If the Yankees had to win one game — perhaps the AL wild-card matchup — and could send out whomever they wanted on full rest, would they pick Nathan Eovaldi?
The answer doesn’t really matter. That Eovaldi would be in serious consideration is one of the most vital occurrences of this season — and future seasons — for the Yankees.
There has been an Eovaldi evolution this year from hard-throwing underperformer to a starter who, according to Brian McCann, “has no ceiling.”
Eovaldi has performed like a top starter for more than two months (2.93 ERA in his last 12 starts) and something approximating an ace in his past two outings as he readies to pitch Sunday in Atlanta. That is too small a sample size to make a final determination. But not too few outings to generate some excitement for the rest of this year and beyond.
A scout familiar with Eovaldi from his NL days with the Dodgers and Marlins who saw the righty recently, said, “He is the best [starter] the Yankees have right now.”
How important is that?
Well, the Yankees offense has flat-lined, and suddenly the best part of the team looks like a rotation front four of Eovaldi, Luis Severino, Michael Pineda and Masahiro Tanaka. They are going to need that quartet either to outdo the Blue Jays or simply make the playoffs.
Tanaka is the oldest of the foursome at 26. Obviously, health is an issue with all pitchers, and the frailty of Pineda and Tanaka is particularly worrisome. But this is potentially a strong top four.
The Yankees will need this because CC Sabathia looks on his last arm and leg, Ivan Nova is a free agent after 2016 and the early read I have gotten is Hal Steinbrenner is not going to open the coffers this offseason to sign a big-time starter such as David Price or Johnny Cueto. Eovaldi, who can’t be a free agent until after 2017, is instrumental to the near future. But is this real or a mirage?
We have seen similar big-stuff starters such as the Padres’ Tyson Ross and the Cubs’ Jake Arrieta need to be traded elsewhere at similar mid-20s ages before blossoming in the new locale. Which is why clubs are always trying to obtain big arms.
Brian Cashman was invited to fly from New York to San Diego for last year’s Winter Meetings on Jeffrey Loria’s private jet and asked the Marlins owner about Eovaldi in both directions. Miami blinked in late December, wanting Martin Prado to play third base.
I thought it was a bad trade. I viewed Prado as a glue guy, a winning type who would help a veteran team more than a starter whose inability to miss bats meant he was likely to end up a middle reliever.
But there were advantages in New York. Larry Rothschild is an excellent pitching coach. A strong bullpen allowed Eovaldi to be supported early when Joe Girardi did not trust him to navigate a lineup a third time through. And in McCann and John Ryan Murphy, there were heady, steady catchers considered strong in nuances such as pitch framing and pitch sequencing that Miami’s main receiver last year, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, was not.
Eovaldi credited Murphy and McCann for keeping him “from being so fastball happy, especially when I am in trouble. They broke me of that.” And Rothschild changed the grip on Eovaldi’s splitter so he would stop choking the pitch and could gain greater command. That coincides with the past two months.
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And the numbers are revelatory. Eovaldi (13-2, 4.00 ERA) never had mastered an off-speed pitch. Before this season, he threw six splitters in his career (data from Brooksbaseball.net), all in his final two starts last year. He began to use it more regularly this season, but especially over his past 11 starts, in each of which he has thrown at least 21 splitters. He threw 49 in his last turn against the Astros — by far his most ever and the first time in his career he had thrown any pitch more often than his fastball.
Eovaldi now has a pitch to change eye levels down to counterbalance his 95-plus mph heat upstairs. The split has afforded him something to neutralize lefties, who had destroyed him in the past (.292 average and .771 OPS against, before this year) and in his first 13 starts this season (.400 average, 1.009 OPS in 135 at-bats).
Since then, lefties are batting .225 with a .548 OPS and no homers in 129 at-bats off Eovaldi. That includes 3-for-27 (.111) in Eovaldi’s past two — and best two — starts.
“He always had trouble against lefties,” the scout said. “He never had a suitable changeup to deal with them. Now he is throwing a split that is 89-92 [mph] and a fastball that can get up to 99-100. It is just nasty. The game I saw him, it was devastating.”
McCann called the split “a plus-plus pitch” now and said Eovaldi’s slider also has become more consistent.
“It is scary because he is getting better with his arm and stuff,” McCann said. “I feel like he is going to be a top-of-the-rotation guy, 100 percent.”
Eovaldi has another factor working to his advantage. Alex Rodriguez said the 25-year-old “has more energy than any human being I have ever seen.”
Murphy said Eovaldi “is the hardest worker I have ever seen. I think I am an early arriver to the park, but by the time I get here he is already always sweating.”
It also means he has a lot in the tank. The diving action of the split is making his fastball more dangerous, and his 96.6 mph average is tops in the majors among qualified starters (Matt Harvey is second at 96 mph). His final three fastballs Monday in the eighth inning were 99, 100 and 100 mph.
“He is as good as anybody with that split,” Murphy said. “He has evolved into a top-of-the-line guy. He’s a monster, a beast. He doesn’t get tired. In the sixth inning, it looks as if he can go another six innings.”
Suddenly, it looks as if Eovaldi has a chance to pitch toward the top of a rotation — and not just in 2015.