When Scott Walker opened the door at a 1920’s-style soda fountain here Wednesday to begin three days of courting the state’s donors and voters, the Wisconsin governor embarked on the most aggressive push yet by a non-Texan to wrestle control of the state away from its native sons.
Five of the 17 Republicans running for president call Texas one of their homes. And it’s quite possible none of them could win it.
The battle for Texas – an early voting, delegate-rich state home to some of the GOP’s most prolific contributors – is more intense than ever.
Surprising some of the state’s most keen observers, the Texans are struggling to defend their home turf, losing ground to national stars like Donald Trump and Ben Carson who have virtually no ties to the Lone Star State. That means the hometown boys are increasingly moving to shore up their coalitions: On Thursday, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz will barnstorm through the state, rallying the troops that elevated him from obscurity to the Senate in 2012.
“People should be coming down here and competing for the state,” said top Republican lobbyist Bill Miller, explaining that Cruz has not locked down Texas. “I don’t think he has it in the bag.”
Cruz and Walker are placing a particular emphasis on the states that vote on March 1, and Texas’ 155 delegates are the crown jewel of that Tuesday’s contests. A dozen other states vote on what has been dubbed “SEC Primary” day, with Georgia’s 76 delegates being the second biggest prize.
While Cruz remains popular in his home state, some of the other Texans have proven weaker than might have been expected: Rand Paul, whose father inspired a legion of supporters well beyond his wide congressional district, barely registers in polls. Rick Perry, who clutched the state with a powerful grip for 14 years as governor, has lost much of his donor base that made him a Texas titan.
“I have a lot of respect for Rick Perry, but his time has passed,” said Mica Mosbacher, who co-chaired Perry’s national campaign in 2012, but is now raising money for Cruz.
A veteran of presidential fundraising, Mosbacher has been dispatched to raise money from business-minded donors who might be more inclined to support candidates like Jeb Bush than the anti-establishment Cruz.
“It’s not that they dislike Jeb – they feel like he doesn’t quite have the passion,” Mosbacher said.
The son of an ex-president in Houston and brother of an ex-president here in Dallas, Bush has won over some of those top-dollar fundraisers, but is by no means a dominant force in the state. (The situation is not dissimilar from Bush’s other home state of Florida, where he and Sen. Marco Rubio are also being beaten by a non-Floridian: Trump.)
And Carly Fiorina may have been born in Austin, but voters here on the ground don’t quickly identify the former Senate candidate from California as a Texan.
The donors’ homestate
So out-of-staters like Walker are trying to gain ground. He dished repeated compliments to the state’s governor, Greg Abbott. He boasted of his personal friendships with Houston Texans star J.J. Watt and Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo. He worked the room Wednesday for two hours.
“Texas is a red state. People like red-state governance. The difference is I governed like a red-state governor and I live in a blue state,” Walker told reporters when asked why Texas Republicans should go with him instead of one of their own. “Voters here in Texas should say, ‘Lot of good people, many of whom are friends of mine.’ But none of them have been tested the way we’ve been tested.”
The three meet-and-greets Walker scheduled across the state weren’t the only draw for the candidate: Fundraisers in Austin, Houston and Dallas also motivate Walker’s Texas play.
Nearly every other Republican candidate has already dropped in on the state’s big cities to collect checks, often months before they formally announced their bids. About $10 million flowed from Texas into the campaign coffers this past spring, with Cruz raking it about $6 million of those dollars.
“We raised nearly six times what Jeb Bush did from the state of Texas,” Cruz gloated to reporters on Tuesday after speaking to an elite group of Houston businessmen. “That is gratifying.”
But as it does nationally, much of the Texas money was instead routed through super PACs that can accept seven-figure checks from the state’s billionaires. Two Texas families gave Cruz’s groups $25 million, and two different ones gave Perry’s another $11 million.
Many of those premier Texas donors are part of a new generation of wealth, products of the state’s energy boom that now shows signs of subsiding. Some of the old political money has evaporated: Houston homebuilder Bob Perry, one of the biggest Republican donors in the last presidential cycle, died in 2013. Dallas investor Harold Simmons, who ranked a few spots behind him, passed away a few months later.
“Certainly there are new faces that are popping up and making large donations that had not done so in the past,” as do every cycle, said prominent Dallas donor Chart Westcott, whose family will host a fundraiser for Walker here Thursday. “Texas is the bank of the conservative movement.”
A border state
It isn’t just possible financiers that are encouraging outsiders to encroach on the Texans’ land. Seeking a backdrop that aligns with their tough rhetoric, Republicans have trekked to the state’s 1,200-mile long border with Mexico for tours and photographs.
Bush appeared in McAllen last month, telling reporters: “My intention is to win the Texas primary.”
Trump made a whirlwind expedition to Laredo in late July that triggered a dizzying media firestorm. And Walker’s last visit came in March when he beefed up his credentials along the border at Abbott’s invitation.
Abbott, elected last November, could offer a possibly king-making endorsement ahead of the state’s primary on March 1. He may be forced to choose between his predecessor as governor, Perry, and his mentee as attorney general, Cruz.
Other state Republican leaders are as split as the voters and donors are. Tea party hero Dan Patrick, the lieutenant governor, hasn’t made an endorsement but has lavished praise on Cruz. John Cornyn, the patrician U.S. Senate Majority Leader, declined to endorse his Senate colleague, a frequent agitator of leadership. And Joe Straus, the House speaker with deep ties to the business establishment, is leading Bush’s Texas campaign.
“We’re just waiting to see who rises to the top and has the ability to raise money, but also inspire,” said Wade Emmert, the influential chair of the Dallas County GOP.
The Texas candidates’ inability to dominate isn’t for a lack of trying.
Paul opened an Austin branch of his campaign and headlined one of the state’s biggest Republican dinners here in the spring. Many of the Bush bundlers that powered George W. Bush’s Texas gubernatorial runs are once again raising money for Jeb.
And Perry has tried to cobble together the Texas establishment that rallied around him when he ran in 2012, but his money base has been severely undercut by Cruz, forcing his super PAC to try and rescue his cash-strapped campaign.
Cruz has retained some of the luster he has with donors and grassroots activists. But his three-event day on Thursday may reflect he will still have a fight on his hands and that a win at home can’t be taken for granted.
Candidates like Trump, who is planning a visit back to Texas this month, and Walker are hoping those four leave some space for them. And voters here said they don’t feel obligated to vote for one of the Republicans with Texas ties.
“Where they’re from?” asked store owner J.L. Sonny Williams, who helped serve Walker a vanilla ice-cream soda – but isn’t ready to endorse him. “That wouldn’t bother me one way or the other.”