Debate: NASCAR's burning questions

Our experts weigh in on four of the biggest questions in NASCAR this week:

Turn 1: Carl Edwards in 13th was the top Toyota finisher at Phoenix. Toyotas have finished in the top 10 only six times this season through four races. Should the Toyota teams be worried?

Ricky Craven, ESPN NASCAR analyst: Any time there are major rules changes, one organization seems to prevail while another seems to suffer. I've always felt like the month of May is the deadline for teams to have everything in order, otherwise it could be a long summer. Also, it's important to recognize that Kyle Busch's absence weighs heavy -- there is no substitute for talent and experience, and Kyle offers plenty of both.

Ryan McGee, ESPN.com: Denny Hamlin sure thinks so! And he's not wrong. I think the larger concern for TRD and its teams might not be lack of speed on the track, but lack of speed when it comes to reacting to rules changes. They were slow to get going last year, but looked like they'd made up the difference by season's end. Now they are faced with new changes and ... they are behind again. Considering NASCAR's penchant for rules changes, this is a problem.

John Oreovicz, ESPN.com: Definitely. Toyota has won a total of two races in the past calendar year of 36 races, and one of those was a restrictor-plate lottery claimed by Kyle Busch. Now Busch, who is Toyota's most consistent threat to win a race, is out indefinitely, and that's certainly not helping matters. Toyota execs believe they caught up to the competition in terms of horsepower by the end of 2014, but it looks like the new engine regulations may have set them back again. Either way, Toyota says the current drought is down to deficiencies in chassis and aero development rather than engine-related. But then they would say that ...

Bob Pockrass, ESPN.com: Yes. They didn't lead a lap at Phoenix and led 28 laps in the previous two races. If that doesn't worry a driver and a team, then nothing would worry them. As Roush and Penske proved last year (and this year), it isn't all about manufacturer and engine provider. Toyota appeared to have its engine issues solved near the end of last year, but with the change in horsepower, the Toyotas appear to be lacking maybe a little bit of speed. But they also aren't handling as well -- and don't forget that Toyota has a new body style this year (a new nose) so that possibly could be another reason Toyota is behind. The only thing that shouldn't worry the Toyota teams is that with the new Chase format, they have the opportunity to steal a win and have the problems solved by September.

Marty Smith, ESPN Insider: Probably. It's mighty early and most will tell you so. But racers worry about these things in shops and boardrooms. Finishes are often overrated in terms of judging a team or organization's performance. Wrecks. Failures. These things happen in NASCAR. Numbers on paper often don't tell the story. But laps led might be of concern for Toyota. Denny Hamlin has two top-fives in four starts this year. That's really strong on paper. But he has led 18 laps, the most of any Toyota driver. The most for Chevrolet: Kevin Harvick's 482. (Granted, he's on his own planet right now). The most laps led for Ford: Joey Logano's 197. Other notables: Jimmie Johnson has led 176 laps, Jeff Gordon 87 laps, Brad Keselowski 63. This is fixable for Toyota. It's early. Drivers and teams are still feeling out the new aerodynamics, how the cars react and how best to drive them. I picked Hamlin to win the championship. I still think he'll be there in Miami.

Turn 2: When was the last time you remember seeing a driver as dominant as Kevin Harvick is right now?

Craven: Jeff Gordon, 1997-98. So as happy as I am for Kevin, I have empathy for Tony Stewart. As impressive as it is to witness that level of performance, it's not always easy to be teamed with it!

McGee: Jimmie Johnson has so many hot streaks, but what he did at the end of 2006 through the beginning of 2007 was the best I've seen since Jeff Gordon's juggernaut year of 1998. What I remember most about both of those streaks was the sense of helplessness in the garage, that feeling of "we can't beat him, we'll just have to wait until they slow down and come back to Earth." Harvick's streak hasn't reached that point yet, but it's getting close.

Oreovicz: I'll let my colleagues make the NASCAR comparisons. In Indy car racing, Alex Zanardi's 1998 season in the CART-sanctioned championship is the most dominant I've witnessed in person -- 15 podiums out of 19 starts, with seven wins and little or no competition. In 1991, Michael Andretti won nine races in a 14-race stretch; his other results were a pair of thirds and three DNFs. In Formula 1, Michael Schumacher put together arguably the most dominant championship of all time in 2002, winning 11 of 17 races and landing on the podium 14 times. I also rate Alain Prost's 1988 season as one of the greatest of all time -- seven wins and seven second-place finishes in 16 starts. But it was only good for second place in the championship, because Ayrton Senna trumped the Frenchman with eight wins and a slightly spottier record in the remaining races.

Pockrass: Kyle Busch won six races in an 11-race span in the Sprint Cup Series in 2008. Jimmie Johnson also won six of 11 (including four consecutive races) on the way to the title in 2007. Ryan Newman won six out of 12 in 2003. And none seemed as dominant as Harvick is right now. You've got to go back to 1998, when Gordon won 13 races, including a stretch where he won seven of nine races, to where you really saw someone this dominant. Harvick has led a stunning 39.6 percent of laps over the past seven races.

Smith: To me, it's difficult to compare Harvick's run to anyone else's respective dominance, because context is so vital to its impressiveness. Harvick's ascension coincides with his transformation as a man. With the move to Stewart-Haas Racing, so much minutia around him washed away. Two things mattered: His family and going very fast in circles. He knew from the moment he climbed into that No. 4 car in December 2013 that it was on. Stone cold ON. And then he won in his second start. Validation. And then he won his last start. Solace. He won the championship. And with that championship comes so much solace. That trophy is a cleansing breath of air that only it can offer. So how could it possibly get better? Start with four consecutive top-two finishes to run the total to seven straight. But the most telling statistic of his dominance is not finishes, it's running order. Harvick has led 482 of 1,107 laps in 2015 -- 44 percent. That man has led nearly half the season so far. Insane.

My first season covering NASCAR was 1998, when Jeff Gordon and Mark Martin were the class of the field. Gordon won 13 races in 33 starts -- 40 percent! And Martin won seven himself. That No. 24 team with Gordon and Ray Evernham was probably the most dominant race team ever, though Martin and Jimmy Fennig led more laps that year. During the last 19 races of the 1998 season, Gordon either won or finished second 15 times. The other four races produced three other top-fives and no finish worse than seventh. He won the championship by 364 points. The thing that makes Harvick's run so impressive is pliability as a competitor and the transformation of the man. He and Rodney Childers are nasty. I've said so since the day their marriage announcement went out.

Turn 3: NCAA tournament time: Who's a driver you're looking at to pull a 12-over-5 style upset win this season?

Craven: Martin Truex Jr. is an obvious choice, but in spite of his single-car, Denver-based team facing tall odds entering the season, Martin has been only a half-step away from Victory Lane in 2015 thus far. The team now has the confidence to mix it up with the best Sprint Cup has to offer.

McGee: The greatest 12/5 upset in NASCAR history came on Sept. 15, 1957, when Marvin Porter won at the Santa Clara, California, fairgrounds diving the No. 12 Ford. He earned his lone Grand National victory by beating the likes of Eddie Pagan and Parnelli Jones after previously going -- you guessed it -- 0-for-5 in his career. This year's candidate to pull off an upset has to be Martin Truex Jr. If he runs well at Fontana this weekend. a place where he typically struggles, then it's official, get the man some glass slippers.

Oreovicz: Jamie McMurray. He frequently finds a way to pull out an occasional race win even if week-to-week consistency isn't his strongest suit.

Pockrass: Austin Dillon. He knows how to win races and if RCR can improve its program a little, he has a solid crew and a veteran crew chief. By the way, the others I consider "12 seeds" are Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Danica Patrick, Trevor Bayne -- people at well-funded, multicar teams who haven't performed all that well.

Smith: Martin Truex Jr. Just like many 12-seeds, he's had a great season without as many highly-touted resources as some of those 5s. (East Coast bias! I kid.) The No. 78 team is sound, with a great young coach in Cole Pearn and a hungry transfer point guard in Truex who had success at a larger program, went through adversity and became a better player with far greater life context on the other side. Look out for the 78. Kyle Larson is another 12-seed to watch -- and AJ Allmendinger could pull a Richmond as a 15-seed.

Turn 4: Will Kurt Busch make the Chase?

Craven: Yes. Kurt has less distraction and more determination than how he began the season. These two things will help him erase the three-race deficit and lead him to a Chase berth.

McGee: Wait, you didn't get the same emails that I got this week saying that a top-10 at Phoenix in his first race back means that he's one of the greatest race car drivers of all time?

Oreovicz: Yes. If you look at Stewart-Haas Racing right now, Busch has a much greater chance of winning a race than either Tony Stewart or Danica Patrick. Making it into the top 30 in points despite missing three races should not be a major issue. Busch has too much talent to go winless over a full season, and his motivation right now is undoubtedly higher than ever.

Pockrass: Yes. He will win a race and be in the top 30 in points. He's a great driver and he has a crew that has experience winning with Ryan Newman. They ran well enough late last year and this past weekend at Phoenix that they will have a day where everything falls into place. I don't consider them a championship contender yet -- they will need to show consistency as a unit -- but they certainly will make the Chase.

Smith: Yes. I don't think there's any question about that. Busch will win at least one race and possibly several. Imagine what's behind him mentally and emotionally now. Imagine the difference mentally and emotionally for him, climbing in the race car on Sunday afternoons with nothing more to concern him than the race car. No legal drama. No fear for criminal charges. Nothing but whether the car's loose or tight. That's a different world.