BJP’s wooing of Kashmir may cost the party in Jammu

Has the Bhartiya Janata Party’s decision to focus on Kashmir Valley had an impact on how people living in Jammu region think about the party?

It is a question that seems to be on the minds of many people in the state these days and it could impact the party’s electoral prospects in Jammu where 20 constituencies are going to polls in the fifth and final phase of assembly elections in the state on Saturday.

The stakes are high for BJP in Jammu. The constituencies that will vote on Saturday will largely decide the fate of the BJP and its ambitious Mission 44+ which has suffered a severe jolt in Kashmir Valley. To achieve its goal in the state, the party had shifted its focus on Kashmir, hoping to win at least five seats from aeras where voters traditionally remain away from polling stations due to separatist sentiments.

In fact, the entry of BJP in the state was tailored to the election dynamics and sensibilities of the electorate. In its “Vision Document,” the party made no mention of Article 370. Other than renaming the state as Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh, a proposal to cut short the assembly’s tenure to five years from six and the grant of state subject status to women who have married outside the state and their children, some of the hot-button sensitive issues were missing in the “Vision Document”.

Instead, the party chose the development of the state and the dignified return of Kashmiri Pandits to the Kashmir Valley as its main poll plank which has seemingly not gone down well with people in Jammu, many of whom have been demanding the abrogation of Article 370.

Avenash Khatri, an influential businessmen who was once a strong supporter of BJP in Jammu city, says when Prime Minister Narendra Modi goes to Kashmir, he talks of “pain” and “Kashmiriyat”. “But after the elections in Kashmir Valley were over, he told a rally recently that Jammu has been given step-motherly treatment by all the successive governments of the state. Why doesn’t he mention this in Kashmir?” he asks.

Modi played the Jammu versus Kashmir card at a rally in Jammu on Tuesday. The issues of integration of the state with mainstream India had benefited the BJP politically in the 2008 assembly elections and its acceptance in Jammu gradually became a reality.

“This region has been neglected by all the government and I appeal the people of Jammu that they shouldn’t allow them to open an account here,” Modi said at the rally, referring to the Congress and the Peoples Democratic Party.

But the party’s focus on Kashmir has angered many people here. Ranjeet Singh Maan, another businessman, says, “The BJP has ended up insulting the people of Jammu. Leave aside Article 370, the BJP leaders have even forgotten to mention the people who have suffered at the hands of Pakistan’s firing in the border area of Jammu.” A senior BJP leader admitted there was a feeling that Jammu and Ladakh were “in their pockets” and this could be taken for granted. “So we focused on Kashmir. But the ground, it seems, is slipping away,” he said.

However, BJP’s state spokesperson, Arun Kumar Gupta, says the people of Jammu are facing discrimination at the hands of Kashmir-centric political parties. “Jammu region is facing discrimination on all fronts from the very beginning. We endorse the statement of Prime Minister Modi,” he says.

In an interview to Firstpost, Congress leader Madan Lal Sharma said the BJP exploited the people of Jammu in Lok Sabha elections, “like they did in 2008 when they communally divided the people of the state.”

“Their (BJP’s) dream of forming the government in Jammu and Kashmir will remain a dream. People of Jammu are not fools, even if Modi come to them three time a month,” he said.

Arun Joshi, a noted political commentator writing in The Tribune on Wednesday said, “Travelling across the length and breadth of Jammu, one encounters positive response of people towards the Peoples Democratic Party, hitherto seen as a pure Kashmir-centric party and that too that of Muslims. Today, this party is evoking acceptability among all regions and religions, something akin to the National Conference and the Congress. During the 2008 Assembly elections, when the BJP had polarised the Jammu voters on religious lines over the Amarnath land row agitation, the PDP was seen as a party of Kashmiri Muslims. But, this time around the party has made itself acceptable among Jammu’s Hindus and Sikhs.”

The PDP capitalized on the fear of the Hindu right-wing’s emergence in Kashmir Valley which helped in large voter turnouts in many constituencies which had traditionally stayed away from elections. The party now has seemingly made inroads into the Hindu heartland of Jammu. There is also the factor of PDP wave in the state which, as Joshi put it, may have inclined the people to side with the winning party.

Whether BJP will even manage to achieve its target of 25 seats seems questionable. “The PDP benefited out of the missing BJP’s leadership in Jammu. The party might be able to make inroads in Jammu, but it will not be a significant break,” a noted political analyst told Firstpost.