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Red Sox On Verge Of Big Free Agent Splash: Smart Money Or Desperation?

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This article is more than 9 years old.

Sometimes it’s hard to figure out what the Boston Red Sox are doing. Reports are swirling that the team is close to landing two free agent infielders, the Dodgers’ Hanley Ramirez and the Giants’ Pablo Sandoval, for whom they’re apparently about to commit roughly $190 million. Both are talented players. Both are also a few years removed from their best seasons, when they could reasonably be called stars.

Assuming both these deals become official, do they represent money well spent, or overpriced desperation? The Sox have done plenty of both in recent years.

A decade ago, new owners John Henry and Tom Werner embraced the sabremetric principles that were just becoming the rage in Oakland under Billy Beane. They hired advanced metrics Godfather Bill James as an adviser and a young gun who had grown up reading James’ work, Theo Epstein, as general manager. Epstein’s successor, Ben Cherington, is also cut from the moneyball cloth.

The approach paid quick dividends with a 2004 World Series title, with analytic-friendly acquisitions like Bill Mueller and Kevin Millar playing key roles. The Sox added another title in 2007 with value players like Coco Crisp and Mike Lowell in the lineup. And the 2013 championship club got big contributions from Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino, more players whose value exceeded the traditional stats.

They’ve also exercised discipline by holding the line on players like Johnny Damon, Pedro Martinez and Jacoby Ellsbury, refusing to offer deals that figured to carry past their productive years.

Yet for all their success, the Red Sox have gotten off the disciplined track with many puzzling signings over the past several years. Call it big market pressure to win every year, a problem that’s now swallowing the Yankees whole: when the roster isn’t quite coming together through the methodical approach, throw a big pile of money at a big name player and hope it works out. More often than not, it doesn’t.

It didn’t work out with Edgar Renteria or J.D. Drew. It didn’t work out with Matt Clement or Carl Crawford. It worked out with Daisuke Matsuzaka for the first two years of a five-year deal, then not so much. It didn’t work out with John Lackey until he rebounded from injuries and ineffectiveness with a decent third season in Boston in 2013 and helped the team to a title.

It’s all added up to a strange mix of shrewd pickups and expensive flops that’s had Boston bouncing between the penthouse and outhouse in recent years. Since making the playoffs in six of seven seasons between 2003 and 2009, the Sox have now missed in four of the past five seasons, including two last-place finishes. Yet the one time they did qualify, they won the World Series.

Ramirez, who turns 31 next month, is a talented hitter who has been limited by injuries in recent years. His two best seasons came in 2008 and 2009 in Miami. Pundits note that he’s now a step slow at shortstop and belongs at third base. Yet the Red Sox are looking to bring in Sandoval, the former Giant, at that spot. The Kung Fu Panda, a popular member of three championship Giants teams, put up an outstanding season in 2011 but hasn’t matched that level since.

The team seems to have some options in utilizing their potential new players. Maybe Ramirez gets shifted to the outfield with youngster Xander Bogaerts remaining at short, and then eventually replaces 39-year-old David Ortiz as the designated hitter. Or maybe Boegaerts gets dealt for pitching help, the same way Ramirez was back when he was a Boston shortstop prospect in a trade for Josh Beckett.

Maybe Cherington envisions a power explosion with Sandoval and Ramirez popping a lot of right-handed homers over Fenway Park’s Green Monster (though Sandoval is a switch hitter who would get the majority of his at-bats lefty).

These are the kinds of moves that excite the fans in the winter, and, if all goes right, work out on the field as well. But there’s a lot of Carl Crawford-J.D. Drew potential too.

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