One of the biggest benefits of taking part in the ESPN mock drafts is seeing the contrast in the draft-day approaches of some of the top minds in fantasy football. Between the variations in player values, risk management and roster composition, it provides a spectrum of insights into how to go about building a winning fantasy football team.
For this latest mock draft, a half-point-per-reception (PPR) league, we'll be taking an even deeper look at those mindsets by getting detailed feedback from the owners of a 12-team mock league consisting of myself, Tristan H. Cockcroft, Eric Karabell, Field Yates, Jim McCormick, Keith Lipscomb, Randy Scott, Joe Kaiser, Mike Clay, Tim Kavanagh, Pierre Becquey and Jeff Ratcliffe. In each round, I will provide a quick overview of the thought process that went into my pick. That will be followed by a question-and-answer overview of some of the analysts' picks in those rounds.
My pick: There is a strong case to be made for Anderson as the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy football drafts, so getting him at the No. 4 spot was a plus.
Question for Randy Scott: A lot of people will be on board with Antonio Brown as the No. 5 overall pick in this format. For those who don't agree, what is the case for taking him over some top running backs?
Scott: "Listen, the drop-off from full-point PPR to half-point PPR does boost the value of that top tier of running backs, but I'd still take the top WR if there's absolutely any element of PPR in the scoring. To me, the push this year is to nail down a top-tier WR over a top-tier RB because the drop-off from Tier 1 to Tier 2 at receiver is steep. Steeper than the drop-off at RB, in my opinion. The more mock drafts I do, the more comfortable I become with a sort of "zero-RB" draft plan, especially in PPR formats."
Question for Jim McCormick: Do you have any concerns about the Broncos rushing the ball more? If so, what is the floor on Thomas' value?
McCormick: "New Broncos offensive coordinator Rick Dennison deployed some run-heavy offenses in Houston that still saw Andre Johnson feast as the top target; like in 2012 when the Texans were sixth in rush percentage and fourth in overall rushing attempts, while Johnson posted a 112/1,598/4 slash line in his age-31 season (Thomas is just 27, entering his prime). Even if the Broncos do trend more run-heavy, as the offseason tea leaves suggest, after finishing 12th in rush percentage last season, I'm not concerned it would compromise Thomas' production ceiling of his undeniably high floor. Thomas, after all, scored the second-most fantasy points among wideouts in 2013 on just 140 targets (12th in the league, compared to last season's league-leading 185), suggesting the floor for production is quite sturdy."
My pick: Last season, Nelson was one of only two wide receivers to post double digits in touchdowns on vertical passes (defined as aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield). His ability to do this despite battling a hip injury that has since been repaired shows why he ranks second on my wide receiver board and why he is a great WR1 candidate.
Question for Tristan H. Cockcroft: Were you surprised that LeSean McCoy fell into Round 2? What is his upside potential this season?
Cockcroft: "Well, McCoy's upside probably isn't that much removed from his 2013, and the point of the pick was the hope that he'd be more a part of the receiving game in Buffalo, even if he falls short of 300 carries. I'd imagine that he'll have at least as many touches this year as last, and if he gets there by converting 25 from the rush to receiving column, I'd be pleased with that in a half-PPR league. I was pretty pleased that he lasted as long as he did."
Question for Pierre Becquey: Were you surprised to see Gronkowski fall into Round 2 of a PPR league? Do you think he will still be able to produce high point totals if Tom Brady doesn't return for the Patriots' first four games?
Becquey: "Gronk will be one of the top two ranked tight ends every week this season, with or without Brady. He's a matchup nightmare. I could probably throw to him and he'd make something happen."
My pick: Getting Ingram as a RB2 in this round was a big plus. He was a lead back in a pass-first offense last year and still ranked 14th in running back points despite missing three games. Ingram has the same point-scoring capability in 2015 even with the Saints switching to more of a run-first offense.
Question for Field Yates: You've been the leader of the Melvin Gordon bandwagon and thus had to be very happy he fell to you in this round. What's his upside potential?
Yates: "I'm as optimistic about Gordon as almost anyone, as I have him as my No. 12 RB entering the season. I see hardly any holes in his game and the role looks defined to me: 250-plus touches as a Week 1 starter. The Chargers' O-line was impacted by injuries last season, but looks more powerful and skilled entering 2015."
Question for Tim Kavanagh: Was the Rodgers pick partially due to your team selecting Randall Cobb in Round 2? Do you suggest fantasy owners stack players in this manner?
Kavanagh: "I was a little surprised that Rodgers was still on the board for me at that spot (No. 26 overall); to wit, he went seven spots earlier in a previous ESPN experts mock that was a full-PPR format, and this one is only half-PPR. I don't always go for stacking a QB and one of his wideouts, but when it's an offense like the Packers', you know they're going to generate a ton of fantasy points this year. While I didn't specifically target Cobb and Rodgers as a package, once I saw that Rodgers was still there for my second pick on the wraparound, it made my choice a lot easier."
My pick: Tate posted across-the-board, upper-tier totals in nearly every yards per attempt (YPA) metric. He posted 10 or more points in six out of eight games at one stretch last season. With the durability question marks Calvin Johnson has, it would not be a surprise to see Tate equal or outscore Megatron again this season.
Question for Eric Karabell: Joique Bell was a seemingly risky pick, but that risk was offset by taking Ameer Abdullah in Round 7. If the Lions' backfield ends up as a platoon, would you consider putting Bell or Abdullah in the lineup as the second running back and the other as the flex? Or is the hope that one of them will end up as the lead back and the other will end up as a highly valuable insurance policy?
Karabell: "I agree, Bell wasn't my favorite selection, but I chose him pretty much where ESPN and I rank him, and the added relevance of receptions helped. I expect a good, not great season. Nabbing Abdullah made sense, and it wasn't a reach. The hope is that Bell is the main guy. With the look of this roster, the flex choice will almost always be a wide receiver."
Question for Mike Clay: You mentioned in the mock draft chat room that Hyde had home run potential. Do you think he could end up as a steal in this round and rack up RB1-caliber points?
Clay: "Although I'll admit I'm concerned that San Francisco may struggle mightily this season, I think that's overshadowed by the simple fact that Hyde has tremendous ability. He forced one missed tackle for every 3.32 carries last season, which trailed only Marshawn Lynch for best in the league. And he looked the part on film. Reggie Bush's and Kendall Hunter's third-down contributions limit Hyde's PPR appeal, but I do feel he has RB1 potential. I think 1,000 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns are realistic targets."
My pick: The Saints are going to go with more of a run-heavy approach, so there should be plenty of rushes and targets to go around for their running backs. This means it is possible to put both Spiller and Ingram into a fantasy starting lineup every week.
Question for Yates: How will the change to the flanker position impact Vincent Jackson's numbers? Will he turn into more of a dink-and-dunk wide receiver? Or will it add some home run chances as well?
Yates: "I'm a little less concerned with Jackson's role and was more focused on the available talent at that spot. We often talk about how heavy touchdown seasons can be an anomaly for a player (think James Jones in 2012). So, too, can be a lack of touchdowns. Jackson won't put up just a pair of scores in 2015. I would say 1,000-plus yards and six-plus TDs is more likely."
Question for Joe Kaiser: Is part of the Latavius Murray pick due to having Le'Veon Bell out for the first two games of the season? Are you figuring Murray's durability questions might not come up until later, so he's a good fit for this team in that sense?
Kaiser: "I took Murray over Rashad Jennings and T.J. Yeldon because I liked what he showed in flashes last season, and I feel like he's going to get the bulk of the carries for the Raiders with Trent Richardson being his main competition. I had to take a running back here, because if I waited another round I was going to be out of luck. With me being the first pick of the draft, waiting would have meant going from Pick 49 to Pick 72 before I was up to draft again."
My pick: Roethlisberger is arguably the second-best quarterback in the NFL. He will be throwing upwards of 200 passes to the best wide receiver in the league and another 75-100 aerials to the league's best running back. Add in playing behind a dominant offensive line and the potential development of Martavis Bryant into an elite deep threat (more on him below) and it means Roethlisberger could compete with Rodgers and Andrew Luck for the top spot among fantasy quarterbacks in 2015. Given Roethlisberger's current mid-fifth-round ADP, he could be the highest-upside value pick a fantasy owner makes in this year's draft.
Question for Scott: Do you think Darren McFadden could be a sleeper pick this year?
Scott: "I hated this pick as soon as I made it. As a Raiders fan, he's broken my heart and dealt me such football pain. I swore I wouldn't put myself through that again. But one of my primary rules of fantasy football is the fact that you have to have a short memory. And I want a share of this Cowboys backfield. Joseph Randle is definitely the guy to own, but McFadden, when healthy (big question mark there) is ahead of him on the depth chart. I'm not overly concerned about him being on the PUP list at this point in the offseason, either. It was a little early to take him, but it was also too early to go QB, in my opinion. I thought about Martavis Bryant at that point, but I thought he'd still be there in Round 7."
Question for Yates: How much of an upgrade is Shane Vereen to the Giants' offense? How many receptions can you see him racking up this season?
Yates: "The Giants have collected a large base of pass-catchers that gives Eli Manning flexibility in their quick-hitting attack. Vereen is dependable as a passing-down back but also has enough quickness and elusiveness to carry the ball between the tackles. But he'll make his money catching passes, and 55 isn't out of reach for him."
My pick: Drafting starters before backups whenever possible is a good rule of thumb for fantasy owners. Since Olsen ranks third in my tight end rankings and was a better option than the backup options available on the board, taking him looked to be a sensible selection.
Question for Kavanagh: The Martavis Bryant pick was widely cheered in the in-draft chat room. Were you surprised he made it to Round 7? How much upside does he have?
Kavanagh: "Through the first five rounds, I grabbed reliable options at QB, one RB slot and both WR slots, provided Andre Johnson stays healthy. (I'm not very excited about Rashad Jennings as my RB2, but so it goes.) With Johnson and Randall Cobb providing consistency, I was able to go for some upside plays for my WR3 and WR4. Bryant is a perfect type of player for this strategy, and I was lucky he lasted all the way to me at No. 74 overall. We got a glimpse last year of just how explosive he can be -- he averaged 10 fantasy points per game in standard scoring (11.3 in this format) and hit the 20-point mark twice -- and with another offseason of work with Ben Roethlisberger, he should be even better this year. Antonio Brown will obviously be the key to Pittsburgh's passing game, but there's definitely room for another big performer, and Bryant has also shown strong abilities as a red zone target."
Question for Clay: How close do you think Breshad Perriman can come to replicating Torrey Smith's numbers in this offense?
Clay: "I worry about Perriman's age (21) and hands (13.79 percent drop rate in 2014 was third worst among players drafted this year), but he's a bigger and better version of Smith and has an outstanding opportunity in Baltimore. Steve Smith is 36 and, other than Justin Forsett, Joe Flacco has very little else to work with. Perriman should easily blow the likes of Kamar Aiken, Marlon Brown, Michael Campanaro and Crockett Gillmore away on the target totem pole. His situation reminds me a lot of Kelvin Benjamin's in Carolina last year. I love Perriman's upside in the middle rounds."
My pick: The 49ers needed a big upgrade in their vertical passing game, and Smith gives them that upgrade. He is also the type of wide receiver who can beat any level of competition, something evidenced by a 10.0 YPA when facing a starting-caliber cornerback last season (ranked tied for 10th among wide receivers).
Question for Cockcroft: Any concerns about the Panthers' wide receiver corps holding Cam Newton back a bit? Or will the new pass-catching additions improve his numbers from last season?
Cockcroft: "I don't have any major concerns about Newton's passing performance regressing; it's actually more of a question for me about his rushing scores, if anything. Kelvin Benjamin's an awfully good receiver, Greg Olsen always gets his catches and I could see Devin Funchess getting a decent amount of targets. I'd think Newton actually improves a bit this season, as I'm not sure he was entirely healthy all last year."
Question for McCormick: How many receptions will Duke Johnson be able to rack up in the Cleveland offense?
McCormick: "I could see 50 receptions even if he's solely relegated to third-down duties. I understand realistic concerns about his lack of pro experience and the inept offense he's joining, but this is an electric player in both traffic and space. Already with a proven set of hands on the collegiate level (impressive 9.9 yards per reception at Miami), I would bet this kid leads an otherwise lackluster depth chart in total yards this season."
My pick: Montee Ball is a must-have handcuff pick for anyone selecting Anderson. A case could have been made to take Ball a round earlier than this, as that is how important getting him as a handcuff is.
Question for Becquey: What's the risk/reward on Harvin? Think he can get 100 targets in that offense? Will the QB play hold him back?
Becquey: "A ninth-round pick is where you take risks. As the first player on my bench, I look for guys who have a chance to be flex-worthy during the season. Harvin is a guy who can make things happen without the quarterback being involved, and I think Buffalo will use him since they can't just give LeSean McCoy and Fred Jackson the ball 50 times a game."
My pick: Kenny Stills ranked second among wide receivers in vertical YPA and fourth in stretch vertical YPA (production on passes thrown 20 or more yards downfield). He potentially solves a huge problem for Miami's offense and could become the centerpiece of the Dolphins' downfield aerial attack. It's great to get someone of his big-play caliber this late in a draft.
Question for Kaiser: What's the mindset behind taking Seattle's D/ST this early?
Kaiser: "I took the Seahawks' defense this early because I didn't like the value that remained at any of the other positions, but I'm mostly referring to running back and receiver. I was already set at quarterback and tight end, so I wanted to jump on the top defense while I had the chance."
My pick: Denard Robinson finished tied for 12th in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that measures a ball carrier's productivity when given good blocking. The arrival of T.J. Yeldon moves Robinson to a change-of-pace role, but that kind of breakaway skill gives him plenty of fantasy point production value.
Question for Karabell: The Dolphins gave Ryan Tannehill a huge contract as a potential franchise quarterback. He finished as a QB1 in fantasy last season. What are the odds he moves up the QB1 ladder in 2015?
Karabell: "Tannehill was a top-10 fantasy QB last season and I like his weapons better now. I don't expect a leap into top-5 relevance, but when it became clear I would be waiting a long time at QB, it was him or Eli Manning. I realize I chose the less popular QB according to the draft room, but I'm not so sure why that is. ESPN ranks Tannehill greater."
My pick: The Bills were the top-scoring D/ST last season and now they have Rex Ryan calling plays. A repeat of that No. 1 ranking could be in order, and that makes Buffalo a quality Round 12 pick.
Question for Kaiser: Do you think Dwayne Allen ends up splitting targets with Coby Fleener? Or does Allen get the lion's share of TE targets this year?
Kaiser: "If I could go back again and do it over, I'd go with the other Colts tight end and take Fleener over Allen. Last season, Fleener averaged 5.7 targets per game compared to Allen's 4.2, and Fleener also had 14 targets within the red zone compared to nine for Allen. I'd expect Fleener to be Luck's more popular target again in 2015."
My pick: Trusting that Roethlisberger will be healthy behind a great offensive line made it possible to take a swing at the fences with a backup quarterback. Chip Kelly's field generals have posted superb fantasy numbers the past two years (18.6 points per game) and Bradford has the ability to do the same.
Question for Becquey: Your team has a fairly running back heavy lineup. What would be the odds that DeAngelo Williams ends up starting for this team in Weeks 1-2? Or is he more of a depth pick in the event Bell shows signs of wear and tear?
Becquey: "Fantasy is all about talent multiplied by opportunity. Talent is fairly static, it changes from year to year. But opportunity can change from play to play. Draft talent, not jobs, especially in the late rounds."
My pick: It's possible Antonio Gates doesn't have much left in the tank, but there aren't many fairly high percentage plays at this point of the draft. If Gates plays anywhere near to the level he played last season, this will have been a valuable pick.
Question for Clay: What's the skinny on taking Gostkowski this early?
Clay: "I usually wait until the final round for a kicker so I can drop said kicker to waivers most weeks and stash a high-upside player. This time around, I saw a large tier of upside fliers, so knowing I'd get one in the final round and that a massive percentage of the upcoming picks would be defenses and kickers, I pounced on the clear-cut top kicker. And, hey, sure enough I still landed Khiry Robinson in the final round."
My pick: Eli Manning could be a top-5 fantasy quarterback this year and the Giants are becoming more of a pass-first team. If Victor Cruz isn't up to dealing with a full workload the season after coming back from a major knee injury, Randle could easily see 100 or more targets in this offense.
Question for Scott: The Jets D/ST seems like an under-the-radar pick. Do you have a lot of faith in Todd Bowles, the Jets' personnel upgrades, or both?
Scott: "Man, my picks were the kiss of death, weren't they? McFadden on the PUP, and then this ridiculous Sheldon Richardson story. Even with the very real possibility Richardson doesn't play at all this season, I still love the Jets' personnel, love Todd Bowles putting his thumbprint on that defensive unit, and I think the schedule lends itself to some friendly matchups. I'm not taking a defense before the final two rounds of the draft, but if the Jets are there at that point, I won't be able to draft them fast enough."