India Today-CICERO poll: BJP may form govt in Delhi, but Kejriwal still a favourite for CM
Arvind Kejriwal remains a favourite CM candidate with 35 per cent votes. He clearly beats the former BJP CM candidate and now Union Minister, Harsh Vardhan, who got 16 per cent votes.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) might get a majority in the forthcoming Delhi Assembly elections and form the government on its own, an opinion poll conducted jointly by the India Today Group and CICERO suggests. Though the saffron party is likely to win anywhere between 34 and 40 seats in the 70-member House, the difference of votes remains marginally higher - only 3 per cent - from their closest rival, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).
Moreover, BJP's lack of leadership in the National Capital Territory (NCT) is clearly visible by the fact that AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal (35 per cent) has emerged as the most popular choice for the chief minister, followed by Union Minister Dr Harsh Vardhan (19 per cent) at the distant second.
The survey, having a total sample size of 4,273 respondents, was spread across 210 polling stations in all the 70 Assembly constituencies in Delhi.
The survey gives the BJP 39 per cent votes, followed by 36 per cent to the AAP, while the Congress finishes a distant third with 16 per cent votes.
If elections are held today, the BJP would win 34 to 40 seats, followed by 25 to 31 seats to the AAP, which ruled Delhi for 49 days with the support of the Congress in the last Assembly. The Congress tally is likely to fall further from 8 in the last polls to between 3 and 5. Other parties may win 2 seats.
Most preferred CM candidate
Though his party seems to be losing its grip on the Delhi electorate, former chief minister Arvind Kejriwal remains a favourite with 35 per cent votes. He clearly beat the former BJP CM candidate and now Union Minister, Harsh Vardhan, who got 16 per cent votes.
Three-time chief minister and senior Congress leader Sheila Dikshit finished third with 9 per cent votes, closely followed by Delhi Congress president Arvinder Singh Lovely at 8 per cent.
Key issues
Corruption remains the main issue for the Delhi electorate with 20 per cent respondents giving it the maximum weightage. Safety of women, a touching issue in the national capital, was more important to 17 per cent respondents, while water was significant for 15 per cent people.
Thumbs up to Modi government
The performance of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government at the Centre is expected to have more impact on the polls in Delhi than anywhere else in the country. Asked to rate the
performance of the Narendra Modi-led government, 34 per cent felt it was performing beyond expectations while 33 per cent felt it was meeting their expectations. However, as many as 22 per cent felt the central government was underperforming.
An overwhelming 74 per cent people felt that Prime Minister Modi has completely energised the administration, while 62 per cent said he had lifted the image of India across the globe. Around 56 per cent opined that Modi was a decisive leader and was already fulfilling his promises.
However, an overwhelming 48 per cent respondents said Modi has not been able to deliver on his promises. Another 35 per cent people felt that Modi only thinks about himself and not the country. Nearly 46 per cent people felt Modi's Swachh Bharat Abhiyan is just a show-off.
AAP's performance
Even though the AAP did not emerge as the first choice to form the government in Delhi, as many as 35 per cent respondents felt its debut attempt at running the government in the national capital exceeded expectations. Around 32 per cent people felt that the 49-day-long government ruled as per expectations, while 22 per cent felt they were let down by Kejriwal.
In a worrying sign for Kejriwal, Delhiites don't seem to be willing to pardon him for running away from his responsibility with 53 per cent voters feeling that the AAP lacks the maturity to govern. Over 51 per cent respondents said the party cheated people by quitting the government after just 49 days. Around 54 per cent people felt Kejriwal focused more on protests rather than running his government.
However, the AAP chief was praised by over 60 per cent respondents for bringing down corruption during his tenure. The same percentage of voters credited him with bringing down the cost of electricity and water in Delhi. As many as 55 per cent people felt AAP deserved another chance.
Congress slide continues
Over 70 per cent of Delhi voters surveyed in the poll said the Congress is the most corrupt party, while 51 per cent felt that it promotes nepotism. Around 37 per cent people felt that the grand old party is the most faction-ridden and internally divided.
Voting trends
Young voters clearly seem to be divided between the AAP and the BJP, with a little edge to the latter. The opinion poll found that 39 per cent voters in the age group of 18-25 prefer the BJP at the helm, while 38 per cent preferred Kejriwal's party. To add to Rahul Gandhi's woes, only 16 per cent young respondents preferred the Congress.
The BJP emerged as the first choice for female voters too, securing 39 per cent votes in the survey. Around 36 per cent female voters preferred the AAP, while just 17 per cent went with the Sonia Gandhi-led Congress. There was not much difference in the pattern among male respondents.