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Handicapping the Oscar shortlist

Chaz and Roger Ebert in “Life Itself.”Magnolia Pictures
Henry Kissinger and Gerald Ford in “Last Days in Vietnam.”Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library

On Dec. 2 the Motion Picture Academy of Arts and Sciences narrowed the 134 documentaries eligible for an Oscar to a short list of 15.

Before discussing the choices, though, here's a question: Who's doing the picking? According to a Dec. 21, 2013, article in the Los Angeles Times, 67 percent of those in the documentary branch are male, 94 percent are white, and the average age is 63. That makes for . . . well, it sounds like a lot of old white guys voting.

Unsurprisingly, then, women got the short end of the list again this year. Of the eligible films, 37 percent were directed by women. That drops to 27 percent on the short list – four in all: Laura Poitras's "Citizenfour"; Rory Kennedy's "Last Days in Vietnam"; Tia Lessin and Carl Deal's "Citizen Koch"; and Sam Cullman, Jennifer Grausman, and Mark Becker's "Art and Craft" (and note that the latter two were co-directed by men).

Pathetic. Nonetheless, they did better than the Producers Guild, none of whose five best documentary nominees, announced on Dec. 1, were directed by women. And as for the directors branch of the academy, ever since Kathryn Bigelow's groundbreaking win for "The Hurt Locker" in 2009, no other woman has been nominated in the directing category.

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But, demographics aside, the academy chose well. Though none of the films stretch genre conventions, many take on hot-button issues. Ben Cotner and Ryan White's "The Case Against 8" considers the California proposition that forbade gay marriage. Dan Krauss's "The Kill Team" confronts US atrocities in Afghanistan. Jesse Moss's "The Overnighters" critiques economic inequality and social intolerance.

Nick Broomfield's "Tales of the Grim Sleeper" investigates a serial killer. Orlando von Einsiedel's "Virunga" delves into the desperate fight to save the mountain gorillas from extinction. Brian Knappenberger's "The Internet's Own Boy: The Story of Aaron Swartz" makes a case for the tragic computer genius as a martyr of the information wars.

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"Last Days in Vietnam" recalls the fall of Saigon. "Citizen Koch" exposes the billionaire brothers' political ambitions. And "Citizenfour" profiles the fugitive secrets-leaker Edward Snowden.

Poitras's film has the competitive edge. As of this writing it has already won the best documentary prize from critics groups in New York, Los Angeles, and Boston. It should earn an Oscar nomination as well. So too should "Citizen Koch," empowered by left-leaning Hollywood's dismay at the midterm elections. "The Overnighters" arouses feelings about so many issues it should be a lock for a spot, and so should Rory Kennedy's "Last Days in Vietnam," which looks at a situation like the one raging in Iraq and Afghanistan from the privileged perspective of 40 years.

Edward Snowden (left) and Glenn Greenwald in “Citizenfour.”Radius TWC via AP/Radius TWC

The pattern over the past few years has been for a number of "serious" documentaries to be nominated but for a more upbeat, pop cultural or artistic nominee – like "20 Feet From Stardom" (2013), "Searching for Sugar Man" (2012) and "Undefeated" (2011) — to win the Oscar.

The shortlisted films "Art and Craft," Frank Pavich's "Jodorowsky's Dune," Alan Hicks's "Keep On Keepin' On," John Maloof and Charlie Siskel's "Finding Vivian Maier," Wim Wenders and Juliano Ribeiro Salgado's "The Salt of the Earth," and Steve James's "Life Itself" fall into that category.

Somehow I think that "Life Itself," the Roger Ebert documentary which has already won the best documentary award from the National Board of Review, will be the one to get a thumbs up from the academy on Oscar night.

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Related coverage:

- Movie review: 'Life Itself' celebrates Roger Ebert

- 'Last Days in Vietnam' revisits the fall of Saigon

- Edward Snowden's story unfolds in chilling 'Citizenfour'


Peter Keough can be reached at petervkeough@gmail.com.