There’s nothing wrong with overachieving — it just means you’re working really hard to attain something many believed you couldn’t. The challenge, however, is making sure you don’t fall back to those previous expectations.
After eight starts, Shelby Miller is 5-1 with a 1.33 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 43 strikeouts. Not bad for the 69th ranked pitcher entering the season, right?
As surprising as his start has been, Miller is a prime candidate to suffer some regression. He is stranding runners at a rate of nearly 90 percent, opposing hitters have a batting average on balls in play (BaBIP) of .183 and has a fielding independent pitching (FIP, which adjusts ERA based on league-average fielding) of 3.25, all of which suggests he has benefited from a lot of luck (he should have been playing the lottery).
These numbers, along with a low strikeout rate (7.2 per nine innings), suggest Miller is vastly overachieving and will return to earth sooner or later. Though he will remain a solid rotation option, there is no better time to sell high on Miller than now.
The Pirates’ A.J. Burnett is another who is pitching out of his mind, winning his past three starts and not allowing more than two runs in any of his eight starts. Burnett’s FIP (3.07), career ERA (3.99) and reduced strikeout numbers (7.4 per nine inning, his lowest mark since 2010) indicate he will not sustain his current pace. Roto Files believes he will remain a viable starter.
Brandon Belt is off to a solid start (.305, three homers, 14 RBIs) for the Giants, but his sky-high .418 BaBIP (he has a career .338 BaBIP) and career .271 batting average make him a prime for a setback.
Don’t be fooled by Nick Martinez’s 1.88 ERA, 1.25 WHIP or perfect 3-0 record. His FIP (3.67) and weak strikeout rate (4.69 per nine innings, the 11th lowest out of qualifying starting pitchers) indicate his numbers are severely inflated. In his brief career, the 24-year-old is 8-12 with a 3.87 ERA and 4.62 FIP. There’s a reason he is available in so many leagues: He’s not this good.
Based on Michael Wacha’s elevated FIP (3.76) and his low strikeout total (5.5 per nine innings), the Cardinals hurler’s sterling start (6-0, 2.13 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) is bound to take a hit.
Amazingly, A’s infielder Brett Lawrie has stayed healthy and been a serviceable fantasy player thus far, hitting .280 with two homers and 16 RBIs. But, there are some downfalls: He had walked just six times (3.6 percent of the time) and had struck out 46 times (26.2 percent of the time) in 161 at-bats heading into Friday. His .375 BaBIP, which is much higher than his career .300 BaBIP, suggests he will regress a bit.
Big hits
Brandon Crawford, SS, Giants
Has raised his batting average from .225 to .299 by going 25-for-69 (.362) with two homers and 17 RBIs this month. Is available in more than 30 percent of ESPN and Yahoo leagues.
Yunel Escobar, SS, Nationals
Enjoying a solid season (.324, two homers, 14 RBIs) with Anthony Rendon out. Was the second-most added shortstop behind Crawford.
Avisail Garcia, OF, White Sox
He is hitting .329 with three homers and 14 RBIs this month, yet is widely available. Need help in the outfield? He’s an option.
Jered Weaver, SP, Angels
After going 0-4 in his first six starts, Weaver has gone 3-0 with a 1.54 ERA and a .160 opponents batting average in his last three starts.
Big whiffs
Jake Marisnick, OF, Astros
After a stellar showing in April (.379, two homers, 10 RBIs, eight stolen bases), Marisnick is 13-for-64 (.203) in May with 20 strikeouts, one homer, six RBIs and just one stolen base.
Ian Kennedy, SP, Padres
After winning his first two starts this month, Kennedy has returned to his losing ways. He is 0-2 with a 10.24 ERA over his last two starts.
Mat Latos, SP, Marlins
Third most dropped non-injured starter after going 0-1 with an 11.88 ERA and .385 opponents batting average in his last two starts.
Anthony DeSclafani, SP, Reds
Has lost four of his past five outings, going 0-4 with a 6.38 ERA, a .302 opponent batting average and just 18 strikeouts.
Quick hits
Delino DeShields Jr. was the most added player in ESPN leagues, hitting .308 with eight RBIs, 16 runs scored and nine stolen bases this month. Let’s hope he doesn’t lose playing time with the return of Josh Hamilton this week.
Have you noticed James Paxton? Over his past five starts, the 26-year-old lefty is 2-1 with a 1.38 ERA, 25 strikeouts and a .183 opponents batting average. Keep an eye on him. He is owned in just 35 percent of ESPN leagues and 50 percent of Yahoo leagues.
After earning wins in six of his first seven starts, Bartolo Colon is 0-2 with a 12.54 ERA over his last two starts. That’s what we call pleasantly slump.
Bryce Harper is 25-for-62 (.403) with 11 homers, 24 RBIs, two stolen bases, 20 runs scored and 16 walks for the month. Imagine what his numbers will be like when he hits puberty (he’s young, folks).
Team Name of the Week
The Musial Suspects — Submitted by Steve Babyak