Fitch Downgrades Mastellone Bonds to 'CCC-'; Ratings Placed on Negative Watch

CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--

Fitch Ratings has downgraded Mastellone Hermanos Sociedad Anonima's (Mastellone) local currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CCC' from 'B-' and its senior unsecured notes to 'CCC-/RR4' from 'CCC/RR4'. All the ratings have been placed on Rating Watch Negative. A full list of rating actions follows at the end of this press release.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

The downgrade of Mastellone's local currency IDR and its senior unsecured notes' reflects increased leverage and tighter liquidity due to weak performance in 2014. The affirmation of its foreign currency IDR reflects the company's operating environment in Argentina and that over 80% of EBITDA is generated in that country. In July 2015 the company paid the USD12.5 million coupon payment due on its senior unsecured notes. However, Fitch is concerned that the company will not be able to generate sufficient cash in the coming months to cover interest payments on its USD200 million notes; the Negative Watch for all the company's ratings reflects this concern.

Cash Flow Concentrated in Argentina

Mastellone's domestic market of Argentina contributed 87% to total sales and 82% to EBITDA. Its next most important market is Brazil, which comprised 7% of total sales and 18% of EBITDA. The company is exposed to double-digit inflation in Argentina and other direct and indirect sovereign-related risks, including devaluation and refinancing risks.

Exposure to Raw Milk Production

Argentine milk production declined for a second straight year in 2014 by about 2%. Mastellone's business is divided between sales to the Argentine and Brazilian domestic markets and exports; the excess between raw milk supply and domestic sales is exported. A shortage of raw milk production could lead to the interruption of the company's export business (7% of sales) or an increase in production costs. Both of these occurred in 2014 as Mastellone decided not to enter into any new export contracts during the fourth quarter given the low price of powdered milk and the costs related to the purchase of raw milk increased. Mastellone resumed exporting in the first quarter of 2015.

Dairy Prices Impact EBITDA

The decline in the international WMP price in the 4th quarter of 2014, increased expenses related to raw milk, wages and distribution-related costs negatively affected the company's EBITDA generation in 2014. Mastellone's EBITDA decreased to ARS363 million in 2014 from ARS397 million in 2013. EBITDA margins have deteriorated from 4% in 2013 to 3% in 2014. As of the March 31 LTM EBITDA was ARS202 million and Mastellone's EBITDA margin was 2%; the first quarter of 2015 saw continued contraction in Argentina, low international prices of powdered milk, low availability of raw milk, and a delay in the transfer of increased costs from the 4Q 2014 and 1Q 2015 to the consumer.

Tight Liquidity

Mastellone reported cash and marketable securities of about USD22 million as of March 31, 2015, relatively flat when compared with 2013. Short-term debt was USD73 million; current cash holdings cover 30% of current maturities. Fitch does not expect liquidity to improve in the near-term given the current availability of raw milk and depressed international prices for milk powder.

Increased Leverage

The significant drop in international prices as well as the low availability of raw milk and the associated costs led to a deterioration of Mastellone's leverage ratios above Fitch's expectation. The company reported debt/EBITDA of 5.9x and net debt/EBITDA of 5.2x as of year-end 2014; as of the March 31 LTM these ratios were 11.6x and 10.6x, respectively.

Currency Mismatch

Mastellone's debt is predominantly USD-denominated and creates currency risk as the company's sales are mainly in Argentine pesos. The company has not entered into any agreements to hedge its exposure to devaluation risk.

Solid Business Position

Mastellone is the largest dairy company and the leading processor of dairy products in Argentina. Mastellone maintains the largest market share of the fluid milk market in terms of physical volume with a market share of approximately 67%. The company maintains the first and second positions in most of its product lines. Its strong market shares allow it to benefit from economies of scale in the production, marketing and distribution of products, and to strengthen bargaining position. Mastellone purchases about 16 - 18% of raw milk production in Argentina which provides it with a degree of negotiation power.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Fitch's key assumptions within the rating case for Mastellone include the following:

--Revenue growth in line with inflation;

--EBITDA margin remains close to 2.5% on average;

--Maintenance level capex of about ARS200 million per year.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Mastellone's ratings could be negatively affected by a further economic deterioration in Argentina and its inability to convert and transfer foreign exchange for the companies. In addition, a continued deterioration in cash flows that further weakens the company's credit metrics could negatively impact Mastellone's credit rating.

A positive rating action is unlikely in the short- to medium- term.

LIQUIDITY

Mastellone reported cash and marketable securities of about USD22 million as of March 31, 2015. Short-term debt was USD73 million; current cash holdings cover 30% of current maturities. Almost 80% of Mastellone's debt is USD-denominated, which creates significant currency risk as the company's sales are over 90% denominated in Argentine Pesos. The company has not entered into any agreements to hedge its exposure to devaluation risk. The company has pre-export facilities with local and international banks; each facility is collateralized by a separate trust containing either sales collections to the domestic retail market, inventories (of parent company and Mastellone San Luis), or Leitesol's purchase order assignments. As of Dec. 31, 2014 the outstanding balance of the debt was ARS281,940. Fitch does not expect liquidity to improve substantially in the near-term given the current availability of raw milk and depressed international prices for milk powder.

Fitch has taken the following rating actions:

Mastellone Hermanos Sociedad Anonima

--Foreign currency IDR 'CCC'; Placed on Rating Watch Negative;

--Local currency long-term IDR downgraded to 'CCC' from 'B-'; Placed on Rating Watch Negative;

--Senior unsecured notes downgraded to 'CCC-/RR4' from 'CCC/'; Placed on Rating Watch Negative.

Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com

Applicable Criteria

Corporate Rating Methodology - Including Short-Term Ratings and Parent and Subsidiary Linkage (pub. 28 May 2014)

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=749393

Country-Specific Treatment of Recovery Ratings (pub. 28 Jun 2013)

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=710859

Additional Disclosures

Dodd-Frank Rating Information Disclosure Form

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/press_releases/content/ridf_frame.cfm?pr_id=988890

Solicitation Status

https://www.fitchratings.com/gws/en/disclosure/solicitation?pr_id=988890

Endorsement Policy

https://www.fitchratings.com/jsp/creditdesk/PolicyRegulation.faces?context=2&detail=31

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