Delhi elections 2015: Bhagora? 49-day term proves to be an asset, not a liability for AAP

NEW DELHI: With the campaign for Delhi drawing to a close in a frenzy of mudslinging and with opinion polls suggesting that the Aam Aadmi Party may have nosed ahead of the BJP, TOI undertook a day-long drive through nine constituencies in west and south Delhi to check out what’s exciting voters and determining their choices. While opinions and voting intentions were varied, some unmistakable trends emerged.
First, it is evident that these elections are more about Arvind Kejriwal and AAP than about Narendra Modi or Kiran Bedi. Like last time, AAP seems to have set the discourse of this election. So, the talk is more about water, electricity, slums, jobs and corruption.
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By the time electioneering was coming to an end, both BJP and Congress were responding to this, often promising one better than AAP – like the BJP promising a pucca house where the poor man’s jhuggi stands today.
Secondly, AAP’s 49-day government of a year ago was supposed to be a big handicap in this election — the BJP campaign dubbed Kejriwal a 'bhagora' (quitter) who fled from responsibility — but on the ground it appears to be its biggest asset. Leave aside the underclass, which talk about cheaper “bijli” and “pani” given by AAP, there is recognition among shopkeepers, big and small, that Kejriwal’s 49-day tenure saw the “rishwatkhori” police and the much-feared MCD “committee” almost disappear, only to reappear once AAP was out of office.
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Would this dramatic curtailment of corruption have been possible if the AAP government had lasted beyond 49 days? Common sense suggests that the police and MCD officials would not meekly have settled for a life with no ‘upari’ – that wonderful euphemism for ill-gotten income for those in office. The initial apprehensions about getting caught and having to pay the price may well have receded as the system struck back.

Gani, who runs a car mechanic’s outfit in Hauz Rani, had a telling anecdote about those 49 days. He recalled how, in the early days of AAP’s short term, the beat constable came by one day seeking the regular ‘hafta’. As luck would have it, Gani happened to be pulling out his cellphone at that point. “The policewala panicked. He thought I was following Kejriwal’s advice of recording demands for bribes and would lodge a complaint against him,” he recalled with amusement. The cop promptly – for the benefit of the “recording” phone – amended his demand. “Woh jo 1,500 ruppiaye udhaar diye the, woh kab doge?” he asked, said Gani, chuckling. “The cop then vanished and didn’t reappear till AAP had quit office.”
This refrain of how AAP had put a stop to extortion and petty corruption illustrates an extremely interesting dynamic. The trading community, always seen as the bedrock of the BJP’s support base in the capital, may be more solidly behind AAP than the saffron outfit this time.
It’s not as if there are no discordant notes to this refrain. Har Mohan Thakkar, an elderly builder in Kalkaji not shy of admitting he has long been a Congress supporter, did not share this enthusiasm about AAP’s anti-corruption crusade. While admitting that petty corruption had been curbed, he suggested the fledgling party ‘made up’ through a handful of higher value payoffs. His friend, a BJP supporter, nodded in agreement. But sceptics like Thakkar seemed few.
A few other things are working for AAP. Their MLAs and workers, for instance, seem to have worked among the people – especially in villages and slum clusters – right through the last nine months following the Lok Sabha election. Here is an example. The BJP and AAP candidates for the Greater Kailash seat are both from the Chirag Dilli village. We chanced to meet Umed Singh, who claimed to be the uncle of the BJP candidate, Rakesh Gullaiya. He said while Gullaiya, a councillor, was rarely seen, AAP’s Saurabh Bharadwaj had spent his Rs 4 crore laying water pipelines in the village. “Now my nephew comes for my vote and support. Okay, I’ll vote for him, but 75% of this village is with AAP,” he said.
The story was similar in Hari Nagar, Mayapuri, Delhi Cantt and Malaviya Nagar. The AAP candidates there are spoken of as being helpful, dedicated to the people and being one of them. In hindsight, the nine-month delay in holding the Delhi election after the Lok Sabha polls appears to have helped AAP marshal its troops and regroup, regaining in the process the voter’s faith after being dismissed as a lot that ran a maverick government of dharnas and agitations and eventually quit office in unseemly hurry.
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Getting back to the grassroots, in turn, has made AAP much more in tune with the local issues than the BJP. In fact, BJP seemed to have banked too much on Modi’s appeal to swing the election. In the course of our meetings with 45-odd people across the city, Modi himself didn’t come across as a big issue. He is spoken about with regard as a central leader, but clearly not as the person who would handle the day-to-day business of the Delhi government. Nor is there any great buzz about Kiran Bedi.
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A couple of times when Bedi was mentioned, it was with some trepidation. Vedpal Chaudhry, who runs a dairy in Malaviya Nagar, said Bedi was a stickler for rules and that might hurt them. “She might stop us from displaying our goods outside our shops,” he said. In the Lok Sabha election, Chaudhary had voted for BJP. “I’m not so sure this time,” he said. Others said Bedi was a “good woman” but they didn’t know much about her.
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Shailendra, a chemist in Hauz Rani, told us how the erstwhile Congress base in the Malaviya Nagar constituency has almost totally shifted to AAP. He said his young son had been very enthusiastic about AAP in the last assembly elections but got disgusted after they quit the government. “Ab, pichhle kucchh dinon se woh aur uske dost phir AAP ke taraf khichne lagen hain,” he says with a bemused expression. With Shailendra himself softer on the BJP, and his father still committed to Congress, the three parties are drawing support from different generations of the same family.
Shailendra’s family is not unique in this respect. We met three students from Uttar Pradesh in Lajwanti Garden in the Hari Nagar constituency. All three are studying geology from Ram Lal Anand College and are out campaigning for AAP. What motivates them? The promise of a new clean politics, they say. One of them also pointed out that AAP has succeeded in drawing them into politics where all others had failed. The Anna Hazare movement provided the first spark and AAP has kept the flame alive, he says. He and his father, a BJP supporter, don’t see eye to eye on the issue, he says ruefully.
We tested the Modi factor with almost everyone we met. Hardly anyone spoke ill of him (some workers at the DJB’s R K Puram office, however, called Modi a representative of the rich), but virtually no one spoke of him with enthusiasm in the context of the Delhi election. Some of the awe for him also seemed be fading, particularly among the poorer sections.
Manoj Verma, who owns a shop in the cantonment area catering largely to services personnel, sprung a surprise by saying Modi shouldn’t have called Obama for the Republic Day parade and showed him our guns and tanks. But why, we asked. “Arre, yeh toh Audi wale ko Alto dikhana hai,” he said and laughed.
Verma and his friend Raj Wadhera, both unabashed AAP supporters, insisted that “all the faujis are voting for AAP”. It’s a claim that was difficult to verify since most services men were not keen on revealing their political preferences, but a couple of them who opened up did say they would vote for AAP.
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As we wound up the day-long drive, one change about the city became apparent. It no longer shies away from discussing politics, or wearing its political affiliations on its sleeves. In the past, we would routinely come across people using the “secret ballot” plea to fob off questions on political preferences. On this tour, it was quite the opposite – almost everyone wanted to tell us which way they were voting and why.
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This dramatic change in the city’s political character, as young Delhi University lecturers Neetu and Pankaj said, was largely due to AAP and the Anna movement. “When we were doing our graduation just three-four years back, we had no clue about politics, who was contesting, who was winning or losing,” said Neetu. “Today every student is discussing the elections.”
Whether they win or lose, this has certainly been AAP’s contribution to the city.
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