Every sports fan should hope Serena Williams wins the U.S. Open. It’ll be a memorable piece of sports history and a boon for the sport in America. But I don’t think it’s happening. I believe Serena’s quest to become the fourth-ever calendar Slam winner ends in New York. Here’s why:

1. Tournaments don’t always determine the best player. Marin Cilic winning the Open last year and Marion Bartoli winning Wimbledon the year before that is all the proof you need. So don’t pencil in Serena for a title simply because she’s the greatest female athlete of her generation. Yes, she’s won 21 Grand Slams, the second most of all time, but she’s also lost 39. That means she’s won 35% of her major tournaments, which is stunning, but still means she’s lost almost twice as much as she’s won. Winning seven matches in 14 days is nothing anyone should take for granted, even when you’re as dominant as Serena.

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2. The pressure, like the rhythm, is eventually going to get you. I like how Serena is acknowledging the existence of pressure. Talking about it in public can only help her nerves when that pressure inevitably comes. I like how she’s talking about the Slam in public, acknowledging that it’s a big deal and something she wants. “I have always dreamt of winning the Grand Slam,” she told reporters. “It was just a dream. I never thought I would be close to doing something like that.” But we’ll see whether that calms the pressure or intensifies it. If she was feeling pressure in the final of the French Open, back when she wasn’t even halfway to the Slam, imagine what she’ll feel when she steps in front of 22,000 at Arthur Ashe Stadium for seven matches, each with tennis immortality hanging in the balance?

3. To be fair, Serena usually wins the big-pressure match but her resume is littered with ones she didn’t, particularly at the U.S. Open. Remember Kim Clijsters in the semis? Sam Stosur in the finals? It’s been four years since she’s lost in Gotham, but when she’s fallen in New York, she’s fallen hard (and controversially, of course).

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4. In Serena’s last seven Grand Slam losses, every defeat has come to a player ranked No. 14 or below and five of those seven losses came to women seeded No. 25 or below, including three who weren’t seeded at all. That includes the stunning loss to No. 111 Virginie Razzano, one which led to Serena hiring Patrick Mouratoglou, the coach who’s worked with her in her recent run of dominance. (That’s what they call a lose-win.) Serena can clearly beat anybody. But she can lose to anyone too.

5. The aforementioned pressure got to Serena in the French Open final, when she was up a set and a break and cruising against Lucie Safarova, before losing the second set and going down a break in the third before then turning it on. She could, and probably should, have lost to Victoria Azarenka twice in Slams this year and definitely should have lost to Sloane Stephens at the French. Heather Watson had her on the ropes at Wimbledon. An optimist would say these wins are a symbol of Serena’s fortitude. A pessimist would say they’re a sign she can be beat. They’re both, but can the run of pulling out matches continue?

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6. One caveat to my prediction, and it’s an odd one: I think Serena loses in the quarters or before, maybe to Sloane Stephens, maybe to Madison Keys, maybe to Belinda Bencic, who knows. However, if she does make the semis, then she’ll win the title. Serena dominates the best competition. It’s the lesser players with which she sometimes struggles.

7. The question has to be asked, if not Serena, then whom? How about: “the field.” That’s what these tournaments always are anyway: Serena vs. The Field, the same way it was in the heyday of Tiger. Victoria Azarenka could get back in winning form. Simona Halep has expertly managed her summer. The teenager Bencic could come out of nowhere. Maria Sharapova hasn’t played since Wimbledon, but she’s always a threat. The point is, if it’s not Serena, it could be anyone. And that’s why I’m picking “anyone,” because “anyone” has absolutely nothing to lose, while Serena has everything to.

(USA TODAY Sports Images)