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Super 8 Baseball Projection, Version 1.0

Heady play on the basepath by players such as Christian Morales allowed Peabody to manufacture enough runs to stay ahead. Brendan C. Hall/ESPNBoston.com

Each week in May, ESPNBoston.com will be releasing its projections for the field of eight in the MIAA Division 1A Tournament, right up to the official selection at the end of the month. First-round home games for the Super 8 commence on June 3.

At the halfway point of the 2015 season, here is my first projection of the eight-team field. Be sure to check back next week for "Version 2.0".

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1. PEABODY

Record: 10-0

ESPNBoston Rank: 1

League: Northeastern Conference

District: Division 1 North

Key Wins: St. John’s Prep (5-2), Xaverian (4-3), Danvers (4-0), Beverly (6-1), Marblehead (6-1)

Key Losses: None

Last 5 Games: 5-0

Record vs. Catholic Conference: 2-0

Record vs. Division 1: 2-0

Players to Watch: Matt Correale, Sr. LHP; Mike Petrosino, Sr. 1B; Christian Morales, Sr. 2B; Mike Raymond, Sr. RHP, Ryan Collins, Sr. SS; David Hoar, Sr. UTIL; Matt Gonick, Sr. RF

Outlook: The Tanners came into the spring with a chip on their shoulder, perhaps best demonstrated by the fiery Correale, and have thus far set themselves up for a nice payoff in a month’s time. By knocking off Catholic Conference stalwarts St. John’s Prep and Xaverian inside of six days during April vacation week, the Tanners made the loudest statement of the first half. On paper, they don’t appear to have the star hitting power of a Prep, or the pitching depth of a Bridgewater-Raynham. But with an aggressive approach to the basepaths, they’ve been able to apply an uncomfortable amount of pressure on even the best infields around the Bay State. If they can beat Malden Catholic on May 14, that will make them 3-0 against the Catholic Conference this year, and almost assure them a home seed in the Super 8.

2. ST. JOHN'S PREP

Record: 9-2

ESPNBoston Rank: 2

League: Catholic Conference

District: Division 1 North

Key Wins: BC High (3-0, 5-0), Xaverian (4-0), Catholic Memorial (8-6, 8 inn.), Newton North (5-0), St. Peter-Marian (15-1), Chelmsford (9-6), Malden Catholic (3-1)

Key Losses: St. John’s (Shrewsbury) (3-1), Peabody (5-2)

Last 5 Games: 3-2

Record vs. Catholic Conference: 5-0

Record vs. Division 1: 9-2

Players to Watch: Keith Leavitt, Sr. OF; Nick Latham, Jr. 1B; Jacob Yish, Jr. 3B; Ted McNamara, Sr. INF; Justin Foley, Sr. RHP; Justin Kerhulas, Sr. RHP; Dan Trulli, Sr. SS; Ryan Spurr, Sr. 2B

Outlook: Prep came into the spring as the No. 1 team in our statewide poll, mostly due to the potent top of their hitting order. But while Penn State commit Keith Leavitt (.321, 6 RBI) and Boston College commits Nick Latham (7 stolen bases) and Jacob Yish (.351/.405/.541, 6 RBI) have proven their hype, this has once again been a season of revelation for the Eagles. Last spring, future Davidson walk-on Evan Roberts came out of nowhere to dominate on the mound and capture Catholic Conference MVP honors. This spring, unsigned senior Ted McNamara (.371/.436/.657, 7 RBI) leads the team in every major hitting category, while Foley (4-0, 0.28 ERA, 0.68 WHIP) and Kerhulas (2-1, 0.69 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) have pounded to contact for favorable results in the season’s first half. Barring an epic collapse in the second half of the season, the Eagles should be able to sew up a home seed nicely -- especially if they can win the state’s most competitive league outright for a second-straight year.

3. XAVERIAN

Record: 8-2

ESPNBoston Rank: 3

League: Catholic Conference

District: Division 1 South

Key Wins: Silver Lake (14-4, 5 inn.), Malden Catholic (9-8, 10 inn.), St. John’s (Shrewsbury) (2-1), Catholic Memorial (4-3), Newton North (1-0), Norwood (2-0)

Key Losses: St. John’s Prep (4-0), Peabody (4-3)

Last 5 Games: 5-0

Record vs. Catholic Conference: 2-1

Record vs. Division 1: 7-2

Players to Watch: Jake Farrell, Sr. OF; Noah Sorrento, Sr. OF; Manny Peguero, Jr. RHP; Blake DeCarr, Jr. RHP; Nick Sette, Jr. 2B; Troy Shepherd, Jr. 3B; Trevor McQuade, Sr. LF; Kevin Dolan, Sr. RHP

Outlook: Some thought the Hawks, with a promising core of juniors, might still be a year away from making noise. But the future is now, at least so far, and they have found ways to win in all sorts of conditions. They opened the season spotting Silver Lake a 3-0 second-inning lead, only to mercy-rule them in five innings. They survived a sudden Malden Catholic onslaught in 10 innings. And in their most dramatic showing yet, rising star DeCarr smacked a game-winning three-run double over Catholic Memorial with the Hawks down to their last out -- one day after shutting down then-No. 1 St. John’s of Shrewsbury for a comeback 2-1 win. The way that CM, MC and BC High have begun to tail off, Xaverian is the only team that can catch Prep right now in the Catholic Conference race. If they can at least keep pace with their bitter rivals, they’re looking pretty good for a home seed.

4. BRIDGEWATER-RAYNHAM

Record: 8-1

ESPNBoston Rank: 4

League: Old Colony League

District: Division 1 South

Key Wins: Plymouth North (5-2), Hingham (6-2), Barnstable (2-0), Acton-Boxborough (9-0)

Key Losses: Lincoln-Sudbury (5-4)

Last 5 Games: 4-1

Record vs. Catholic Conference: 0-0

Record vs. Division 1: 3-1

Players to Watch: Jack Connolly, Sr. RHP; Andrew Noviello, Sr. C/INF; Kyle Horsman, Sr. SS; Jon Livolsi, Sr. 3B; Cory Wasylow, Sr. OF; Mike Manning, Jr. LHP/OF; P.J. Walsh, Jr. RHP; Colin Trahon, Soph. OF

Outlook: Some will question their schedule strength, but the Trojans may have simmered some of those flames with their 9-0 thrashing of A-B, the Dual County League’s front-runner, on Thursday. After a sluggish start, things seem to be rounding into shape overall. Connolly (3-0, 27 K’s, 21 IP, 0.50 ERA) has been the staff ace everyone expected, but the emergence of Manning (3-0, 28 K’s, 14 IP, 0.82 ERA) has been key, and if Walsh -- who dazzled in his varsity debut last month, striking out 9 -- continues to progress the Trojans will be one of the deepest staffs in this field. Meanwhile at the plate, Manning (.421 BA, .542 OBP) has been terrific, while MLB Draft hopeful Andrew Noviello continues to do absurd things like this.

5. ST. JOHN'S OF SHREWSBURY

Record: 8-2

ESPNBoston Rank: 5

League: Central Mass. Conference

District: Division 1 Central

Key Wins: St. John’s Prep (3-1), Springfield Cathedral (4-3, 8 inn.), Algonquin (7-1), Leominster (5-2)

Key Losses: Xaverian (2-1), Wachusett (9-0)

Last 5 Games: 3-2

Record vs. Catholic Conference: 1-1

Record vs. Division 1: 8-2

Players to Watch: Danny Barlok, Sr. RHP; Kevin Quinlivan, Sr. OF; Jake Rosen, Jr. SS; Ian Seymour, Soph. LHP; Jared Wetherbee, Jr. LHP; Sam Shaw, Jr. OF; Jack Gardner, Soph. C/3B; Craig Corliss, Jr. 1B/3B; Shane Combs, Sr. RHP

Outlook: Barlok (0.48 ERA), the staff ace and Holy Cross commit, has been good as advertised so far, while Wetherbee and Seymour have emerged as great second and third options. Meanwhile Combs, a returning All-State First Teamer and Notre Dame signee, finally made his debut on Thursday against Wachusett. He gave up one run in 4.1 innings before things fell apart in a 9-0 loss to their rivals, which has brought the Pioneers to this position. There’s enough flexibility on the Pioneers’ schedule that, as long as they take care of business, they’ll remain firmly in the hunt. If they can sweep the season series with St. John’s Prep on May 16, for instance, that will be a big highlight for the resume.

6. BRAINTREE

Record: 5-1

ESPNBoston Rank: 6

League: Bay State Conference

District: Division 1 South

Key Wins: Silver Lake (11-3), Wellesley (11-3)

Key Losses: BC High (8-6)

Last 5 Games: 4-1

Record vs. Catholic Conference: 0-1

Record vs. Division 1: 3-1

Players to Watch: Connor Columbus, Sr. 3B; Bobby McNiff, Sr. RHP; Scott Creedon, Jr. RHP; Cal Berman, Sr. 1B; Anthony Venuti, Sr. 2B; Kevin Troy, Sr. OF; Colin Rios, Sr. C; Erik MacDonald, Jr. OF

Outlook: The Wamps have a lot of catching up to do after opening their season on April 22, but so far the bats have looked sharp. Only in the BC High loss have they failed to plate at least nine runs, outscoring their opposition a combined 58-17 in their first six games. Granted, their six opponents so far are a combined 15-28, so some of those lopsided scores ought to be expected. McNiff has been brilliant, but the emergence of Creedon (2-0, 16 K's in 13 IP) as a solid No. 2 is perhaps most encouraging. They’ll get their truest test of the year this Friday when defending Super 8 champ Newton North comes to visit.

7. WEST SPRINGFIELD

Record: 8-1

ESPNBoston Rank: 7

League: Valley Wheel

District: Division 1 West

Key Wins: Westfield (1-0), Agawam (9-1), Springfield Central (8-6), Chicopee (7-0)

Key Losses: Holyoke (4-0)

Last 5 Games: 4-1

Record vs. Catholic Conference: 0-0

Record vs. Division 1: 7-1

Players to Watch: Conor Moriarty, Jr. SS; Jared Costa, Sr. RF; Nick Dombkowski, Soph. LHP; Andre Marrero, Sr. CF; Anthony Costa, Jr. LF; Zach Baker, Jr. C; Brendan Stenwick, Jr. 3B/RHP

Outlook: Friday night’s 1-0 win over Westfield, paced by a monster solo shot from UConn-bound leadoff hitter Moriarty (.545/.706/.955, 9 RBI) and a gem from Dombkowski (12 K’s, 0 ER, CG), was the Terriers’ season. Westfield has proven capable of competing, as shown in their 2-0 loss to Billerica last month, and the West Siders are the clear lead dog in the West this year. Best-case scenario is the Terriers win out the rest of their schedule, but any more than three or four losses the rest of the way could spell danger. Bottom line, this is a team talented enough to win games in the Super 8, but they’re going to have to hope the mostly Eastern Mass.-rooted selection committee agrees.

8. NEWTON NORTH

Record: 5-2

ESPNBoston Rank: 8

League: Bay State Conference

District: Division 1 North

Key Wins: Natick (7-0), Catholic Memorial (5-3)

Key Losses: St. John’s Prep (5-0), Xaverian (1-0)

Last 5 Games: 4-1

Record vs. Catholic Conference: 1-2

Record vs. Division 1: 5-2

Players to Watch: Theo Resnick, Sr. RHP; Ben Porter, Sr. OF; Christian Cox, Sr. SS; Michael Banks, Soph. RHP; Mike Gately, Jr. INF; Kane Medina, Jr. INF; Thomas Joyce, Jr. OF

Outlook: Tigers have made a solid case thus far for inclusion in the Super 8. But just like last year, when they stormed the field to win the inaugural tournament, they’re going to have to get in through the back door. North graduated a number of quality arms from last year’s run, none bigger than Super 8 MVP Dylan Sbordone and current Stony Brook reliever Teddy Rodliff, but Resnick has proven very capable at the front of the rotation. It’s going to be up to the North batters, who are traditionally some of the best small-ballers around, to keep producing like they have in the first half. Friday’s battle with Braintree will tell us a lot more about what kind of representation the Bay State Conference will get this year.