Netanyahu’s gimmicks to gain votes

“The region cannot afford another war front.”

This is the main message sent to Israeli Defence Minister Moshe Yaalon this week by Hizbollah’s secretary general, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, through the United Nations peacekeeping agency UNIFIL.

The massage clarifies the political ambiguities that emanated from Israeli missile attack on the Golan Heights, on January 18, which killed six Iranians and six Hizbollah fighters, including Revolutionary Guards General Mohammad Allahdadi, serving as an adviser to the Syrian army.

The Shebaa Farms incident a few days ago, which left two Israeli soldiers dead, was marginalised by the indirect contacts between the main protagonists, who realised that individuals’ reactions are not part of a policy strategy planned by the higher command within Hizbollah.

Moreover, Tehran is not in a position to encourage Sayyed Nasrallah to start a new war front, from southern Lebanon or from Quneitra, since the fallout would impede the final steps needed to wrap up the Iranian nuclear file and end the economic sanctions imposed by the US and the EU.

The Iranian middle class level of tolerance is approaching zero level as a result of the government’s rationing of daily needs.

The only beneficiary from creating tension in the region and threatening to use escalation tactics is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is using the Israeli army to maximise his election base.

Prior to the Golan Heights attack, public opinion polls indicated that the Likud party ranked third among other political contestants, including the Zionist Union.

Following the Golan attack and the Shebaa Farms incidents, the Likud rating jumped to the first place, confirming that Netanyahu’s stratagem to use public anxiety to generate election votes was working.

The poll found that the Likud would win 25 seats, the Zionist Union 24, Bayit Yehudi 14, the Joint Arab List 12, Yesh Atid 11, United Torah Judaism and Koolanu eight, Shas seven, Meretz six and Yisrael
Beiteinu five.

A former high-ranking Israeli general, Yoav Galant, wrote that Netanyahu is using the army for electioneering purposes.

The ruling party used attacks against Lebanon three times in the past to win seats in the Knesset and to mobilise the average Israeli citizens to rally behind the symbols of power and authority.

That psychological tactic always helped the Likud win elections by fabricating some provocations to justify an air bombardment or a land attack that would give scared citizens the feeling that they are protected.

That might be what made the former head of the Israeli Mossad, Meir Dagan, say to the Jerusalem Post last week: “I do not trust Benjamin Netanyahu.”