The draws for the 2015 French Open came out today and it’s hard to determine who got the worse draw: Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic. But they’re not the only ones with a tough route to the semifinals, with Serena Williams having a potential third-round date with Victoria Azarenka, Serena’s older sis getting Sloane Stephens in the first, as well as Maria Sharapova drawing the dangerous Kaia Kanepi in her opening match. What’s going to happen in Paris? FTW previews and predicts the men’s tournament below. (See the women’s preview here.)

1. This is the most meaningful tournament the ATP has seen in decades.

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We all know about the struggles of Rafael Nadal and how this portends a Paris defeat, particularly with his ridiculous draw. But what this post presupposes is, what if he’s not? (Struggling, that is.) Nadal will turn 29 in about a week. Playing until Sunday in every European clay-court event was fine when he was 25, but is basically an invitation for exhaustion now. (It’s important for seeding purposes, for which Nadal only has himself to blame). But is he setting the stage for his greatest trick yet in what should be the biggest Grand Slam in modern times?

Consider the possibilities of the tennis landscape in 17 days:

Nadal wins — That’s a mind-boggling 10 French Open titles and a 73-1 record at Roland Garros, which looks like the score when the U.S. women’s hockey team plays Kazakhstan. It’d put him at 15 Grad Slams, just two behind Federer, who has been a stationary target for nearly three years. If Nadal gets this, Federer is in play and, with him, the title of greatest of all time.

Djokovic wins — Nadal’s reign is ended and he possibly falls to an unfathomable double-digit ranking. Suddenly, it’s hard to see the declining Spaniard getting enough majors to top Federer, especially given his utter failures at Wimbledon and his struggles on hard courts. Suddenly, Djokovic has nine majors and has an outside chance to get the first Grand Slam in almost 50 years. That would put him at 11 overall, within easy striking distance of Sampras/Nadal at 14 and with an outside chance to catch Federer at 17.

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Federer wins — In the most improbable win of his career, Federer gets Slam No. 18 and basically puts his record out of reach for the current generation of players (and perhaps future ones too). No one — no one — ever expected Federer to compete in a French Open again, but with his draw, it’s a distinct possibility.

Murray wins — Suddenly, Murray is 3/4th of the way to the career Slam, just like Djokovic and will be a deserving member of the Big Four once again.

Somebody else wins — It’d be the third time in the past six Slams an “outsider” has held a major trophy (Stan Wawrinka at ’14 Australian, Marin Cilic at ’14 U.S. Open and this). So many scenarios are on the table, each of which could have a major effect on the question tennis fans love to debate: Who’s the G.O.A.T? I love it.

2. Nadal and Djokovic getting paired in the same quarter is bad luck brought upon by cowardly tournament officials.

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When a player has won nine titles in the 10 times he’s played at Roland Garros, he deserves some special dispensation for his troubles, not a No. 6 seed and the 25% chance of seeing the world’s greatest player in the quarterfinals. But, in a way, the draw is worse for Djokovic. He’s the one who earned an easier draw, but the bad luck struck and now he’s stuck. (Rhyming unintentional; I apoligize.) Everybody expects him to win, which is a crazy proposition given his 42-10 record at Roland Garros, compared to the 66-1 mark for Nadal. But Nadal’s streak was always going to end some day. This year is seen as Djokovic’s best shot of winning in Paris and capping his career Grand Slam. And despite Nadal’s struggles, the best-of-five format and his history are boons to the Spaniard, who is entering Roland Garros with his worst clay record ever. Still, Nadal, for once, isn’t the favorite. How can that be a bad thing?

Then there’s this: The winner of this match will likely to have to play Andy Murray in the semifinals and then, if the 33-year-old can turn back time and beat players he always has dispatched in the past, Roger Federer in the final. A great injustice was done on Friday and the whole sport of tennis should be furious. The two best clay-court players in the world should not be playing in the quarterfinals and I’ll be blue in the face about it, right up until Nadal gets upset by Nicolas Almagro in the second round.

3. Speaking of Federer, he looks improbably good to make his sixth French Open final.

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Federer hasn’t been the beneficiary of great draws in recent majors. And, to be fair, he hasn’t advanced far enough in some for that to even matter. But he couldn’t have gotten a better French Open run if he’d drawn it up himself. Part of that is his own doing: by being No. 2, Federer ensured he couldn’t see Djokovic until the final. But most is dumb luck. Nadal isn’t just out of Federer’s quarter, he’s in Djokovic’s. Andy Murray is on that half of the draw too. That leaves Stan Wawrinka and Tomas Berdych, players he has a 30-8 record against lifetime and an 8-2 mark on clay. It’s been assumed that if Federer were ever to win another Grand Slam final, it’d be at Wimbledon or, with the right draw, maybe the U.S. Open. But with a draw like this and the fact that either Djokovic or Nadal might have to follow up their sure-to-be marathon quarterfinal with a semifinal date with Andy Murray, it’s not unthinkable that Federer could be holding his second Coupe de Mousquetaires in two weeks time.

4. You won’t believe this Djokovic-Nadal stat.

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We’ll end where we started. The two men have played more matches than any twosome of the Open era. But the last time they played before the semifinal of a major was in 2006, 46 matches ago, in their first meeting.

5. Any dark-horses?

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If anyone except Djokovic, Nadal or Murray comes out of the top half of the draw, it’ll be the biggest Grand Slam upset since Robin Soderling stunned Nadal in 2009. The bottom is far more wide-open. Though Stan Wawrinka, a major championship winner, is hardly a dark horse, he could make a deep run, as could Kei Nishikori.

6. So, what ya got?

Men’s semifinals

Andy Murray d. Novak Djokovic

Roger Federer d. Tomas Berdych

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Though it seems far too simple to buy into the “Nadal is done” narrative, Djokovic has been playing so well, it’s hard to believe he’ll lose in a best-of-five match, particularly when he should have beat Nadal two years ago, back when Nadal was near the top of his game. Of course, it’s silly to count out Nadal, not with his 66-1 lifetime record and record nine titles. So if Djokovic is going to handle Nadal, why do we have him losing to Murray? Post-Nadal fatigue, both physically and mentally. Robin Soderling, the only man to beat Nadal at Roland Garros rode that upset all the way to the 2009 final, but that was a “house money” match for Soderling. Give Murray’s improvement, I like the upset. Then it’s Federer’s turn to shock us one more time.

Men’s final

Roger Federer d. Andy Murray

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