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This was published 9 years ago
For big and small boats in the Sydney to Hobart fleet ... a rough and tumble first night is forecast
For boats big and small in this year's 70th Sydney to Hobart yacht race the goal on their first night at sea on Friday will be survival rather than to gain any tactical advantages with a southerly expected to hit them soon after the start.
Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Andrew Treloar said on Monday that it had forecast "fairly light winds to the east" for a colourful Boxing Day start marked by many of the 117-strong fleet using their spinnakers.
"We are looking first at some strong southerlies along the coast": Wild Oats XI navigator Juan Vila.Credit: Brendan Esposito
But then soon after the fleet passes through the Heads for the journey south it will hit a front with wind speeds expected to be 20-30 knots and remaining strong before easing on Saturday morning "tending to the south-east".
The leading big boats should cross light air as they move through a high-pressure ridge entering Bass Strait, and again on Saturday night as they reach the Tasmanian coast.
At that time, the mid-field and small boats should still be in winds of 10 to 15 knots, allowing them to stay in touch with the leaders for the race on handicap that is likely to become a tactical battle down the Tasmanian coast.
"We are looking first at some strong southerlies along the coast," said Juan Vila, the Spanish navigator on Bob Oatley's super-maxi Wild Oats XI, which has won seven line-honour titles.
"That is probably the time to keep the boat in one piece, but then it will start being tricky at Green Cape when we get closer to this high-pressure ridge … That will be our first goal we have to deal with – to cross this. And then also towards the end, the typical situation where we can have some troughs in the lee of the Tasman coast."
Stan Honey, navigator on the new American super-maxi Comanche of Jim Clark, welcomes the early front.
"Normally you wouldn't take a brand new boat and have one of its first offshore races be the Hobart," Honey said. "But given the characteristics of the boat, we are happy with the fresh beating in the beginning. And we are happy with the reasonably fresh westerlies.
"But crossing the ridge and then the light air on Saturday night … that worries us because those conditions particularly in the left-over sea would be conditions where we would expect Wild Oats to be very, very good in."
For Tom Addis, navigator on Perpetual Loyal, the forecast offers both opportunity and concerns.
"The boats are so different it comes down to the weather really," Addis said.
"You have to just make gains when you can and manage the losses when it is more their conditions."
For the smaller boats the forecast offers much chance to not just win their division but also to challenge on handicap.
"The southerly does suit us for the star, so we are looking forward to that," said Jennifer Wells, navigator of Roger Hickman's Farr 43 Wild Rose.
"It won't be a comfortable ride, but we will be pushing hard to try keep in relative contact with the big boats in the fleet," Wells said. "Hopefully the northerly will come through in the latter part of the race while these guys [in big boats] are celebrating and enjoying themselves at the dock."
Tom Barker, navigator on the St George Midnight Rambler, the Kerr 40 owned by Ed Psaltis, concurred with Wells.
"Having a southerly at the start we tend to think it plays into the hands of the small boats, in terms of the handicap," Barker said.