Adani Power may report Q2 loss Rs 594 cr: CNBC-TV18 Poll

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Adani Power is likely to report a consolidated loss of Rs 594 crore in July-September quarter compared to reported loss of Rs 303 crore in previous quarter, according to the average of estimates of analysts polled by CNBC-TV18.

Total income may fall 28.6 percent to Rs 3,733 crore in second quarter of current financial year 2014-15 compared to Rs 5,225 crore in first quarter.

Consolidated core operating profit (ex-forex) is seen falling 32.1 percent quarter-on-quarter to Rs 1,151 crore and margin may fall 160 basis points to 30.8 percent in the quarter gone by.

Standalone loss of the company is expected to be at Rs 425 crore as against loss of Rs 180 crore on sequential basis.

Total income from operations is likely to fall 19.9 percent year-on-year to Rs 2,404 crore in Q2FY15. Core operating profit (ex-forex) may decline 39 percent Q-o-Q to Rs 493 crore and margin may fall 640 bps to 20.5 percent during the quarter.

Expectations

Plant shutdowns in September at Mundra and Tiroda may impact sales for the quarter along with possible under recovery in certain plants.

Analysts expect drop in generation after the stay on compensatory tariffs, which may weigh on earnings

Despite lower fuel cost estimates (down 6 percent Q-o-Q) due to reduction in imported fuel prices, analysts expect losses to inch up even higher

Plant load factor at Mundra unit declined sharply (59 percent versus 87 percent in the June quarter) as 3 X 660 MW units (Mundra IV) were shut since late August due to non-recovery of cash from SEBs against compensatory tariff booked.

Already loss making Tiroda (2 units shut for some days in September) and Kawai (1 unit shut for a few days in September) too are expected to generate 6 percent and 4 percent Q-o-Q lower power

Things to watch out for

APTEL’s final order on Mundra compensatory tariff

Coal supply situation from Bunyu

Linkage coal supply for Mundra – IV / Tiroda

Permanent linkage for Tiroda – II and Kawai

The big announcement in September quarter is Adani Power’s acquisition of the Udipi Plant in Karnataka from Lanco Infratech for an enterprise value of Rs 6,000 crore.