The monsoon has resumed its withdrawal from more parts of North-West India, including fringes of Punjab, Haryana, and the larger Rajasthan on Tuesday.

India Met Department sees conditions becoming favourable for its withdrawal from more parts of the North-West during the next three to four days.

Tough resistance

But it is becoming increasingly probable that the withdrawing monsoon could run into tough resistance from the South.

Already, there is vigorous monsoon activity over the Peninsula after the Northwest Pacific typhoon ‘Kilo’ inspired some latent activity over the Bay of Bengal across which the flows are headed.

The typhoon is now located to the east of the east coast of Japan from where it would take a detour north-northeast towards the Russian coast. New tropical storm ‘Etau’ has just formed south of Japan.

The flows over peninsular India and the Bay of Bengal could be sustained thanks by an upper air cyclonic circulation that manifested over West-central Bay of Bengal on Monday.

Under close watch

The circulation persisted on Tuesday as well. This apart, the land-based trough running from Marathawada to Lakshadweep is also supporting the flows, triggering the rain over peninsula. Global models are watching the behaviour of the circulation, which they expect to descend to the lower levels and set up a low-pressure area.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts says that the ‘low could ’intensify a round or two and become at least a rare depression in the Bay late in the season.

Peer models say that the ‘line of fire’ in the central Pacific where strong El Nino warms up the ocean and breeds violent storms, may relent briefly, only to ‘light up’ the seas closer to India.

Storm breeding

Violent weather may manifest over the South China Sea and propagate to the Bay to its east and even to the Arabian Sea, replicating a ‘minefield’ to this side of the Pacific.

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