On Friday at about 5:45 pm, 14 fillies will line up to run for the lilies in the Grade I, $1 million Longines Kentucky Oaks. Horse racing is the only sport in the U.S. on which you can bet legally online, and even a $2 win bet makes watching the race more exciting, so our stable of handicappers returns to share their thoughts and strategies.
Two options for wagering from home are NYRA Rewards (for New York and Connecticut residents) and TwinSpires, both of which offer wagering from mobile devices. A third, DerbyJackpot, offers on-line wagering options for those who prefer their gambling to be more akin to playing a game than the result of hours of handicapping; an app was launched last month.
Hello Race Fans! (to which I contribute) provides an introduction to various wagers, which is an excellent resource if any of the handicappers’ terminology is unfamiliar, and here’s a look at all 14 Oaks contenders.
Television coverage from Churchill Downs begins at 12:30 pm and will include seven races, leading up to the Oaks, with a post time of 5:49 pm.
Good luck and safe trips to all the contenders, and happy wagering.
Brian Nadeau, handicapper at Horseplayer Now and Brooklyn Backstretch: This edition of the Oaks doesn't have the longshot appeal that most do, so I'll stick to the proven runners and look for #13 Birdatthewire to mow them all down in the lane, like she did in winning the Grade II Gulfstream Park Oaks last time. She'll be in the 6-1 range, so I'll key her on top in the exactas over #7 Lovely Maria and #8 I'm a Chatterbox, while using her in the Oaks/Derby double with Frosted and American Pharoah.
Michelle McSweeney, 7th place finisher at 2013 Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge, assistant trainer: The most unpredictable class of racehorses is the three-year old-filly division. That's why the form of I'm a Chatterbox is so impressive. She has run consistently high Beyer Speed Figures while using whichever running style suits her situation. The bet here is I'm a Chatterbox over Birdatthewire (a closer with a win over the track), Sarah's Sis (game enough to take it to Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner and two-year-old champion filly Take Charge Brandi; she also gets Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens here), Oceanwave (great form and bred to love the distance), and Peace and War (will much improve second off the layoff if she draws in off the also-eligible list).
Seth Merrow, publisher of Equidaily.com and handicapper for Capitol OTB (for whom I work during the summer in Saratoga): It’s hard to ignore I'm a Chatterbox’s solid winter campaign at Fair Grounds in Louisiana, where she swept the three Kentucky Oaks prep races. Condo Commando has lost only once in six career starts, and her two wins this year have been impressive. Stellar Wind is lightly raced but clearly capable of taking this, and I’m also using Lovely Maria.
The wager: $5 win and place on I'm a Chatterbox. $2 exacta box with I’m a Chatterbox and Condo Commando. $1 exacta box with all four fillies, and a 50-cent trifecta box with all four.
Gabby Gaudet, racing analyst at Laurel Park and Pimlico Race Course, the home of the Preakness Stakes: Stellar Wind has been nothing short of exemplary since she first surfaced in my neck of the woods at Laurel Park late last year. She showed grit from the get-go when she slid up the rail after a troubled trip in her six-furlong debut, only to be beaten at the wire. She eventually moved westward to romp foes in the Santa Anita Oaks without turning a hair. She continually improves with distance and experience, but the key is that she is multidimensional. She’s proven that she can be effective on the lead, closing, breaking poorly, and squeezing through tight spaces, which is an ingredient that may be handy drawing post 12 of 14. Look for her to track behind speedster Condo Commando and proceed from there.
Top selections in order:
Stellar Wind, I’m a Chatterbox, Condo Commando, Puca
Ed DeRosa, director of marketing for Brisnet.com: One of the more popular angles when handicapping the Kentucky Derby is to determine which circuit had the strongest prep races and back the best horse from that circuit. You don’t hear about that as much for the Kentucky Oaks, but it’s the angle I’m taking this year in picking Birdatthewire to win this year’s blanket of lilies.
Birdatthewire raced at Gulfstream Park, which to my eye had the most depth of any division. Condo Commando and Stellar Wind both impressed in New York and California, respectively, but I don’t think they faced the tests that Birdatthewire has, and since she’ll be a longer price than either of the coastal fillies, she’s not only my pick to win but also the best bet in the race.
Birdatthewire is 6-to-1 on the morning line, and I would bet her across the board at anything better than 9-to-2. I’d also mix in Eskenformoney, another Florida-based filly who ran well against Birdatthewire all winter/spring. In for an ounce, in for a pound with these Florida fillies!
Who do YOU like in the Kentucky Oaks?
