Moody's reckons SA will dodge recession

03 September 2015 - 02:06 By Reuters

Rating agency Moody's said yesterday it expects South Africa to avoid sliding into a recession this year, despite signs that the economy is struggling after contracting in the second quarter this year. Moody's senior vice-president, Kristin Lindow, said the country did not warrant a negative outlook.Electricity shortages, low commodity prices, a drought and weaker than expected global growth will constrain Africa's most advanced economy over the next 18 months, said Lindow.But this was already reflected in the government's Baa2 rating, which had a stable outlook, she said.The agency stated: "While Moody's expects South Africa to avoid recession in 2015, the rating agency forecasts growth of only 1.7% in 2015 and 1.9% in 2016, with 3% growth unlikely before 2017 or 2018 at the earliest ."The treasury welcomed Moody's affirmation of its rating.Volatility in capital flows and the foreign exchange rate is adding to the nation's economic challenges and any progress to reverse a slowing economy will only be felt in the medium to long term, Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene said."There is indeed no doubt that South Africa faces significant constraints to faster economic growth," he told parliament yesterday.The economy contracted by 1.3% on an annual basis in the second quarter, data showed last week...

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