BALTIMORE -- The Maryland Jockey Club once suspended racing because of the war -- the Revolutionary War. Maryland racing, in other words, has a long history, and much of it involves Pimlico. When horses began racing here in 1870, Ulysses S. Grant lived nearby, in the White House.
Twice burned down and twice rebuilt, Pimlico has witnessed epochal events. And at 145, the grizzled, old racetrack continues to nurture its traditions -- the Alibi Breakfast, the painting of the weather vane cupola, the Woodlawn Vase -- but shows its age. The grandstand -- modernized in the 1960s -- is peeling and moldering, its wooden floors wrinkling and cracking. But with abiding affection, Pimlico is still called "Old Hilltop," even though its eponymous infield hill was leveled in 1938, the year Seabiscuit defeated War Admiral here in one of the most famous of match races.
Pimlico is rather like the sport itself. Anachronistic in some ways and ramshackle in others, it recalls a rich history and is still capable of producing gloriously defining moments of profound beauty and competition.
Bob Baffert seems extremely comfortable here, as, of course, he should. So far, his Triple Crown has been a bottle of Karo Syrup. And he clearly doesn't foresee anything or anybody changing that anytime soon.
Thursday morning, the Hall of Fame trainer strolled nonchalantly from the stakes barn to the racetrack to watch his two Preakness horses gallop: American Pharoah and Dortmund. And afterward, with friends and media, he joked about his Quarter Horse days, his brief riding career and the horse that set a track record, albeit on the farm. When Baffert hit his best stride with a string of impersonations, somebody suggested he should make the rounds of late-night television shows. Laughing at some of his own tales, he enjoyed the morning at Pimlico, a fact that's worth conveying simply because Baffert's mood generally foreshadows his horses' performances.
Baffert has become one of the most successful trainers in the history of the sport (sixth all-time, with his horses earning more than $220 million) largely because of his uncanny perception. He reads horses, understands their messages. And Thursday morning, during their first gallops over the Pimlico surface, American Pharoah and Dortmund sent more messages than Western Union.
"I was really happy with the way they went," Baffert said, all joking aside. "They looked healthy and bright, in top condition. There is no regressing there. It looks like they are coming up to another big race. I felt really good about it today. ... I'm hoping for one-two."
He even suggested that they'll run better in the Preakness than they did in the Kentucky Derby, where American Pharoah won by a length and Dortmund finished third, three back. And if that's indeed what happens, then by Saturday night the sport will be looking at the possibility of its 12th Triple Crown winner.
"Now he's ready," Baffert said about American Pharoah, pointing out that the colt is still lightly raced, with only six starts in his career, and that the Derby was the first time he ever found himself in a fight.
"That was a good, stiff, hard race for him," Baffert said about the Derby. "And it looks like he handled it pretty well. He's a very exciting horse to watch [with] the way he moves over the track. He just floats."
Seven horses will try, but none of them can beat American Pharoah in the Preakness. Quite simply, he's faster. Even with what Baffert said wasn't his "super A-game," American Pharoah proved himself clearly superior at Churchill Downs. His jockey, Victor Espinoza, was so confident that he simply kept the colt away from traffic and out of trouble, even though that meant racing wide and giving up precious lengths. American Pharoah actually ran 3½ lengths farther than the Derby runner-up, Firing Line, and 7½ lengths farther than Dortmund, who saved ground, according to Trakus.
No, this is a solid group of 3-year-olds, and Firing Line, who didn't switch strides in the stretch at Churchill, could very well improve, too, but American Pharoah could be something more. These horses can't outrun him.
But to stand here in the grandstand at Pimlico, where so many memories reside, is to recall one of the most enduring lessons distilled from history: Circumstances can defeat any horse, even a Kentucky Derby winner in the Preakness. And circumstances can beat American Pharoah.
Could his strong gallop here Thursday be misleading? Could he regress and give a shockingly poor effort, as Decidedly did in 1962 and Strike The Gold in 1991, finishing up the track just two weeks after their victories at Churchill Downs? The weather handicappers insist rain will fall here sometime Saturday. American Pharoah romped through the muddy Rebel Stakes in Arkansas, but could he be unable to handle Maryland's version of goo? An "off" track probably beat Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus here in 2000, when he finished nearly four lengths behind Red Bullet; in 1972, Kentucky Derby winner Riva Ridge slipped and slid through Pimlico's slop before finishing fourth behind Bee Bee Bee. Or could a hot pace undo the Derby winner? In 1976, Kentucky Derby winner Bold Forbes incinerated his Preakness chances in a furnace of his own making and finished four lengths behind the upset winner, Elocutionist. And much like Bold Forbes, but eight years later, Swale also lost the Triple Crown in a hot-pace crucible here at Pimlico. Could American Pharoah do the same from his inside post position if challenged early by Mr. Z or Firing Line?
Yes, circumstances can beat them all. Thirteen odds-on favorites (less than even-money) have lost in this middle gem of the Triple Crown, and many of them had won the Derby.
Baffert knows the history that permeates this hoary, old racetrack and this venerable race. And so after the stroll and the joking, and despite his bonhomie and his consuming comfort that generally suggests the imminence of an outstanding effort, at the end of the morning, he said, "This race is not a gimme."
In other words, he seemed to say, he's never going to get too comfortable.