Fear spreads as Burundi, Togo polls loom

After the dramatic elections in Nigeria and Sudan over the past three weeks, the African electoral calendar continues to unfold as the continent continues to march inexorably towards democratic governance and often elusive stability.

As Togo embarks on presidential elections next Saturday, there is ongoing intense focus on unfolding events in Burundi. Alarmingly, the latter country is widely viewed as a powder keg that may explode at any time, ushering in the political paroxysms that have over the decades become the country’s hallmark.

With senate, parliamentary and presidential polls fast approaching, there are clear signs that all is not well in Burundi, which has only known tenuous stability ever since 2006, when the country emerged from a brutal ethnicity-fuelled 13-year civil war.

The prolonged conflict resulted in an avalanche of refugees heading to neighbouring countries and left disturbing numbers of internally displaced persons. Unfortunately, the country is today still hamstrung by hardly veiled suspicions between competing political and ethnic factions.

Given that scenario, it seems unlikely that the country will finally be out of the woods any time soon. As the planned elections approach, the worrying situation in the country is further compounded by the fact that, like in Togo, there is a raging controversy in Burundi about exactly how many terms a president can run for.

THIRD TERM

Unlike Burundi, though, Togo abolished constitutional term limits in 2002, albeit amid great controversy. The move, however unpopular, paved the way for incumbent President Faure Gnassingbé to contest a third term, unlike the situations in many African countries, where presidential tenure is limited to two terms.

Togo, therefore, appears set to remain in the stranglehold of the Eyadema dynasty, whose roots were laid when a youthful Sergeant Etienne Eyadema overthrew the country’s first democratically elected president, Sylvanus Olympio, in 1963.

Later, as Lieutenant-Colonel, Eyadema again overthrew the government of Nicolas Grunitzky in a bloodless coup on January 13, 1967.

In total, the man who was later known as Gnassingbé Eyadema ruled Togo for nearly four decades, staying in power until his death in February 2005. A day after his death, his ‘ordained’ son, Faure Gnassingbé, was installed by the military to serve his deceased father’s remaining term.

The younger Gnassingbé however stepped down a month later following international pressure for an election, which he subsequently won with 60 per cent votes.

Smooth operator that he is, he appointed malleable opposition leader Edem Kodjo as prime minister and won another election in 2010.
As for next Saturday’s crucial presidential election, it was initially supposed to be held on April 15. The poll was, however, postponed for 10 days following queries about the legality of the existing electoral register.

All things being equal, over 3.5 million voters out of a population of six million are expected to cast their votes next Saturday. There have, however, been reports of voter indifference, coupled with a generally lacklustre opposition viewed as unlikely to constitute a credible challenge for the incumbent president.

As for the eagerly awaited Burundi presidential elections, a cloud of uncertainty hangs over them, amid alarming reports of mounting violence in the country. Expected to be preceded by senate and legislative elections slated for May 6, the presidential elections were originally expected to be held on June 21 and 27.

Whether the country’s electoral schedules will still be adhered to remains uncertain, however, given the frightful political events still unfolding in the country. Ahead of the planned series of polls, hordes of worried Burundians have already begun fleeing their country, fearing for their lives should the current violence escalate.

VIOLENT HISTORY

That déjà-vu scenario has unfortunately brought back memories of the country’s extremely violent history, including the fact that Burundi, like the neighbouring Rwanda, has been tainted by recurrent military coups and massacres that have often reached genocidal proportions.

As matters stand, then, few can confidently vouch that the past will not repeat itself, particularly given the raging controversy about whether incumbent Pierre Nkurunziza, an ethnic Hutu and former rebel, is entitled to run for a third term.

Nkurunziza and his allies however appear determined to ensure he does so, despite a constitutional provision— often challenged on technical grounds — that a president can legitimately serve for only two terms.

More frightfully, members of the Imbonerakure militia associated with the incumbent president’s ruling CNDD-FDD party have been repeatedly accused of being behind the current spate of violence in the country.

In the face of such claims, it is not surprising that opposition politicians and critics of the government say the Nkurunziza regime is systematically trying to sideline all perceived challengers prior to the elections through arrests and harassment.