-line that doesn’t cross 180 until later in the month. But should this level come into play over the next few weeks, this could offer an attractive area of confluence at which point long positions could set up with stops below this confluent support.
Use Retail Trader Positioning to Filter Trends
--- Written by James Stanley, Analyst for DailyFX.com
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