Watching a lot of horse racing is research.
Here's what the weekend told us.
There has been a Blofeld sighting. But you had to look fast. Blofeld is a Todd Pletcher horse that beat El Kabeir by about half the length of the homestretch last year in New York. Blofeld is one of those horses whose recognizable name automatically knocks a few odds points off the board. Blofeld is the James Bond villain with the white cat. The evil genius from Central Casting was last seen in a Bond movie in 1981 and was presumed by suckers to have plunged to his death. But history tells us that Bond villains have strong regenerative powers. Blofeld the horse had his first workout of the season recently, venturing three furlongs in 37 seconds, once he remembered what a race track looked like. Based on his 3-0 record, I have had Blofeld on my top ten list of Kentucky Derby contenders all season. Given the frail state of so many young horses entering the Derby gauntlet in December and January, it could be a blessing that a Pletcher horse shows up late. In an off-Broadway type Derby future pool, an off-the-Vegas-strip bookie joint, Blofeld was listed at 45-1, about the same number as a Bond foe actually dying. When last seen last year, Blofeld was running fast.
Some horses are good enough to get you to be them, but not good enough to win the race. These horses usually show past performances from a mixture of surfaces, with one great Beyer speed number against decent competition. Horses like that attract confused money. Seeing through Beyer numbers is a key element in horse race handicapping. You can't discard consistently great Beyer numbers, or improving Beyer numbers. But some numbers must be discounted as a matter of routine. Here are some examples of Beyer numbers that are consistently inflated: wet track numbers, and short-field numbers. If a horse runs up front, it shouldn't matter if the competition numbers five or 15. But it does. Company is nerve-wracking. Horses that put up gigantic numbers versus four or five others seldom come close to that figure versus a full field. And nothing alters a running style like a wet track. Yet handicappers often read right through track conditions. Two Derby contenders that are apt to be over-bet next time around are Far Right and El Kabeir after off-track wins in Arkansas and New York.
Nothing alters a running style like a wet track. Yet handicappers often read right through track conditions. Two Derby contenders that are apt to be over-bet next time around are Far Right and El Kabeir after off-track wins in Arkansas and New York.
Before the big three-year old race at Santa Anita Saturday, a picker on TV shuffled around some papers that were probably digitally inspired and looked into the camera and said that he was going to try to beat the favorite, which was Dortmund. This is an example of the money that can be made by studying the public picker in a slump. Saying that you're going to try to beat the favorite is another way of saying you're looking for value. Those who look for winners usually do much better than those who look for a price. Besides, saying that you're going to try to beat the favorite isn't even half the battle. There's no "field" bet in going against Dortmund. You have to beat the favorite with a horse with a name, or pass on the race and have some more cheese product and chips. Whereas trying to beat the favorite sounds brave, it was a green light in this instance that told handicappers to double up on Dortmund.
The worst beating in any wagering proposition occurs when you're exactly right, but don't collect. It's why so many horse players are seen leaning against posts and walls. They need the support. Being 100 percent correct and losing happens all the time at horse racing. Here's how and why. The big score is the goal of most gamblers. It's why the scratch-off lottery tickets say there's a chance to win $40,000, instead of promoting the chance to win a free ticket. The "win a ton" mentality has minimized the importance of the win bet at the horse race track. To collect a lot on a win bet, it is perceived that you have to wager all you have on the favorite in a $5,000 claiming race. Consequently, many handicappers sit there with $100 in exotic wagers on a 10-1 horse, but nothing on it to win. And when it finishes first by ten lengths, and you miss all the exactas and trifectas, all you have to collect is your wits. If you like a horse that goes off at double-figures to one, you must bet it to win. Or enter rehab. Win bets are not restricted to Granny and her two bucks. Not collecting on a great pick is closer to nuts than dumb. I once liked a horse that went off at 50-1 on a wet track. It was a non-winner of two against the drum and fife corps. It circled the field and won by many. I did everything but bet the horse to win and collected only concern over my fading complexion from some friends. If you like anything from 10-1 on up and can't bet it to win, you're holding up the wrong wall.