Good morning,

Danny is away and asked me to fill in for him today. Yesterday’s commentary highlighted that the market was in a position to bounce. Much fanfare was made of the 2068 ES price (2077 cash), the fact that the Bulls accomplish nothing until ES 2075.5 (SPOT) is converted to support, and that underneath ALL EYES would be on the 200 Daily Moving Average Cash @ 2054 rounded.

On a slightly larger picture I have often used mnemonics in my work in an effort to have certain dates and/or prices stick in their minds. I view it as no coincidence that the all time high came in on TIME 5/22 AKA the Billy and that the price was between 2132.5 and 2138 cash. After all that resistance price was given in November and repeated with urgency beginning April 9, 2015.

The same goes for the 6/20 high aka the MEREDITH and all that was required for that Time High to be in force was drop back below the ES 2112 (SPOT). Both of these key elements were also given and harangued repeatedly. Furthermore, it was given that the Bears would commit themselves to the drop at the ES 2095.5 (SPOT) and be CONFIRMED as ‘all in ‘ (poker term) on a break of the ES 2063.5 SPOT. More often than not these prices produce minimum double digit bounces from their near by reversals against the trend (in this case down) allowing one to press the trade directionally in favor of the trend. This is tantamount to ‘selling bounces’ in downtrends. It is also why closing the week last week at the ES 2095.5 SPOT in fornt of another Greek weekend. If you are day trading, more likely than not you avoid that entry. If you are swing or position trading, that close was a gift. This is how you use price and money management to QUANTIFY PRICE when people say buy the dip, sell the rip or the ubiquitous ‘buy low sell high ‘.

SYNOPSIS: we did a double bottom stop pick off with too many eyes on the 200 MA yesterday, we topped 1 handle off the 2068 pre-id, we are bouncing, the trend is down, the OVER/UNDER price of the week is still the 2063.5 SPOT, and the BEARS still own the trend below the 2095.5 ES SPOT. The rest of the week for those looking for catalysts is going to be: Greece, there will be a JUMP BALL close today in honor of NFP on Thursday and Friday is a stub day. The Bears need to kill the 200 MA and accelerate the decline torwars the key cash price of 2039.69 and on defense maintain the trend by keeping ES 2095.5 SPOT above them. That last sentence is a glance or snippet of how the daily prose section of the Commentary is written.

Now for the obligatory tawdry section where I talk about me and hawk my wares-you can laugh now. I have been using computerized trading since 1984 when CQG sold me an EPSON boat anchor and loaned me a satellite dish. I have been using tradestation since 1990 because it is programmable. My analysis is top down (largest time frames to smallest) and trading ideas are bottoms up. Each day I produce a commentary divided into two parts: PROSE and a price sheet known as THE NUMBAHS. I view trading and traders in a fishing analogy. They fall into these 3 categories: Sardines are day traders and scalpers. Tuna are what is labeled as swing traders, and billfish are looking for the big one, the position trade.

Most of the commentary is written for the day trade and employs a TIME model in addition to PRICE. It is done to identify the 5-7 intra-day swings which occur daily. It is written in advance and received well before the open..Subscription members receive some real time posts gratis Brian Shepard, Danny’s partner on the floor. You are provided a glossary of terms, most of which are LITERALLY VISUAL. The writing is done from a WHAT NEXT perspective giving the NEXT NEEDS of the direction in play. I loathe past posting. My work and pricing is given in advance. Subscription friends have been encouraged to ask questions. When I am flat out wrong I say so as today’s commentary points out about the intraday Time facet.

I have been writing this commentary since 2003. It was for a small coterie of internet friends and my partner in England (so we could cover the market 20 hours per day). From Andrews to Wychoff I have studied many of the masters exhaustively. The small coterie I mentioned has some of the best cycle, demark, and other work I have seen on the internet. My record is documented from 2005 to 2010 at Avid Trader. A wonderful gentleman Monroe B. from NJ has filed every commentary since 2008. My conceptual work prior to 2005 has been lost to a server chageover and death of a friend. Lastly, why the low price of 29$ per month? Reason 1: I never wanted to or intended to sell my work. I have been asked many times over the years to think about doing a blog or paid site. When Danny asked a few months ago I was very reticent and finally caved in as long as it meant nothing more than hitting a send button to MTS and no more work than I do already. My work is not for the lazy, takes some effort to learn. For this you learn about FAIR VALUE, the type of day you are odds on going to witness, specific price known as spots, range protections, trend values (and some trick trades associated with them). You will read WHAT NEXT and WHERE YOU ARE NOW. I still put in 2.5 hours nightly and about 5-8 hours every weekend. You will learn to extract the prices. What you will not get is fish thrown in your lap so to spean but you will become better fishermen. It will take you about 3 months to get the hang of it .The glossary is your best friend but YOU have to scroll charts and work.Here are todays’ NUMBAHS
FV -8.28 NUMBAHS S4 07/01/2015 SEPT. 2015 contract

DAILY WEEKLY
PIVOT 2056.3 2101.2

S1 2045.6 20081.0

S2 2036.8 2066.4

R1 2065.1 2115.8

R2 2075.8 2136.0

MAX H 2084.6 2150.6

MAX L 2026.1 2046.2
Range Projections

2041.2-2060.7 Primary 2073.8-2108.6

2051.0-2070.5 Alternate 2091.1-2125.9

TVS
2058.0 High 2120.7
2047.8 LOW 2046.2

TWO DAY
2067.5-2071.1 HIGH
2043.3-2047.0 LOW

OPG 2067.0 2115.0
H 2082.0 2121.3
L 2047.5 2086.5
C 2050.2 2095.7

You have to part with a 1.4$ per day to get the commentary -roflol.


In Asia 9 out of 11 markets closed higher, and in Europe 9 out of 11 markets are trading higher this morning. Today’s economic calendar includes: Gallup U.S Job Creation Index, Motor Vehicle Sales, MBA Mortgage Applications, Challenger job cut reports, ADP employment report, Gallup US Payroll to Population, PMI Manufacturing Index, ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending, and EIA Petroleum Status report.

Our View: The ES is up sharply this morning. Everyone is short and the 4th of July holiday is upon us. I warned about the end of the quarter selling, and now I am warning about a big short covering rally which could occur going into, and after, the holiday. The ES has to fill the 2087-2088 gap, I’m looking to buy cheap S&P calls (Lotto option tickets). There are stops to run to the upside…

“Down and Out in Beverly Hills for the Greeks”

• In Asia 9 of 11 markets closed higher: Shanghai Comp. -5.23%, Hang Seng 1.09%, Nikkei 0.46%

• In Europe 9 out of 11 markets are trading higher: DAX 1.93%, FTSE 1.28%, MICEX -0.1%, GD.AT –% at 7:00 am CT

• Fair Value: S&P -8.26, Dow -93.45, Nasdaq -9.20

• Total Volume: 2.4mill ESU and 9.7k SPU traded

• Economic calendar: Gallup U.S Job Creation Index, Motor Vehicle Sales, MBA Mortgage Applications, Challenger job cut reports, ADP employment report, Gallup US Payroll to Population, PMI Manufacturing Index, ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending, EIA Petroleum Status report.

• E-mini S&P 5002060.25-8.50 - -0.41%

• Crude

• Shanghai Composite

• Hang Seng25236.28-827.83 - -3.18%

• Nikkei 22520112.12-427.67 - -2.08%

• DAX10936.35-122.04 - -1.10%

• FTSE 1006549.01-36.77 - -0.56%

• Euro1.1047