When it rains, baseball players trot to the clubhouse. Basketball is staged indoors. Volleyball, indoors or on sun-drenched beaches. Soccer, a summer sport, usually doesn't play in winter. Ice hockey is almost always in an enclosed arena.
Among the major team sports, football alone is performed in all conditions. From sweltering humidity to freezing cold, in rain, snow and wind, football is a manly man pursuit that laughs at the elements -- unless the team has a domed stadium, of course. "Hot to cold" is a longstanding football goal, meaning the team begins training in August heat and is still playing in the wintry winds of January.
As the late summer breezes of the early football season yield to the crisp beauty of autumn and then to the bad weather of winter, the NFL teams left standing tend to be the ones that can deal with weather. Sunday's conference championship games showed this. In rain and gusting wind at New England, the dome-based Colts were blown off the field. In rain and gusting wind at Seattle, the cold-acclimated Packers lost a close one to the rain-acclimated Seahawks, whose natural habitat is drizzle.
Weather conditions dictated a strange first half at Seattle, where Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson, entering the contest with six total career postseason interceptions, threw five interceptions in that half alone. Both teams dropped passes as receivers couldn't hold slick footballs. One Wilson interception looked like a deep completion when released, then was held up by a gust of wind. Rodgers threw a pick on a play that began just as the rain increased considerably. Both quarterbacks had trouble releasing the ball cleanly and missed open receivers. The second half saw four dropped passes, a dropped interception by Green Bay and a muffed catch of an onside kick. Game conditions went from rain to sun then rain then sun then hard rain then stiff wind then calm.
When weather-based luck favored Green Bay in the first half -- helping the Packers to four Seattle turnovers and a 16-0 lead at intermission -- the visitors seemed to grow overconfident and not consider that weather-based luck might go Seattle's way later. The drop-off in rain and wind arrived just as the Hawks' furious comeback began.
At New England, rain was a factor in five first-half dropped passes, a muffed fair catch and a badly off-target field goal into wind. The Patriots won so decisively that the weather was irrelevant by the end. If this had been a high school game, it would have gone to running clock early in the fourth quarter.
But in the first half, when the contest was close, Indianapolis seemed totally flummoxed to be playing in rain and wind rather than the ideal conditions the Colts are accustomed to. The Patriots have eight straight postseason victories at Our Next Razor Will Have 12 Vibrating Palladium Blades Plus GPS Stadium when the visitor is a hot-weather or domed-based team, including a 4-0 streak in hosting Indianapolis in the playoffs. (Tennessee and Oakland have also lost recently at New England in January, but these teams aren't total strangers to cool weather.)
In a season of pass-wacky play and de-emphasis of the running game -- no running back was chosen in the first round of the 2014 draft, and this season, there were 23 receivers with at least 1,000 yards but only 13 thousand-yard rushers -- the rainy days reminded that handoffs are not obsolete. New England outrushed Indianapolis by 94 yards; Seattle outrushed Green Bay by 59 yards. When the weather is bad, you'd better be able to run the football.
Now Seattle and New England advance to a Super Bowl in Arizona -- ideal conditions.
In other football news, this column pounds the table so much about not kicking on fourth-and-short that it's amazing the table has not broken. Four times in the NFC championship game, the Green Bay Packers faced fourth-and-1. Four times Mike McCarthy did the "safe" thing by sending in the kicking team. How'd that work out for you? See more below.
In TMQ news, six weeks ago this column foresaw a Super Bowl pairing of Seattle versus New England. Sure, it was a hedged bet; during the season I made several Super Bowl forecasts -- one of them had to turn out right! In the time-honored tradition of analysts who made multiple forecasts only one of which proved correct, that's the only one I will point to.
Stats Of The Title Round No. 1: Seattle became the first repeat conference champion since the 2003-04 Patriots.
Stats Of The Title Round No. 2: The Patriots are 4-0 versus Andrew Luck and outscored the Colts 189-73 while rushing for 772 yards in those games.
Stats Of The Title Round No. 3: Coming into the title round, the final four teams had combined to open 6-9 then go 46-8.
Stats Of The Title Round No. 4: The Patriots' possession results from the start of the second half until garbage time: touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown.
Stats Of The Title Round No. 5: Since their Super Bowl wins, the Colts and Packers are on a combined 7-11 postseason stretch.
Stats Of The Title Round No. 6: Both title games were rematches. In rematch situations, the teams that prevailed in the regular season (either 1-0 or 2-0 versus the opponent) are 55-43 in the postseason.
Stats Of The Title Round No. 7: In two Packers-Seahawks games at Seattle this season, Green Bay had only three offensive plays of at least 20 yards. Seattle had 11 offensive plays of at least 20 yards.
Stats Of The Title Round No. 8: The Packers, the league's highest-scoring team of 2014, were eliminated. In the past 15 years, the 2009 Saints were the sole highest-scoring team to win the Super Bowl that season.
Stats Of The Title Round No. 9: It's the second time in four years the Packers have been the league's highest-scoring team but failed to reach the Super Bowl.
Stats Of The Title Round No. 10: Seattle is on a 9-0 home streak in the postseason.
Sweet Play Of The Title Round: The Patriots' unconventional formations versus Baltimore received enormous attention, so Indianapolis must have expected more of same. In the title game, New England showed sets of six offensive linemen or four offensive linemen with an ineligible receiver split. It seemed no magic formula -- one set of four offensive linemen and a split ineligible resulted in a hitch screen attempt clanging incomplete. After that, perhaps Indianapolis thought the trick plays were over.
When the Patriots reached third-and-1 on the Colts 16 in the third quarter, backup offensive lineman Cameron Fleming had reported eligible 11 times to that juncture in the contest. Each time, Fleming lined up as the right tight end and blocked; he was reporting eligible but not going out for a pass. On the third-and-1, left tackle Nate Solder also reported eligible -- the first time he'd done so. This should have been a bright flashing light to the Indianapolis defense. But Colts defenders didn't notice New England went unbalanced line on the play. That made Solder the tight end on the left, though to the defense he looked like the left tackle. The 15-yard touchdown pass to the 6-foot-8, 320-pound Solder was a thing of beauty, and it broke open the contest.
Note that what happened was the guy who seemed to be lined up as the left tackle was actually a tight end -- same thing that happened on New England's big odd-formation completion versus Baltimore and on Baylor's touchdown pass to an offensive linemen in its bowl game. Because most offenses are right-handed, defenders pay more attention to the offensive right. That makes the place where the left tackle normally would be the most dangerous position in trick formations.
Sour Play Of The Title Round: With Green Bay seemingly in command with the score 19-7 and three minutes remaining, Seattle threw a deep "wheel" pattern to Marshawn Lynch for a 26-yard gain --- his sole reception of the NFC title contest. The Bluish Men Group would get a touchdown three snaps later, and the fateful onside kick was set in motion.
Middle linebacker Sam Barrington was covering Lynch deep, after first being run through a pick by Seattle tight end Luke Willson. Twice earlier, Seattle had tried this play and Willson failed to pick Barrington off; this time, he succeeded. Warned Seattle was trying to set a pick to get Lynch deep, Green Bay coaches didn't react -- and left the middle linebacker running deep with a Super Bowl invitation on the line. Sour. Earlier, when Seattle faced third-and-19, Green Bay had Clay Matthews cover the slot man deep, which led to a 29-yard gain to Doug Baldwin and sustained would what become a touchdown drive. Doubly sour.
Sweet 'N' Sour Play: The Seahawks scored 15 points in 44 seconds to force overtime, then won the coin toss. The football gods were smiling on Seattle, possibly because with 52 degrees, rain and gusty winds at kickoff, the cheerleaders came out wearing miniskirts. Now Seattle faced third-and-7 on its 30 on the initial possession of the fifth quarter. Intimidated by Seattle's late-game rediscovery of its ability to rush with Marshawn Lynch, the Packers showed a nine-man press front with both safeties low, expecting a short pass or a rush. Doug Baldwin blew past the corner on a stutter-go for a 35-yard completion. Sweet.
On the next snap, Green Bay again showed press coverage, with eight in the box. Seattle kept seven blockers back, and one safety covered a tight end. The playside safety cheated toward the line of scrimmage expecting run, and Jermaine Kearse blew past the corner on a skinny post for the winning touchdown. Double sweet. To that point, every Seattle pass targeted to Kearse had been either intercepted or incomplete; the winning catch was Kearse's only reception of the game.
For Green Bay, it was sour the Packers' defense allowed only 192 yards of offense and seven points in the first 55 minutes, then gave up 205 yards and 21 points in the final eight minutes. Green Bay didn't "roll" its front seven, which by late in the contest were visibly winded, especially 35-year-old Julius Peppers. For most of the contest, Green Bay used two- or three-down defensive lines intended to stop the pass. Late, the Packers switched to eight in the box to stop the run, thereby inviting Russell Wilson to throw deep. Seattle's two longest plays, both of 35 yards, were the two final snaps of the contest. On the winner, the Green Bay safety was so low presnap it was practically Cover Zero on the playside.
The Yosemite Climbers Have Nothing On Ralph Fiennes: Several Oscar nominations went to "The Grand Budapest Hotel," a pleasantly quirky diversion. Although a comedy about a resort in the 1930s, it contains a scene in which the three lead characters hang by their fingertips above a deep chasm, certain to die at the slightest slip. But then it's a modern Hollywood release. In today's Hollywood, everybody who is anybody hangs by the fingertips.
In "Skyfall," James Bond hangs by his fingertips from a high bridge, then from a skyscraper, as does a bad guy Bond is trying to kill. Four times in the 2009 Star Trek reboot, New Improved Kirk hangs by his fingertips from a great height (the first time viewers see Kirk, as a boy, he's hanging by his fingertips). In the second movie of the reboot, New Improved Spock hangs by his fingertips. In "Elysium," Matt Damon hangs by his fingertips from a great height. On TV's "Hawaii Five-0," all the leads at some point hang by their fingertips from a great height; some guest actors too. The 2001 chick flick "Kate & Leopold" had its leads dangle by their fingertips from the Brooklyn Bridge; the movie was a romance! Wes Anderson directed "Grand Hotel Budapest." His previous movie, "Moonrise Kingdom," also a quirky comedy, had the lead character hanging by his fingertips from a church spire.
For conjunction of absurd action clichés, little tops the 2011 movie "Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol." First a Russian prison for high-value criminals, said to be escape-proof, has an enormous sewer right underneath -- but there's no water running through the sewer, and it's lighted! An elegant Mumbai hotel for the super-rich has a bottomless pit at its center, complete with gigantic, slowing rotating, backlit fan. In Burj Khalifa, the world's tallest building, on the 120th floor, the Mission Impossible team smashes out a floor-to-ceiling window. Howling winds ought to blow through; instead, the room is perfectly calm. When the bad guys burst in, they DON'T NOTICE THERE IS NO WALL ON THE 120TH FLOOR. Soon Tom Cruise is outside, hanging by his fingertips.
Next week's TMQ will review the critical role of bottomless pits in contemporary cinema. If you've got a favorite bottomless pit, tweet it to me @EasterbrookG with your name and hometown.
Academy Awards note: Why is there no Oscar for goofiest statement by a Hollywood grandee? TMQ's nominee: Sylvester Stallone apologized for not enough violence in "The Expendables 3" and called the decision to go PG-13 "a horrible miscalculation ... I'm quite certain it won't happen again."
It Ain't Over Til It's Over: Has any team ever looked more defeated than Seattle did when Morgan Burnett picked off Russell Wilson with five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter? The Seahawks were down 19-7, and Green Bay had the ball near midfield. Seattle, one of the league's best on give/take ratio, had turned the ball over five times at home. Considering a long interception runback, the Seahawks posted negative-45 yards passing in the first half. Seattle looked so beaten that thousands of fans with blue faces or green beards headed for the exits.
Intercepting, Burnett deliberately went down. In retrospect, many are wondering why he didn't attempt a runback. Green Bay thought the game was over: Burnett's teammates made the "get on the ground" gesture. This wasn't a bad decision on his part -- no risk he'd fumble.
Somehow, the Packers managed to take only 64 seconds off the clock and leave Seattle with one timeout before booming a punt. On all three snaps, Green Bay rushed directly into a nine-man box. Seattle offered Aaron Rodgers a chance to ice the contest with a long pass -- and as in every other instance in the game, given the choice between conservative tactics and being bold, the Packers went conservative. This gave Seattle possession again with four minutes remaining, and the football gods decided to calm the wind and rain.
After the touchdown that made the count 19-14, Seattle onside kicked, and the Green Bay hands team botched the play. Another quick Seattle touchdown made it 20-19 home team. On the deuce try, Russell Wilson was flushed from the pocket and retreated all the way to the Packers 18 before lofting a crazy, cross-the-field pass that was in the air for three seconds -- quite a long time for a pass to be airborne. Tight end Luke Willson, assigned to block, had scrambled left when he saw Wilson in trouble. He caught the deuce pass, which Green Bay safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix inexplicably simply watched, rather than knock down.
This nutty deuce meant Green Bay's last-second field goal forced overtime, rather than winning the contest for the visitors. On the down before the field goal, the injured Richard Sherman tackled Jordy Nelson shy of the line-to-gain. Had Nelson reached first down, Green Bay would have had about 15 seconds -- and all its timeouts -- to take shots at the end zone and try to win in regulation. Sherman hardly needs more attention. But making this tackle while playing with one arm hanging at his side was impressive.
The Make-Believe In American Taxation: With President Barack Obama expected to announce a proposal to increase federal taxes on the wealthy, another round of commentary about tax-and-spend Washington is likely. The 114th Congress is sworn in, so anti-Washington rhetoric is sure to ramp up. Governors Scott Walker and Chris Christie are possible 2016 presidential contenders, while former governors Jeb Bush and Rick Perry mIGHT declare. All are likely to denounce the nation's capital and praise states as models of responsible government. Here's the catch -- Washington is financing the states, while local government is more overstaffed than federal. The structure of American fiscal politics is based on a fairy tale of lean states and cities, and bloated Washington. In many respects, it's the other way around.
Consider taxes. Many Americans complain bitterly about federal taxes. Yet with three federal income tax cuts since 2000 -- two under George W. Bush and one under Barack Obama -- about half the American population pays no federal income taxes, while everyone pays state and local taxes.
This breakdown of effective tax rates shows the bottom 20 percent of the ladder pays to Washington negative-9.2 percent on income taxes (mainly by receiving the Earned Income Tax Credit, checks that constitute a "negative tax"), 8.4 percent as social insurance taxes (mainly Social Security) and 1.6 percent in federal excises taxes. That adds up to the bottom quintile paying Washington a net of about 1 percent of its income in exchange for all federal government (national defense, air traffic control, highways, space exploration, medical research) while receiving Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and other benefits.
The same group pays state and local government about 10.9 of its income. For low earners, federal income taxes are essentially waived while benefits are generous. Yet no one can escape state and local sales taxes, energy taxes, excise taxes and property taxes, and most state and local governments don't provide anything like the cash benefits that flow through Social Security and related federal programs.
The tax numbers become more progressive as household income rises, but the same basic story remains until the upper middle class is reached: Tens of millions of Americans get more from the federal government than they pay for, while most Americans pay more to state and local government than they get.
Next, consider federal revenue distribution to states. Governors shake one fist at Washington while using the other hand to accept lavish checks. Most states receive about 30 percent of their revenue as distribution of federal taxes. In 2012, Texas and New Jersey, home to Washington-denouncers Perry and Christie, were handed nearly $51 billion combined by Washington, or about 30 percent of the states' total revenue that year. Since 2000, Washington has passed around $5.3 trillion to the states. That's more than a quarter of the national debt. If Washington did not subsidize state and local governments, the national debt would be far smaller and no longer viewed as an emergency.
Governors of both parties boast about balancing their states' budgets, then denounce Washington as spendthrift. Actually, Washington borrows money so the states can pretend to operate in the black. The whole structure of taxation and revenue distribution is a switcheroo. The states appear to be efficient compared to their tax rates; Washington appears to be wasteful. If state and local government really were self-sufficient, state and local taxes would shoot up while federal taxes dropped.
But people want to believe the states are honorable while Washington is out of control. In the new "Washington Monthly," social scientist John Dilulio Jr., a former George W. Bush administration official, asks why Congress can get a rock-bottom approval rating yet nearly all congressional incumbents are re-elected. His answer is voters like the fact that Congress sustains the make-believe of low taxes and high spending: "For all the mass public's anti-Washington sentiments, most American voters are getting precisely what they want from the federal government, namely, ever more benefits without ever higher taxes." The make-believe is possible only via ruinous borrowing that burdens Americans not yet born. Because voters don't want to think about that, they prefer the switcheroo structure in which their hometown governments appear blameless while far-off Washington is sinister.
Dilulio adds that voters also want Congress to hold down the size of the federal bureaucracy: "The federal workforce was smaller in 2013 than it was in twenty-six of the fifty-three years since 1960, and much smaller than it was in 1960 relative to annual federal expenditures... [While the] federal civilian workforce has hovered around two million full-time bureaucrats, the state and local government workforce roughly tripled, to more than 18 million."
But the narrative America prefers is that Washington bureaucracy is the problem, while state and local bureaucracy is modest -- some kindly guy named Sparky who repairs lights in the park. Last week on the NBC hit show "Chicago PD," an oily federal official said to a virtuous Chicago street cop, "Everything you hear about Washington is true. The federal bureaucracy is big, slow and inefficient, not like the way you run things here in Chicago."
Really? Cook County has about 5.2 million people, or 1.7 percent of the nation's population. Per capita, Cook County accounts for about 33,000 of the two million federal employees. Cook County has about 41 percent of the population of Illinois, which in 2013 (most recent year for which Census Bureau data is available) had 561,864 state and local employees. Per capita, Cook County accounts for about 230,000 state and local government workers. That equates to Chicago having about seven times as many state and local employees as its share of federal employees.
And don't get me started on state and local government-worker pension problems! The big number is at least $1.3 trillion in unfunded liabilities for which mayors and governors, not anyone in Washington, should be blamed. Mayors and governors wanted the make-believe of low taxes plus high pensions for government employees, with the bill sent to Americans unborn. Trillions are hard to grasp, so consider a small number. The Chicago Transit Authority, which runs the L, by the most recent data has 8,317 active employees and 7,794 pensioned employees -- nearly as many drawing subsidies as working. The CTA's retirement fund has $1.7 billion in assets and $2.9 billion in liabilities. That's about 40 percent unfunded. Compared to local chicanery like this, the Social Security Administration is a model of probity.
Yet Americans want to believe states are well-run and Washington is a mess. As the next presidential election season heats up, we'll hear more of this popular nonsense.
Rule Changes For Safety Have Improved The Game: This New York Times article by Ben Shpigel smartly reprises many themes familiar to TMQ readers: how increased penalties against the secondary and new rules protecting the economic value of quarterbacks have increased NFL passing yards and touchdowns. The piece ran on Page 1 the morning of the conference title games. Football has risen so much in social significance that since September, some aspect of the sport has been on the New York Times front page pretty much every week.
Some stats about passing might not mean as much as it would seem. For instance, the increase in completion percent, from 60 percent in 2002 to 62.6 percent this season, equates to one more completed pass per team per game (assuming the same number of passes attempted).
But consider the big point -- a decade of rule changes intended to reduce hits on quarterbacks, increase the chances of completed passes and eliminate intimidating big hits by defenders (in order to reduce head trauma) have not sissified football, as some old-timers predicted. They've made football more popular than ever!
Consider the roughing-the-passer penalty against Jerrell Freeman of Indianapolis in the AFC title contest. A decade ago, Freeman's play would have been considered a clean hit. Now it's illegal. And what happened? The public likes less violent, more graceful, higher-scoring football. Stricter rules not only have made the game moderately less dangerous but also are a huge success for promotion of the sport.
Profit Is Evil, Say The Subsidized: The Super Bowl will be played at University of Phoenix Stadium. Set aside that Arizona taxpayers covered most of the cost of building this field, which, Amanda J. Crawford and Brian Chappatta of Bloomberg News report, has dragged down rather than boosted the local economy. Set aside that though taxpayers covered most of the cost, the NFL keeps nearly all the revenue from professional football games televised at the facility, while Cardinals' owner Bill Bidwell keeps the naming fee from the University of Phoenix, an online school.
President Barack Obama -- and establishment liberalism, generally -- have been complaining about for-profit colleges, a group that includes the University of Phoenix. Perhaps online learning isn't always effective and perhaps for-profit colleges push loans on the unsuspecting. But not-for-profit colleges are hardly sainted.
Not-for-profit colleges also push loans on the unsuspecting. Not-for-profit colleges might pay their faculty and administrators impressive sums -- the Chronicle of Higher Education reports 36 presidents of not-for-profit colleges earn at least $1 million annually, while charging ruinous tuitions to families whose incomes are a fraction of that of the college president. Yet the not-for-profits are in most respects tax-exempt, rolling in money while not pulling their own weight in taxes. This makes it seem the for-profit universities are acting in a socially responsible way by paying taxes, while the not-for-profits are building walls of special privilege around lavish pots of money.
Then there's the cost differential. The University of Phoenix surely does not provide top-tier education but charges only about $11,000 a year, while not-for-profit colleges charge far more. The average cost for in-state public universities is around $19,000 for a year, and for private colleges around $42,000. The not-for-profits are taking their students for a much more expensive ride.
Yet private, not-for-profit college education is booming. Recently, the Wall Street Journal reported the public university system of Maine, which is geared to be affordable for students from average backgrounds, has declining enrollment and is on track for a $90 million deficit in five years, a large sum in a small state. Maine's expensive private colleges -- Bates, Bowdoin and Colby -- are booming as never before. All top 10 of the US News universities are private and very expensive, with the highest-ranking public university Cal Berkeley at No. 20. The top 10 liberal arts colleges in the ranking are private and very expensive, with the highest-ranking public liberal arts college the Naval Academy at No. 13.
Tax-exempt, exclusive, not-for-profit colleges not only cater mainly to the children of affluence but also provide cushy livings for adults from privileged backgrounds. The Obama White House has backed a generous college student-loan forgiveness program. Offering loans and then forgiving repayment essentially is a subsidy to higher education faculty and administrators -- and because the private not-for-profits charge the most, they stand to benefit most from Obama's plan. But that's OK because the not-for-profits disdain the profit motive. Since the University of Phoenix likes the profit motive, it must be bad.
Postscript No. 1: Obama further has proposed making community colleges, which are geared to average students, nearly free. Sounds like a great plan -- how about taxing the Ivy League to finance it? The White House estimates Obama's proposal would cost around $6 billion annually. That's roughly what Harvard earned last year on its endowment.
Postscript No. 2: It is delicious to learn the faculty of Harvard, which in the main supported the Affordable Care Act, are squealing upon learning the terms of ObamaCare apply to the Harvard faculty too.
Grape Ovaltine Scandal Grows: Tuesday Morning Quarterback is reporting on an exclusive basis that two sources say multiple Seattle Seahawks were injected with grape Ovaltine before Sunday's NFC title contest. "Grape gives you so much more rush than chocolate," an unnamed player said. Long before 5 Hour Energy, Ovaltine promised to keep you going through the day.
Heisman Curse Meets The NFL Draft: Right now, most touts have Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota atop the draft. Don't be surprised if neither ends up there.
First, both are Heisman-winning quarterbacks, and beware the Heisman Quarterback Curse. Of the Heisman quarterbacks currently in the NFL -- Johnny Manziel, Robert Griffin III, Sam Bradford, Carson Palmer and Cam Newton -- none has a winning career record. This isn't an outlier. As NFL.com noted, "Since 1950, the combined NFL winning percentage for quarterbacks who won the Heisman Trophy is under .500 (480-501-4, .489)."
In the past 20 years, 14 Heisman quarterbacks have departed college. Danny Wuerffel became a star for the Rhein Fire; Gino Torretta, Chris Weinke, Eric Crouch, Jason White and Troy Smith had no NFL achievements; Charlie Ward never put on pads; Matt Leinart and Tim Tebow were flashes in the pan; Palmer, Bradford and Newton became secure starters, but none has a career winning record; the jury is out on Griffin and Manziel. This isn't much to write home about and suggests the kind of athletes who become Heisman quarterbacks aren't likely to shine in the NFL -- the major factor being that they played on stacked college teams that made everything look easy.
As for Winston and Mariota, Florida State uses a simplistic passing offense that only asks the quarterback to make about three types of throws and does not involve pro-style progression reads, as some college offenses do. On several downs in the Oregon-Florida State semifinal, Winston's passes sailed far from any receiver's hands. The Seminoles quarterback before Winston, EJ Manuel, has struggled in the pros with accuracy and reading defenses. There will be worries Winston will struggle in the same manner.
On several occasions in the college title contest, Mariota badly missed receivers. When the Ducks fell behind and shifted to dropback passing, he seemed lost. The high-profile nature of that game might backfire on Mariota's draft prospects. Although his stat line was great, pro scouts will notice he was mostly throwing to receivers who weren't covered by anyone. Winston and Mariota both play like a tall Robert Griffin III, which might be a strike against them on draft day.
God Demanded a Refund: Yet another "nonfiction" bestseller turns out to be fabricated. Mega-selling "A Million Little Pieces," presented as nonfiction, was simply fake. Mega-seller "Angela's Ashes," presented as a scrupulous nonfiction account of reality, was maybe "80 percent true", according to a Limerick, Ireland, amateur historian. "Running With Scissors" stopped calling itself a "memoir" and now simply calls itself a "book," following a legal settlement with people denounced in the "book" who maintained the volume is sensationalized. Serious authors including Mary Karr and the late David Foster Wallace have presented as "fact" what seems more like the haze of memory, and no one can really be sure of anything. Lena Dunham's bestselling true story of her life, well, maybe it's true. Even authors you've never heard of can play this game.
There is a perfectly respectable way to present writing that's made up -- by calling it fiction. "Angela's Ashes" would have been a fine work of fiction. Writing fiction is an admirable pursuit -- among the highest of the arts. But fiction doesn't sell as well as shocking, true stories. Suppose Rolling Stone's University of Virginia story had been presented as what it really was: fiction. It still might have made important points about women's experiences on campus. But calling it what it really was would have torpedoed sales and attention. Calling it a shocking, true story got everyone's attention.
Authors selling "shocking true stories" observe that even if they are later discredited, they get to keep the money. Publishers might reason, "Anyone, including any pious Christian, foolish enough to believe even one word of 'The Boy Who Came Back from Heaven' deserves to be out $25." But by publishing as "nonfiction" work that is made up, publishers devalue books. Why is society losing respect for books? Maybe publishers deserve some of the blame.
Recycled Headline: Patriots Clobber Colts: New England once again vanquished Indianapolis with such ease that it's hard to know what to make of the outcome. The Patriots needed all they had to defeat Baltimore the week before; the Colts rolled over early. With New England leading 7-0, Indianapolis reached first-and-10 at the Flying Elvii 33 and went incompletion, incompletion, incompletion. Chuck Pagano sent out the field goal unit, though a 51-yarder in rain into a stiff breeze was likely to fail. The kick missed badly, which gave New England great field position to take the ball the other way for a touchdown.
The New England defense basically toyed with the Indianapolis offense. Bill Belichick likes to "take away" the opposition's best offensive player. The Patriots had corner Kyle Arrington shadow T.Y. Hilton pretty much everywhere he lined up -- it looked more like a basketball defense than football -- while shading a safety to Hilton's side. That dared Indianapolis to win by throwing to less explosive players. The great Reggie Wayne didn't make a catch, while the Colts' highly drafted tight ends were held to 60 yards receiving. Once again, New England kept an opponent from a second-half touchdown.
The New England offense basically toyed with the Indianapolis defense. The Colts led the league during the regular season with 5.6 forced punts per game, but until garbage time, they forced only one Flying Elvii punt. Belichick knows Baltimore sells out to stop the run, so versus the Ravens, New England passed constantly. Belichick knows Indianapolis sells out to stop the pass, so Patriots coaches called 40 rushing plays.
In addition to six-linemen and four-linemen looks, twice New England split tailback Shane Vereen far out like a wide receiver. Both times, Vereen had linebacker coverage. The first time Vereen caught a 30-yard pass on a go route. The second time, Indianapolis called timeout to change its coverage. New England showed so many unorthodox looks on the way to a 45-7 beat-down that one wonders if Belichick shouldn't have held some of the good stuff for the Super Bowl.
Authentic Games Final Standings: Six weeks ago, the Authentic Games metric forecast a Denver-Arizona Super Bowl. I said I didn't trust the metric this year -- though last season, in early December it forecast a Denver-Seattle Super Bowl -- and my gut said New England-Seattle. The metric didn't start forecasting New England-Seattle until three weeks ago. It ends by clearly endorsing the two Super Bowl entrants. If it didn't, I'd be back to the drawing board.
Adventures In Officiating: On the possession after New England tackle Nate Solder reported eligible and caught a touchdown pass, the Flying Elvii faced second-and-1 on the Indianapolis 5. An unbalanced line found Solder lined up where a tight end normally would be. Tom Brady went up the middle for a first down, but the Patriots were flagged because Solder had not reported eligible. The play was a run -- reporting eligible only matters when a normally ineligible player is going downfield for a pass.
On Tom Brady's fourth-and-1 run for a first down -- this is a public service announcement: Teams that want titles go for it on fourth-and-short -- New England fullback James Develin, who rammed into Brady's back and pushed, should have been flagged for helping the runner. This penalty, a big factor in the old days of three yards and a cloud of dust, is almost never called today.
With Green Bay leading 16-0, Clay Matthews sacked Russell Wilson for a loss that made the upcoming down second-and-30 -- one of the many moments when the defending champions seemed finished. Seattle's J.R. Sweezy was flagged for a personal foul for diving into Matthews after he'd tackled Wilson. Inexplicably, zebras ruled the foul happened during the play, though Wilson and Matthews were both already down. That meant if Green Bay accepted the penalty, the sack would be erased and Seattle would replay the down. Needless to say, Green Bay declined. The penalty seemed -- to everyone except the officiating crew -- to be dead-ball; Green Bay should have been able to set Seattle back to second-and-45. The Seahawks would go on to convert a third-and-long and score on the possession. Could they have converted a possession that included a second-and-45?
Wacky Coffee Of The Week: The New York Times reported that by last winter, the Big Apple had 1,830 coffee shops, with a new coffee shop opening in the city every third day. Mere espresso is so passé; "pour over" coffee is the latest thing. Because midtown rents price out the artisanals, Brooklyn is where the coffee-a-holic action is.
Single Worst Game Of The Season -- So Far: To open the season, Green Bay scored just 16 points at Seattle. In 2012, Green Bay scored just 12 points at Seattle. No contemporary team makes it harder to reach goal-to-go than the Seahawks. If the Packers were to win the NFC championship, they needed to be aggressive when close. Play-not-to-lose tactics wouldn't work.
Yet after reaching fourth-and-goal at the Seattle 1 in the first quarter, Mike McCarthy sent in the field goal unit, after a third-and-goal play on which the Packers just ran straight ahead, with no misdirection. (At the Indianapolis 1 yard line, Bill Belichick had a tight end shift to split wide, then another tight end shift, then a man-in-motion away from the playside, which resulted in an uncovered man for the touchdown.) After reaching fourth-and-goal at the Seattle 1, again McCarthy opted for a placement kick. Then, upon reaching fourth-and-1 on the Seattle 22, again McCarthy sent out the kicking unit.
Victories don't come in the mail! Had McCarthy played for a touchdown in any of these three situations, the Packers likely would have won, as Seattle would have fallen too far behind.
At least these mincing, fraidy-cat kicks resulted in points. McCarthy's worst decision came with Green Bay leading 16-0 in the third quarter and facing fourth-and-1 at midfield. Seattle is the league's best fourth-quarter club. The previous week, Seattle had sputtered until the fourth quarter, when it came alive to crush the Panthers. Deafening noise was likely in the fourth quarter. Green Bay, in turn, tends to peter out in the fourth quarter and entered the title contest with a 320-160 first-half scoring edge but having been outscored 98-133 in the fourth quarter. Tuesday Morning Quarterback noted two weeks ago the Packers tend to lose the fourth quarter. If there's one place the visitors will lose the fourth quarter, it's at Seattle. So Green Bay could not sit on its hands in the third quarter. On the day, Green Bay rushed for a 4.5-yard average. Go for the first down! The Packers needed to put the Seahawks away.
Instead, McCarthy sent out the punter. Disgusted, the football gods caused Seattle to march the other way for the touchdown that brought the crowd to life. That touchdown was on a fourth-and-10 gamble. "Safe" tactics failed. Fortune favored the bold!
Coaches have good and bad games, just like players. Four fourth-and-1 decisions and four kicks. Mike McCarthy, you are guilty of the single worst game of the season -- so far.
Next Week: Nominees for the coveted "longest award in sports," TMQ's Non-QB Non-RB NFL MVP.