Deutsche Bank said Macau stocks had rallied 15% since the transit visa relaxation on 1 July in the hope of improving GGR. Yet, July MTD GGR/day was only MOP596m (still-35% yoy), merely 3% above the seasonally-weak June.
The research house fears that Macau is losing its appeal to visitors: June marked the fourth month of falling visitation (total -8% yoy; Chinese -10% yoy).
It added that the recent Chinese stock market crash would likely hurt VIP & premium mass demand. Historically, there is a high (70%) correlation that Macau GGR falls six months after Shanghai A-share falls. After the recent rally, Deutsche Bank sees more downside risks.
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