As the 18th Saarc summit gets underway in Kathmandu, New Delhi would undoubtedly be alert to any talk of elevating China’s status to a full member — for now, China is one of nine observers, including the US, EU, Japan and Myanmar. The traditional thinking in Delhi has been that China’s expansion of its influence and presence, economic and strategic, further southwards would be inimical to India’s interests. Beijing, the argument goes, could offer India’s neighbours an alternative for economic leadership, denting Delhi’s leverage in the regional forum. While China does not geographically belong in South Asia, Beijing’s footprint in the subcontinent has been growing and will likely continue to increase. As the world’s second-largest economy, China is too important to be ignored, and it is unwise to believe it can be kept at bay.
The inevitable expansion of Chinese influence is foretold by Beijing’s building of transport and economic infrastructure, from ports in Pakistan and Sri Lanka to its promise of a $40 billion infrastructure fund from the Silk Road project to Saarc states, and by its offer of $1.6 billion to help Nepal develop its northern border districts. As China is a major economic partner for India too, the challenge for Delhi is to balance Chinese influence while enhancing its own economic cooperation with Beijing.
Delhi must use its predicament as an opportunity to deepen its own ties within and beyond Saarc. In many ways, Saarc has been a near-dysfunctional forum whose observer membership has grown because of South Asia’s geopolitical significance. The region is home to one-fourth of the world’s population but accounts for only 5 per cent of global trade and is poorly connected. This summit’s focus on ratifying agreements on free movement of cargo and passenger vehicles, besides railways, is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s chance to make his case for regional connectivity as an imperative for economic integration. Further east, India should help the BIMSTEC meet its potential in connecting South Asia with Southeast Asia and get on board Beijing’s Silk Road economic corridor. Development of the region is a goal and platform that Delhi can share with Beijing. Otherwise, the region is India’s to lose and Delhi has already lost valuable time.