JD(U)'s 'loss' a gain for BJP, RJD?

PATNA: Only time will tell who is the Bhishma Pitamah and who is the Bhasmasur in JD (U), but it is certain that the political fallout of Saturday developments will set the course of politics in Bihar for the assembly elections, otherwise due in October-November this year.
Though CM Jitan Ram Manjhi had a scheduled NITI Ayog meeting, to be presided by PM Narendra Modi, in Delhi on Sunday, his leaving Patna Saturday evening amid turmoil in his own backyard stoked speculations that a new political alignment may emerge in the coming few days as top state BJP leaders are already there, busy discussing the scenario with the top leadership and a Manjhi-PM meeting is also on the cards.
Given the fact that Manjhi has assiduously nursed his dalit and Mahadalit constituency over the last few months as CM, every political party, including BJP and RJD, will try to take advantage of his vote base. Agriculture minister Narendra Singh’s statement that the Manjhi camp would not be averse to taking BJP support and flying to Delhi smacks of the possible new relationship.
The over 20% dalit and Mahadalit votes are significant to tilt the scale in any political party’s favour in an election. Up till now, they have been voting for either RJD or JD (U) after the Congress was reduced to the margins. BJP badly needs a solid votebank beyond upper castes, but they are treading a cautious path as JD (U) and RJD will make an issue of its support to Manjhi, if it decides to do so, or the CM embraces the saffron flag.
Manjhi on Friday had opened his cards – that he had nothing to lose in the fight against Nitish camp as he had already achieved what he wanted to do, by making dalits and Mahadalits aware of their strength.
Lalu Prasad’s stand that his party supported the JD (U) and not any individual carries more meaning than it meets the eye. A weak JD (U) will be always welcome to the RJD which has a comparatively larger vote base than any other single political party in Bihar. Lalu needs Nitish’s face to counter the BJP, but at the same time would not like to antagonize Mahadalits. The BJP says RJD will be its main rival in the next election. Madhepura RJD MP Pappu Yadav backing Manjhi on Saturday signifies his importance. “Nitish should explain why did the need arise to replace Manjhi,” Pappu asked, soothing the CM’s ruffled feather.
Union minister Ram Vilas Paswan has sought President’s rule or early election in Bihar in view of the political ‘instability’. “The JD (U) legislature party meeting called by Sharad Yadav was unconstitutional. The best thing can be either President’s rule or going in for an early assembly poll,” he said. His statement was in tandem with Sushil Modi, who, too, favours early polls in Bihar.
Even Sharad’s statement that he was busy the whole day for a peaceful solution to the political logjam in the party is significant as he said, “I never gave any statement against any individual.”