This story is from August 1, 2015

Rainfall across the country in July lowest since 2002

This year’s monsoon may have defied El Nino in June, but meteorological data for July rainfall paints a bleak picture.
Rainfall across the country in July lowest since 2002
PUNE: This year’s monsoon may have defied El Nino in June, but meteorological data for July rainfall paints a bleak picture.
The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) data for the last 30 years showed that the 241.9mm rainfall that the country received in July this year is the lowest since the drought in 2002 when the country as a whole recorded 146.2 mm rainfall.
The deficit currently stands at -16%.
During most years since 1988, the country’s rainfall for this month has been over 250mm, and in some years over 300mm.
Private and government weather forecasters and experts said the deficit may have been to some extent due to El Nino conditions though other factors may have also played a role.
A senior met department official told TOI that the pan-India rainfall deficiency in July owes it to a glaring rainfall deficit in the southern peninsula this time, though central parts of northern India have received good rainfall. From July 1 till 29 alone, southern peninsula had recorded the highest rainfall deficiency in the country, at -46%.
“We had earlier forecast a 10% to 12% rainfall deficit for July, but it has turned out to be more. A typical feature this year has been that most disturbances which cause rainfall have been coming from the east and travelling over the Bay of Bengal to the Indian landmass. Conversely, the Indian Ocean’s monsoon circulation has been very weak, which means that the monsoon’s pulses are not progressing from the southern tip of India towards the north. This has caused a significant rainfall deficiency in the southern parts,” the met department official said.

GP Sharma, vice-president (meteorology), Skymet Weather Services, said rainfall mainly depends on the number of monsoon systems and their track. “The El Nino years 2002, 2004 and 1987 too had recorded deficient July rainfall, when you consider the data for the past several years. Analyzing them, one gets to understand that 2002 was a severe drought year, 2004 was a mild drought year and 1987 was a moderate drought year,” explained Sharma.
In 2004, the all-India July rainfall was close to 242.1 mm, while in 1987 it was 234.1 mm. Sometimes, droughts are coupled with El Nino, while at other times they can occur without it too, said experts.
Sharma added that July normally has most rains, followed by August and September. Hence, July is most crucial for the country’s rain quota. Sharma said, “It rained well (more than normal) only for nine days in July. In fact, July 23 till 29 was the week with most rainfall of the season for the country as a whole,” he said.
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About the Author
Neha Madaan

Neha Madaan is a senior feature writer at The Times of India, Pune. She holds an M A degree in Mass Communication and Journalism from University of Pune. She covers tourism, heritage development and its conservation, apart from an array of subjects such as civic issues, environment, astronomy, civic school education as well as social issues concerning persons with disabilities. Her interests include metaphysical research and animal rights.

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