Rangers won't survive against Lightning if stars don't produce
No grading on a curve is done during the NHL playoffs. No trophy is awarded to those who tried hard. No parades are organized for those teams that put up the good fight.
This is a pass-fail course where winners graduate to the next round and losers flunk out.
It isn't enough for the New York Rangers' top players to be working hard against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Eastern Conference final. What the Rangers need in Game 4 is production from those players. They trail the series 2-1.
With the Lightning sitting with five of their best forwards ranked among the NHL's top eight playoff scorers, the Rangers can't afford to have 42-goal scorer Rick Nash sitting without a point in this series.
The Rangers won't advance without goaltender Henrik Lundqvist bringing less than his normal form of excellence.
They can't afford to have Martin St. Louis, now a third-liner, without a goal in the playoffs, or speedy Carl Hagelin (minus-4 over the past two games) being less productive than he was a year ago. They need Chris Kreider to have more than two shots on goal over the past four games. They need defensemen Dan Girardi and Marc Staal to be more effective than they have been. Girardi and Staal are minus players in this series, and their Corsi ratings, which measures puck possession, are the Rangers' lowest among defensemen in the postseason, both below 50%.
With 12 goals scored in two games, the Lightning's offensive might has taken over this series, and the Rangers have to respond in kind or go home soon.
It's not good enough to work hard against the Lightning. Their offense is too talented, too dangerous. You are forced to put up numbers to beat them.
The Nash saga is the Rangers' greatest frustration because it is an ongoing story line. He has scored 89 goals in 188 regular-season games for the Rangers. His playoff results: six goals in 52 games.
Everyone understands that scoring is more difficult in the postseason. Nash's lack of productivity goes well beyond that reality.
Tampa Bay's top scorers are destroying the Rangers' championship aspirations, and the Rangers need Nash to find the net. It's that simple.
It would also help the Rangers if St. Louis could show why he has scored more than 400 regular season and playoff goals in the NHL.
With less than a month to go before his 40th birthday, you can start to see that age may be catching up to a player who has had a remarkable career.
You can point out that the Rangers put up five goals in Game 3 as a sign that they can trade goals with the Lightning, but two of those goals came from defensemen and two others came from youngster Jesper Fast. Derick Brassard was the only other top-six forward to score. The rest of the forwards were too quiet.
By contrast, all six of Tampa Bay's goals came from their top-six forwards. The Lightning's top-six forwards own this series right now.
That brings us to Lundqvist, who has given up 12 goals in 66 shots over the past two games. King Henrik has played like a commoner against the Lightning. The lengthy shot by Nikita Kucherov that beat him overtime in Game 3 is one he normally stops.
Counting the regular season, the Lightning have defeated Lundqvist five times this season. They have scored 26 goals against Lundqvist in those five wins.
He has admitted he needs to be better. But all of the Rangers' top players need to be better. The Rangers looked like the NHL's best team for much of the second half of the season. They have to perform like that again if they want to survive this series.
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