Will BJP be left out of J&K? Omar's offer of support to PDP is gamechanger

Omar Abdullah’s National Conference (NC) may have bowled a googly at the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) of Mufti Mohammed Sayeed by reportedly offering unconditional support to form the next government in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K).

While some TV channels have been flashing “breaking news” indicating that a letter of unconditional support has been sent to the PDP, Abdullah himself said it was only a verbal offer. He tweeted: “Looks like PDP is playing mind games with the BJP, leaking about a letter of NC support that doesn’t exist. Only a verbal offer conveyed.”

But verbal or not, his offer is a game-changer.

With PDP’s 28, and NC’s 17 (15 MLAs of its own, and two independents elected with its support), the resultant 45-strong coalition will clear the halfway mark of 44 in an 87-seat assembly. If we add the Congress party’s 12, the ménage a trois can form a representative government representing all three regions of J&K, leaving the BJP to suck its thumb in opposition.

Of course, one does not know if the “unconditional” support of the NC is really all that unconditional or even serious. It could even be an effort to embarrass the PDP, which is said to be discussing a coalition with the BJP.

The Mufti is caught between the devil and the deep sea. If he rejects the NC’s offer, Omar Abdullah will tom-tom his claim that the PDP brought the “Hindu” communal party into government. If he accepts it, he will have to dance to the tune of his main political rival in the valley.

Whichever way once looks at it, the NC’s move to lend support to a PDP-led government in J&K has implications. If accepted, it may not be a stable arrangement, given mutual antagonisms between the two parties in the past, but it can effectively keep the BJP out of government.

In a sense, the Congress is necessary for this alliance to work since otherwise the PDP-NC alliance would be a purely Kashmir Valley-based party. The Congress has some claim to representing Jammu and certainly Ladakh, where it won three of the four seats in the recent assembly elections. Keeping the Congress out means denying any representation to Jammu and Ladakh.

If the PDP actually accepts the NC offer, the BJP may find that it has been outmanoeuvred in the government formation game. But it should accept this with grace. In fact, it will find that, suddenly, the entire opposition space has been opened up for the party.

A two-party or three-party coalition of incompatibles will always be unstable, and so the BJP should use the opportunity to build its presence both in Jammu and the valley, not to speak of Ladakh.

The gang-up of valley parties against the BJP, which was second to the PDP only by three seats but marginally ahead in the popular vote, is like a deliberate effort on their part to subvert the mandate, which was in favour of the PDP in the Valley and the BJP in Jammu. But this is unavoidable in any hung house.

A gang-up is something the BJP should be used to. This is what happened to Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1996, when the BJP emerged as the single largest party, but found the opposition united against it. This led to the formation of a United Front of parties that were completely incompatible with one another. The khichdi lasted all of two years, and in 1998, Vajpayee was back with a bang as head of a new coalition.

The BJP should view the NC offer to PDP as a godsend to restart work on its Mission 44 plan.