In an interview with Christopher Clarey of The New York Times ahead of a Tuesday exhibition match at Madison Square Garden, the 33-year-old revealed that the biggest goal left in his career is to win Wimbledon one more time, which would give the Swiss player a record eighth title. (What, not Roland Garros?) And as long as we’re dreaming, a return to No. 1 wouldn’t be bad either, Federer says, though his reduced schedule, a concession to his age, is making that a longer and longer shot.
So what are the odds of Federer getting that elusive eighth title, the one that he was ever-so-close to winning last summer against Novak Djokovic? Do we start with the good news or the bad news?
The bad news
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It’s always better to start with the bad news. Quick, how many of the last five Wimbledons has Roger Federer won? Correct, the answer is “one,” with that win coming in 2012 over a then title-less Andy Murray. Last year, Federer had as easy a draw as he’ll ever get at the All England Club, facing only the Nos. 8 and 23 seeds en route to the final against Djokovic. And though he played well, Federer still couldn’t get past the world’s top player, even if that match was decided by just a few points.
There’s a ticking clock with Federer, of course. Only two men (Ken Rosewall and Andres Gimeno) have won majors while older and those victories occurred more than 40 years ago. Excluding Federer himself, just two men in the past 15 years (Andre Agassi and Pete Sampras) have won majors while in their 30s.
The good news
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Now, Federer isn’t any of those guys. His graceful movements on the court belie his age and he looks like he can keep doing this well past the 2016 Olympics, which had always served as a theoretical ending point to his career. Just last weekend, he punished Djokovic in the Dubai final, showing he can still hang with the best in the world
Rafael Nadal is no longer a threat at Wimbledon — he’s barely a threat to make it to the second Monday. The grass courts suit Federer well and a particularly speedy Centre Court would pay huge dividends if the groundskeepers decided to go that way this year or next. (Players have complained that the grass has gotten slower and slower over the years.)
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So, with Nadal mostly out of the grass-court picture, it’s basically Djokovic and Murray. In a good draw, Federer would have to face one. In an ideal draw, he could face neither, like when he won his French Open in 2009.
Though the inexorable march of age isn’t going anywhere, Federer still has at least two chances to win at Wimbledon (and maybe one or two more at the U.S. Open too). The Grand Slam dream is still alive. For now.
