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USDA trade analysts are expecting a $12 billion year-over-year decline in U.S. ag exports in FY 2015, mainly due to the strong U.S. dollar.
The agency forecasts a $12 billion decline from FY 2014, from $152.5 billion to $140.5 billion.
"Movements in exchange rates are a leading factor explaining movements in U.S. exports, since they are a key determinant of the relative price of U.S. agricultural products in global markets," reports the USDA’s Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service.
The export value of grains and feeds are predicted to fall by nearly $6 billion. Oilseed exports are expected to decline nearly $4 billion, and livestock, poultry and dairy are expected to drop by $2.5 billion.
If realized, FY 2015 would be the lowest level of
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exports since FY 2012.
U.S. imports of ag products are forecast to yield a record $117 billion this fiscal year, an increase of $7.8 billion over FY 2014.
Appreciation of the dollar has accelerated significantly in the largest U.S. agricultural export markets, reflecting the relatively strong and stable U.S. economy. The dollar is expected to appreciate almost 25 percent against the euro, USDA reported in its most recent Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade.
While long-term growth in ag exports is largely driven by growth in foreign income, changes in exchange rates are primary factors determining year-to-year variations in exports, according to the ERS.
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