No clear winner in J&K exit polls: Will NC-PDP form an impossible alliance?

Most exit polls have revealed that no single party in Jammu and Kashmir can lay a stake to form the government in the state. The polls give an edge to the People’s Democratic Party(PDP) overall, with a steep decline in the seat share of the incumbent, the National Conference. Whilst the numbers predicted by the polls are not set in stone and are defined by a wide margin, there may be variation when the actual results are declared. The exit polls conform to the fact that mainstream political space in the state of Jammu and Kashmir is fragmented.

Whist the Kashmir division of the state is defined by a duopolistic political structure with political competition taking place between the PDP and the National conference, it is oligopolistic in the Jammu division with other players jockeying for political space. While political competition of this nature is well and nice, it does not really bode well for the state. This is primarily because of the larger context and backdrop of politics: the centralising tendencies in the political firmament of the Indian state. The BJP’s resounding victory in the parliamentary elections and its agenda of homogenising the country is one major cause of this centralising tendency. If the BJP monopolises political space, the regional parties may be left as road kill. The corollary to this would be trammelling of regional interests.

This holds a searing resonance for the state of Jammu and Kashmir which enjoys a special relationship with the Centre. The centre piece of this special federalism is the Article 370 and the state subject laws enjoyed by the people of the state. The BJP is dead set against this and wants to abrogate both Article 370 and the state’s state subject laws. Whilst there are legal and political hurdles to this, it, in the final analysis falls in the domain of the possible. The best possible hedge and safeguard against this is the dominance of the state’s politics by a single, largest political party. This is unlikely given that political space in the state is fragmented.

This leaves space for parties other than the NC and the PDP to be key players in terms of government formation. Any of these players-the BJP or the Congress- then become wedge players in the state’s politics. Naturally, the representative character of the NC and the PDP gets diluted here and this compromises to an extent the interests of the state of Jammu and Kashmir. Prudence then suggests that the state’s major regional parties-the NC and the PDP join hands and collaborate. The nature of this alliance could be tactical and the relationship between the two parties could fall along the competition-collaboration spectrum. They could collaborate to defend and promote the state’s interests and compete for the share of the political pie in the state.

This is obviously an ideal type situation or condition. It flounders on the rocks of government formation and the deep, structural animus between the two parties. Having said this, as Napoleon said, the word impossible is found in the dictionary of fools and as Palmerston asserted, ‘there are no permanent friends or enemies in politics’. The same could hold true for the possibility delineated here. The probability of this possibility coming to pass would depend on how the BJP’s politics towards the state unfurls. If the BJP tinkers with Article 370 and the states’ state subject laws, then the NC-PDP alliance would not sound too bizarre.

If , however, it’s the plus ca change, et plus cest la meme chose politics(same old politics), then wedge players in the state become pivotal. Wedge players make for and lead to coalitional politics which could impact and affect governance and other important aspects of politics. More importantly, wedge players weaken the edifice of politics and this holds true for the state of Jammu and Kashmir as well.

The two major political parties of the state-the NC and the PDP- must realise that their motivating premise and raison d’etre is the promotion and defense of the state of Jammu and Kashmir’s interests. They can compete for government formation and it is their right but when and if push comes to shove and when the state’s interests and future are at stake, they should not shy away from collaborating. It is only through a robust and vigorous regional representation and a strong regional voice that the state’s interests can best be promoted and defended. Towards this end, different means can be adopted. In the final analysis, it is the ends which matter; not the means. And if this would mean forging an ‘impossible’ alliance, so be it.